OPED | Saturday, March 7, 2009 | Email | Print | 
Bengal: the night deepens
Udayan Namboodiri
Opportunism and the ethics deficit apart, the Congress-Trinamool deal makes one wonder why Mamata decided to scatter her post-Nandigram advantage
In my 2006 book, Bengal’s night without end (India First, 503 pages), I had used the imagery of darkness to convey the lot of 85 million Bengalis suffering under the yoke of a pernicious regime. The metaphor seemed to have clicked and many people agreed with my central argument that only a free, fair election held under complete federal supervision could bring about a new dawn, i.e. freedom from a brutal, thieving, Marxist-Leninist system. That hasn’t happened and so the night rolled on. The book has stopped selling, but I suspect it still enjoys recall because this week, just after Mamata Banerjee and Pranab Mukherjee announced their electoral alliance, a leading intellectual of Kolkata rang me for my views in night-morning terms.
I told him, “the night has deepened”. And here is why.
In the Lookback section, The Pioneer’s Kolkata correspondent, Saugor Sengupta, has lucidly described how thin the ice is for the alliance. If, say, Pranab Mukherjee had proclaimed “over my dead body” to the humiliating terms set by Mamata, the denizens of 10, Janpath must have snapped back “so be it”. The long face that the veteran weatherer of many a storm wore on Sunday said it all. Even before the wrangling over seat sharing has officially begun in Kolkata, the partners are preparing for the end game. The dynamite for destruction has been ordered even before the foundation has been laid. Trinamool supporters recall Mamata’s fiery speech in Parliament in 2003, when she accused the Congress, her ally in the 2001 Assembly polls, of “betrayal”. In that round, the Congress had gleefully extricated itself from oblivion by riding piggyback on Trinamool’s popularity. Yet, it found the time to field “independents’ in many Trinamool stronghold, thereby cutting into the vote share and gifting as many as 25 seats to the Marxists. Mamata had proclaimed “Never again”. The apprehension, therefore, of another stab in the back, is already palpable.
It’s just not disagreement over seats, I’m talking about visceral hatred.To Trinamool types, the Congress is nothing but a band of Communist retainers. Look at the top. Pranab Mukherjee bought votes from Leftist MLAs to win his first Rajya Sabha seat from the state back in 1993. This got out only because Jyoti Basu had a rare weak moment. In the post-1998 era, the stereotypical Bengal Congressman is somebody who shouts anti-Left slogans by day and cuts secret deals with the Communist aparatchik after dusk. To the Communists, the Congress is only a buffer against Trinamool expansion. This image got solidified after 2004 when the Congress-led UPA became a suppliant to the consents (and otherwise) of the Karat couple.
Now, given Mamata’s post-Nandigram popularity, which is reflected in the results of the 2008 rural elections and four by-polls since 2006, one wonders as to the great need for a change of heart in 2009. A sham ‘Mahajot’ now could get Trinamool at best a dozen seats. But what would it do with them? Be part of a possible humungous central coalition that would include even the Left? Then what about its very raison de etre? Or, would it do another volte face in favour of the NDA and thereby lose the hard-gained Muslim vote? Remaining a tiny group in Parliament would give Trinamool the elbow room it badly needs in the next 24 months. It would also help avoid ugly situations that are inevitable if you have the Congress as an ally. By the way, the generation that recalls Congress goonda raj of the 1970s is still around.
On the other hand, what would Trinamool have gained from equidistance? Consider:
1. Four corner fight in 2009 splits the anti-Left vote leading to narrow wins for Communists in about 32 of the 42 seats in West Bengal. The Left’s all-India kitty, though considerably reduced from the 2004 situation, would make it a valued partner for another UPA farce. More Common Minimum Programmes, more tripping and scheming, leading to total discredit for both tickets in the 2011 election.
2. Congress-Left combine in power in Delhi from 2009 on leads to more land grab and Singur-like sweetheart deals. Mamata’s popularity soars in direct proportion to Communist barbarity and Congress toadyism.Expect repeat of 1977.
In 2004, the Congress won six seats in north Bengal only because of Muslim anathema to Trinamool’s NDA linkage. Now that Mamata has left the saffronites, her stock with the Muslims is climbing. As Idris Ali (The Other Voice), points out, she is undoubtedly the most popular leader for West Bengal’s 26 per cent Muslim population at the present time. Meanwhile, the Congress’ titans in Bengal are either dead or fading away. Malda strongman, ABA Ghani Khan Chaudhiri, died in 2006. Priyaranjan Dasmunsi is ailing and out of action. Adhir Choudhuri of Behrampore is weakened by factionalism. And Pranab Mukherjee, whose place in Bengal politics depends on keeping the Marxists in good humour, is in nuclear winter.
So, Trinamool’s gaze should be fixed on the 2011 Assembly election and it ought to treat the 2009 round as just a small formality. After all, this party has no national ambitions. In the Vajpayee era, the party had 10 MPs, each one a symbol of good behaviour (read dumbinaction)largely because matters of national import was hardly their speciality. As for raising the occasional storm, one Mamata Banerjee is enough.
A four-corner fight would have assured Trinamool 6 seats at the very least. But, the bigger satisfaction is that the Congress would be been wiped out because Trinamool’s growing popularity would cut into its votes. Maybe this would ensure Leftist wins, yet that’s not as bad as a Congress consolidation. There was little fear of the Congress repaying the complement in Trinamool’s south Bengal strongholds.
In short, the anti-Left space must be hogged. People must be convinced that they’d be only helping the CPI(M) by voting for non-Trinamool candidates. Besides, what is Mamata’s stated strategic objective: ridding Bengal, and by extension India, of Communists. The Leftist scourge cannot be diminished through Lok Sabha seats. She can only do it by polarising Bengal.
In its decade-long existence, Trinamool has wasted much time as an ally of this national party or that one. Result: it grew only vertically and that too in the Kolkata agglomerate. But the land struggle has changed that. The January 2008 Balagarh Assembly by-election’s result surprised all. This seat was contested four-way and Trinamool fell short of the first place by just 8,410 votes. Some drew the wrong lessons; said Mamata would have won it if only she had consented to seat adjustment requests from the BJP or the Congress. But, on closer examination it was found that going it alone gave Trinamool the chance to actually eat into the Marxists’ vote base. Now, that’s something in West Bengal.
There is a national lesson here; its not just a state-level strategic blunder. Those who once proclaimed ‘a week is a long time in politics’ to justify short term gains, are now realising their folly. Look around at the humiliation that our ‘national parties’ are taking from tiny partners. It is happening because of their craze for winning at any cost. The only person who doesn’t need allies today is Mayawati, because she realised early the power of tactical retreats. In politics, it’s important to remain faithful to strategy: a setback today is not as bad as a catastrophe later.
-- The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneeer
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