EDITS | Thursday, December 3, 2009 | Email | Print | 
US policy will distract India
Shobori Ganguli
US President Barack Obama has finally declared that American troops will be on their way home from Afghanistan in July 2011, a decade after the world’s sole superpower declared war on terror, a war yet unsuccessful. Inexplicably, Mr Obama ordered a simultaneous escalation of the ongoing war with 30,000 more troops to be expressly despatched to Afghanistan who will “help create the conditions for the United States to transfer responsibility to the Afghans”. Republican rival Senator John McCain predictably pointed out, “The way that you win wars is to break the enemy’s will, not to announce dates that you are leaving.” However, truth is between two of America’s Republican and Democrat Presidents in the past decade, if one went blundering in Asia, the other seems to be floundering.
That Mr Obama was charting an exit route from Afghanistan when he was in Beijing a fortnight ago was apparent in the joint statement he issued with his Chinese counterpart, Mr Hu Jintao. Embracing China as America’s most credible global partner, economic and political, Mr Obama stressed on “our mutual interest in security and stability of Afghanistan and Pakistan”, adding that the two must work together to bring about “more stable, peaceful relations in all of South Asia”. In essence, pushed against the wall in Afghanistan, and in Pakistan as well, and aware that the Americans are running out of ideas and influence, Mr Obama appointed China as the new custodian of peace and stability in Asia, including monitoring India and Pakistan.
In itself, Mr Obama’s decision to exit Afghanistan is not altogether misplaced. After all, the US is suffering from intense war fatigue. With 100,000 troops in Iraq and 68,000 in Afghanistan, the US war on terror has been both a financial and emotional drain on the American people for far too long. With the additional despatch announced this week, emotions are bound to run high. A Gallup survey poll released on Tuesday says only 35 per cent Americans are with Mr Obama on this war, 55 per cent clearly disapproving. From a domestic point of view, therefore, it makes ample sense for Mr Obama to exit the Asian theatre of war, a conflict that has at least ensured that American soil has not been a terror target after September 11, 2001.
While Mr Obama may well wish to hand over the baton to China, he must know that, unlike Pakistan, China will be no political or strategic myrmidon. All along the US war on terror Pakistan served as the ideal client state whose soil was liberally used by American troops to launch offensives in Afghanistan and Taliban-controlled Pakistan. As Pakistan got increasingly Talibanised, Washington started calling the shots directly from Islamabad. However, once the most trusted ally, Pakistan today has outlived its utility for the US in this war on terror. Indeed, after limitless casualties and millions of dollars gone, the Obama Administration has come to the conclusion that America’s war on terror has been counter-productive. War has actually led to an unprecedented regrouping of terror groups in a region the US troops have so far presided over. Time therefore, it feels, to seek assistance from an Asian giant like China which wields the necessary influence on Pakistan to handle Afghanistan.
However, Mr Obama’s freshly unveiled AfPak policy is of grave import for a country like India that continues to be a victim of terror and sits in a tense neighbourhood. While the US President may feel China has the required credentials to look after peace and stability in all of South Asia, China’s aggressive posturing against India in recent months cannot be overlooked. It is another matter that the Indian leadership has been unable to convey this clear and present threat to the Americans in so many words. In what would easily go down as one of the most tepid US-India summits in recent years, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Washington failed to register a strong protest with Mr Obama for hyphenating India and Pakistan in his joint statement with China. “We did not, as such, seek any help,” Mr Singh merely said, admitting, “It came up as we reviewed the world situation.”
If indeed China is anointed Asia’s guardian of peace and stability it spells trouble for India. As the most trusted ally of the US, Pakistan’s status never really impacted India. The years of US military engagement in the region has only seen India grow from strength to strength — economic, political and strategic. Since 2001, even as India has sought its rightful place on the global stage, Pakistan has hurtled downhill, turning into a failed state, a rogue state, and a mock democracy where jihadis run amok. In a sense, therefore, despite being America’s popular choice in the war on terror, Pakistan never really challenged India’s position, regional or global. Also, American presence and interests in the region have prevented Pakistan from a military engagement with India.
However, Washington will not be able to remote control Beijing as it did Islamabad. China has regional and global aspirations, is a rapidly expanding economic power, hopes to be a superpower by 2020, and is intensely conscious of India as a credible rival in that race to the top. Already, recent months have witnessed renewed aggression from China, both verbal and physical, along its border with India. That it is seeking to prevent India from emerging as a strong Asian power centre has been apparent for some time now. If China now gets global — read American — legitimacy to monitor India’s relations with Pakistan, the scenario is not too difficult to envision.
Hitherto, China has been overtly twisting India’s arm along the disputed border with routine troop deployment and massive infrastructure build-up. Covertly, it has helped Pakistan against India, even clandestinely sponsoring its nuclear programme. In short, China has had a traditional contain-India policy that actively employs Pakistan. After the Americans exit the region and if China emerges as the Asian moderator, it will use every trick in the trade to needle India, all in the name of ‘encouraging’ peace and stability in Asia. While the Chinese posturing may not necessarily bring war clouds over the region, the pressure would be enough for India to get distracted from its rightful aspirations. Time New Delhi woke up to this possibility.
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