On the eve of what could turn out to be a momentous week — incidentally the last of 2011 — in India’s constitutional evolution, none can be blamed for saying he or she is thoroughly confused. So much so, that the possibility of the week ending in disarray or a damp squib cannot be ruled out either. The questions facing us now are:
- Can India get a Lokpal law before the year is out?
- Would the proposed Lokpal Bill receive the endorsement of both Houses of Parliament?
- Will the minority quota uproar derail the discussion in and outside Parliament?
- Assuming it is passed, how effective will the Lokpal law be?
- If ambitious members of Team Anna decide it is unsatisfactory, will their leader carry out his threat of courting mass arrest?
- If the jail bharo movement is a success, would it dramatically alter the country’s political contours?
In other words, the spectre of uncertainty is haunting India even as economic indices continue their downslide, sending shivers across the board. That the proposed Lokpal Bill is weak and ineffective is almost a truism. By leaving the CBI out of its ambit for all practical purposes, the Government has rendered it toothless at the very outset. There are several other infirmities, particularly regarding the system proposed for setting up Lokayukta mechanisms in the States that have immediately attracted widespread criticism. But there is nothing more sinister than the move to introduce quotas in the Lokpal structure. This political landmine appears to have been deliberately planted to make the Bill so controversial that its passage through Parliament becomes impossible.
There is discernible desperation on the Government’s part to wrest some mileage from a situation where it has been pushed to the wall by an aggressive Team Anna, a mercurial Mamata Banerjee and a strident BJP-Left combine. After a succession of scams starting 2008, a series of electoral setbacks and ignominious retreat on the FDI in multi-brand retail issue, the Congress evidently decided to deploy its unfailing divide-and-rule missile. It hopes that will dissipate the Opposition, secure gains for the party’s heir-apparent in the crucial Uttar Pradesh elections and divert attention both from Anna Hazare’s agitation as well as the gigantic scandals. It is possible that the party may indeed gain short-term benefits. The quota pill often acts like Viagra although its effects are short-lived.
But as we saw in the case of VP Singh’s Mandal bomb, quota politics can devour its promoters while extracting a high toll on the national fabric. Perhaps the Congress has floated a trial balloon by exceeding the 50 per cent limit on reservations (in the Lokpal committee) set by successive Supreme Court judgements. If not amended before it becomes law, the nine-member Lokpal will have five seats in the reserved category — one each for SCs, STs, OBCs, women and minorities. That would leave only four members to be drawn from the general category. Ironically, the high quantum of quota has sought to be enacted in a body that has nothing to do with job-creation or educational opportunities. If this passes muster, time is not far when similar reservations shall be mooted for other statutory bodies like the Election Commission, Central and State Vigilance Commissions and so on. And from there to reservations in legislatures and the judiciary is a small step. If Lokpal can have more than 50 per cent reservation, why can’t Government jobs or seats in educational institutions?
More importantly, once Lokpal has a minority quota why can’t every other arena where SC/ST/OBC reservations apply? If Lokpal does not adhere to the provisions of Articles 15 and 16 of the Constitution, which empowers the Government to make special provisions only for Socially and Educationally Backward Classes (a euphemism for Other Backward Castes), apart from SCs and STs, why should other statutory or constitutional bodies? Although some States starting with Congress-ruled Andhra Pradesh, initiated experiments to circumvent the ban on religion-based reservations by declaring entire communities “backward”, the jury is still out on its legality. The matter is pending before the Supreme Court, although the Andhra Pradesh High Court has upheld the validity of this devious route and Muslims enjoy quota benefits in the State.
If the Lokpal Bill in its current form is passed by the Houses of Parliament, the Supreme Court will be required to take an early and final call on two complex issues. First, should the 50 per cent ceiling on quotas be scrapped, and second, are religion-based reservations permissible? This may be pure speculation, but the Supreme Court could opt for the line of least resistance and declare that an inclusive approach to the institution of Lokpal does not fall within the ambit of reservations as such and could be permitted without setting a precedent. Alternatively, it could bow to political clamour for lifting both the bans on the ground that these limits were arbitrarily fixed by the Court, for the Constitution is silent on the permissible quantum of reservations.
Also, if large sections of minorities, especially Muslims, are found to be socially and educationally backward, they could be entitled to quota benefits at least within the 27 per cent reserved for OBCs. After all, even the Mandal Commission recommended reservations amounting to 2.8 per cent of the OBC quota for backward Muslim castes. At present 40 Muslim castes in Uttar Pradesh are eligible for getting benefits under Mandal. If this percentage is pushed to four and more Muslims are brought within its ambit, barring the creamy layer, what is wrong with that?
However, the issue is not about technicalities. It is the political motive behind the move to mandatorily include a minority member in the Lokpal and also reserve four per cent jobs for them (read Muslims), that is important. Congress knows that once it lets the genie out of the bottle it can never be pushed back. Dr BR Ambedkar had reluctantly accepted the demand for 22 per cent combined SC/ST reservations in the Constituent Assembly, but stipulated that the “crutch” would have to be discarded after 10 years. It is 62 years since the Constitution was promulgated and the “crutch” now covers 50 per cent!
The Congress has attempted a characteristically too-clever-by-half ploy with its twin quota gambit. If the Lokpal Bill falls in Parliament on diverse grounds, it can always blame the Opposition especially BJP for blocking passage of a piece of legislation the ruling party did not want in the first place. Meanwhile the quota-within-job quota is a lollipop to wean away Muslims from the two regional chieftains in Uttar Pradesh. They will have difficulty opposing it, but know in their hearts that OBCs would be upset at the curtailment of job benefits they currently enjoy.
Since OBCs generally do not vote for Congress in Uttar Pradesh, the party has little to lose. However, irrespective of whether we give ourselves the long-awaited Lokpal, another round of competitive quota conflict has been unleashed. One can only hope that the diabolical plan for minority appeasement by discarding constitutional stipulations does not unleash another bout of communal violence. Lokpal or no Lokpal, India is the loser in the Congress’s battle of wits with Anna Hazare.
