In a developing country of more than a billion people, the phrase ‘population explosion’ has negative connotations. But, experts believe India can leverage its vast human capital to its advantage. According to the US-based National Bureau of Asian Research, over the next two decades India will witness a huge surge in its working population, much of which will be highly educated, and this can only serve to further the country’s economic growth. By 2030, the median age of the Indian population will be around 32 years, and almost 68 per cent of its estimated 1.5 billion strong people at that time will be of working age, generally defined as those between the ages of 15 and 64. What will make this huge group particularly powerful is that it will be a highly educated group of young men and women. The Vienna Institute of Demography estimates that by 2030, about 125 million working-age people in India will have a masters degree or a doctorate — more than any country in the world. Already, India is home to 60 million people with tertiary degrees — much more than Japan, Russia and even the US. Yet, even as recently as 1990, India had only 17 million people with tertiary degrees. This shows the long distance the country has covered in a relatively short time. It also points to the large potential that exists to not just better these figures but also close in on China — both in terms of population growth and highly qualified personnel. But China, according to experts, will continue to have an edge over India with regard to mass education. Today, almost every Chinese is at least literate, while one-third of Indians have never been to school — an indication of how much needs to be done to effectively educate them to harness the country’s tremendous human potential.
In the long-term, though, India holds an advantage. China will be a decidedly older society in 2030. Its working age population will peak around 2015, after which it will enter a stage of long-term de-population. With more retired people around, the social costs of maintaining them would also be high, eating into that country’s income. In contrast, a larger number of people in India will be gainfully employed and be contributing to the country’s economy. But these advantages should not mean that we brush away the dangers of an uncontrolled population rise. After all, with 1.2 billion — and still counting — people to feed, India is faced with an ever-increasing pressure on its resources. Even the availability of basic amenities like clean drinking water and sanitation is a dream for a large part of our population living in villages — and increasingly in urban centres. A vast number of them live on Government dole. Finally, let’s not forget that at least 50 per cent of the country’s population still lives on less than Rs 90 a day.
