While Mitt Romney is the overwhelming favourite to win the New Hampshire presidential primary, the size of his expected victory could help shape upcoming contests in South Carolina and Florida.
Mr Romney’s five opponents will try to shrug off a convincing victory as the expected outcome for a former Massachusetts Governor who owns a vacation home here. But a narrow win in the nation’s first presidential primary — or a surprisingly strong finish from one of his rivals — will be played up as more evidence that Republicans still have their doubts about him.
Those doubts were on display in Dixville Notch, the tiny New Hampshire village that traditionally votes at midnight. Mr Romney and Jon Huntsman each received two of the six votes cast; Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul received a vote apiece.
The rest of New Hampshire voters go to the polls after receiving months of attention from the Republican candidates and witnessing an increasingly sharp tone in the intraparty struggle for the nomination.
“If I am President of the United States, I will not forget New Hampshire,” Mr Romney said during a Monday night rally in Bedford, hinting at the impact of Tuesday’s contest while surrounded on by his wife, children and grandchildren.
None of Mr Romney’s rivals has proved to be a consistent and credible threat to the former Massachusetts Governor. The latest to emerge from the pack is Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator who used a passion for social conservatism and a populist economic message to come within eight votes of Mr Romney in Iowa’s caucuses.
In New Hampshire, “second place would be a dream come true”, Mr Santorum said on Monday as he raced through a campaign schedule that spanned more than 14 hours.
New Hampshire, which allows independents to vote in its primary, will help decide whether a candidate with Mr Santorum’s focus can appeal to a broader electorate, as would be required in a successful general election. On the other side, Mr Huntsman is relying upon independents and moderate Republicans to fuel a late surge to relevancy.
A former Ambassador to China in the Obama Administration, Mr Huntsman spent the last 48 hours trying to capitalise on a notable debate exchange with Mr Romney. A relentless critic of President Barack Obama, Mr Romney had criticised Mr Huntsman for serving as an Ambassador in the Obama Administration. Mr Huntsman countered that he had put his country ahead of partisan politics.
Mr Huntsman, a former Utah Governor, aired a new television ad highlighting his call for national unity and adopted a new campaign slogan, borrowing “Country First” from 2008 GOP nominee, Senator John McCain.
Polls suggested Mr Huntsman may be on the rise, but New Hampshire voters will decide if it it’s too little, too late. Having skipped Iowa to focus on New Hampshire, he could be pushed out of the nomination race if he finishes below third place in the six-man field.
Mr Huntsman told supporters packed into the Exeter Town Hall on Monday night to remember one word as they head to the polls: “Trust.”
There are multiple wild cards, however, including Mr Paul, the 76-year-old Texas Congressman who has worked for months to build a strong organisation here and enjoys a passionate following. He is sometimes marginalised because of a quirky demeanor and unconventional foreign policy, but he has run a strong second to Mr Romney in the New Hampshire polls for much of the year.
And there’s former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who may have a tremendous impact on the contest even if he doesn’t fare well personally. Picking up on Democratic criticism, Mr Gingrich and his allies have fuelled attacks on Mr Romney’s business career that intensified in recent days.
“Now we’ll see if he has the broad shoulders and can stand the heat,” said Mr Gingrich, whose positive message in Iowa became distinctly negative following his disappointing finish there.
John Anderson, a New Hampshire Republican activist, is deciding between former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and Mr Paul when he heads to the polls. Asked what he thinks of Mr Romney, the field’s front-runner, the retired construction worker wrinkles his nose.
“My problem with him is he’s been on both sides of every issue that there possibly is,” the resident of the town of Hollis said, citing the former Massachusetts Governor’s push for health care reform in his state but repudiation of a similar federal programme now. “If Romney is the candidate for the Republican Party, he’ll have my vote. But in the primary, most of us are having a real terrible time figuring out where to go.”
