In the wake of the implementation of the Mandal Commission Report by VP Singh and its fierce fallout, Syed Shahabuddin, then infamous for making incendiary remarks (a Digvijay Singh of his times?) suggested that India ought to have a fully caste-based quota policy wherein each caste and community should get reservation in Government jobs in proportion to its numbers. Naturally this drew frenzied protest from analysts and politicians alike. It was pointed out that, for instance, Kayasths who number less than two per cent of Hindus but occupy a very high share of Government jobs on account of their traditional skills, would be reduced to insignificance to the detriment of the administration. Besides, many had hoped that the Mandal tide would eventually get contained if not rolled back. Upper castes, already miffed with Mandal, demanded that the poor among them should be entitled to reservation even more than certain affluent middle castes such as Yadavs and Kurmis. They warned that these castes, whom my Dalit friend and The Pioneer columnist Chandrabhan Prasad calls the Upper Shudras, would grab the lion’s share of the quotas. Many argued that SC and ST families who had availed of quota benefits for two generations should be excluded from reservations. Way back in 1991, Rajiv Gandhi had solemnly pledged that if the Congress came back to power, it would implement a 10 per cent quota for economically under-privileged sections of the upper castes.
After two decades of Mandalisation, matters have come full circle. The poor among upper castes are nowhere close to getting their due. Mandalite politicians are busy reinventing Mandal by turning his recommendations on their head. Practitioners of vote-bank politics are out in large numbers in the electoral arena of Uttar Pradesh, offering varying percentages of reservation to Muslims, constitutional prescriptions be damned. It is time for the ‘Upper Shudras’ to face the music from those wooing the ‘Lower Shudras’, minor OBC castes like Mallah, Rajbhar, Kalwar, etc. When Socialist stalwart and former Bihar Chief Minister Karpoori Thakur designated some communities (including his own barber caste) as MBC or EBC (most or extremely backward classes) little did he realise that a quarter-century later that would become the dominant discourse of caste politics in north India. This was most effectively practised by Mr Nitish Kumar, a Kurmi, who deftly played the MBC card to divide the OBCs of Bihar into Yadavs and non-Yadavs and drew a smattering of Muslims into his rainbow alliance, isolating Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav and severely denting the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) phalanx. His success in Bihar has spawned imitators; no political party is now immune to playing aggressive caste politics. I fear the time is not far when Syed Shahabuddin’s frightening formula of converting India into a fragmented republic of conflicting castes will inch towards reality.
The irony is that the two consummate players of Mandal politics, Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh and Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar, are on the back foot today with the lesser OBCs snapping at their feet, while Muslims are being so aggressively wooed by the Congress that the Yadav leaders’ confidence gets progressively shattered. Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav’s record in office during his multiple terms as Chief Minister not being as bad as the non-performing Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav’s, he can still hope to overcome the challenges facing him. The prospect of the Samajwadi Party, in its new, reformed Akhilesh avatar, emerging as the single-largest party in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly is, in fact, reasonably bright. But with several powerful contenders vying to claim a sizeable chunk of the OBC and Muslim pie, the contest just got tougher. In the glory days of ‘backward’ politics, Charan Singh had forged a rainbow coalition, which he graphically described as AJGAR (Ahir-Jat-Gujjar-Rajput). To this VP Singh added Muslim, making it MAJGAR! Such an all-encompassing caste alliance is inconceivable today as the phalanx gets progressively fractured. Political parties have delved deeper to promote these fractures, while the Congress-led Union Government works overtime to economically divide communities and magnetise votes towards the party, especially in Uttar Pradesh where it dropped out of the electoral map a couple of decades ago.
The adage ‘Sow the wind and thou shalt reap the whirlwind’ is most appropriate for the brand of politics being pursued by all parties in Uttar Pradesh. Caste-community politics is the hallmark of economic under-development. When people lose hope in the impartiality of the administration and have no faith in parties’ ability to deliver good governance, they turn for crumbs to their own caste/community leaders. Ms Mayawati promised her core Dalit voters empowerment. This was a more enticing idea than jobs, which the Dalits, particularly her own Jatav community, knew had reached the ceiling. This was easier to commit and even deliver than concrete economic benefits. But all parties in Uttar Pradesh know that it is not enough to have a strong core vote. As long as Ms Mayawati’s was a single community party, she could not aspire to rule over the State on her own strength. But once she made the transformation to Sarvajan politics, at least for display, even the upper castes that once reviled her, fell in line. These, however, are shifting alliances: Here today, gone tomorrow. So it is the dexterity of the leader that can determine if the core voter can be retained while attracting other caste vote blocs. This is easier done by regional or Mandalite parties than national parties, which perforce have to be more inclusive. To that extent the Congress’s aggressive wooing of Muslims has the inherent danger of polarising the majority community, a phenomenon that will primarily benefit the BJP.
Till a couple of elections ago, only Muslims voted tactically. In other words, since the rise of the BJP, they would assess just 48 hours prior to polling as to the strongest anti-BJP candidate and transfer their votes en masse for him/her. Now others have wizened up to the idea and that’s giving jitters to all. It won’t be surprising if caste groups, big or small, exercise their franchise the same way as Muslims have done all these years. The question, however, is whether Muslims who account for a whopping 18.5 per cent of the electorate and are known to vote to the last man and burqa-clad woman would vote as a bloc this time. If they do, the party they select will certainly emerge the victor. But from all accounts, they are not frightfully impressed with the Congress’s antics of promising them job quotas of varying percentages. That Mr Rahul Gandhi had to face vociferous protests at Azamgarh’s Shibli College campus is indicative of the Muslims’ lack of conviction in his party’s opportunistic politics over quotas and the Batla House episode. They may have voted in large numbers for the Congress in the Lok Sabha election because the felt it was important to keep the BJP out of power in New Delhi, but they are unlikely to replicate that for the Assembly poll for they know that, however hard Mr Gandhi and sister Priyanka may try, the party is nowhere in the reckoning for power in Lucknow.
With even the Muslims likely to fracture their vote, Uttar Pradesh is truly up for grabs. The ‘lesser’ OBCs have realised the power of their vote, thanks to the emergence of MBC politics, promoted by Ms Mayawati and the BJP. The Kushwaha episode, contrary to its vociferous denunciation by the urban elite, may actually fetch additional votes for the BJP, which is seeking to forge an upper caste-non-Yadav OBC combine — a formula successfully implemented in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Even as the national parties try to replicate the politics of vote-fracturing, I believe this is the last election in Uttar Pradesh that will be almost purely caste-based. Impatience with the lack of development is bound to frustrate voters to the point where they will revolt and opt for good governance. With Mandalism gradually ebbing away, non-dominant OBCs asserting themselves, Muslim tactical voting plans being replicated across the board, the day is not far off when the electorate of Uttar Pradesh will revolt. Let’s hope that day comes sooner rather than later.
