An election, we are led to believe, is an opportunity for change. A closely contested election to the State Assembly in Punjab, due on January 30 between old rivals, the ruling Shiromani Akali Dali (Badal) — Bharatiya Janata Party combine, on the one hand, and the Congress, on the other, however, provides little promise of significant transformation, whatever the outcome. Both formations have enduring histories of corruption and misrule, and populist manifestoes and election rhetoric notwithstanding, there is little to suggest that this is about to change.
The Sanjha Morcha, an alternative front bringing together Shiromani Akali Dal-breakaway Manpreet Badal’s Punjab People’s Party and the Communist Party of India, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and SAD (Longowal), has the capacity to marginally compound an anti-incumbency vote against the SAD(Badal)–BJP combine, but is unlikely to prove decisive in determining the eventual electoral outcome. Mr Manpreet Badal is Akali Dal chief Parkash Singh Badal’s estranged nephew and former Finance Minister in his Government, and has thrice been returned as MLA from the Gidarbaha constituency. His family lineage, his strong stance against ‘misrule’ by the SAD, and a reputation for personal integrity will certainly help his party shave off precious points from the committed SAD-Badal vote, though the PPP’s allies in the Sanjha Morcha have found little resonance among the Punjab electorate in recent polls.
An encouraging aspect of the present election is that, despite the bitterness of rivalries, the traditional Sikh identity politics that SAD took recourse to in the past appears to have been pushed out, with development and corruption being projected as the principal platforms, albeit by contenders that have a dubious track record on both parameters. Indeed, the recent fortunes of SAD-Amritsar, led by Mr Simranjit Singh Mann, which continues to advocate Khalistani separatism, are a fair index of the declining appeal of this particular ideological stance. Mr Mann’s SAD-Amritsar is contesting all 117 seats in this Assembly election. However, it failed to win even a single seat in the 2007 Assembly poll, and failed, again, to secure any representation in the prestigious Shiromani Gurudwara Prabandhak Committee elections held in September 2011.
An under-current of religious sectarianism continues, however, to taint the electoral contest, as all major political formations in the State set out to woo a multiplicity of influential Deras, including the largest and controversial Dera Sacha Sauda, in Punjab, whose block votes could easily swing the electoral outcome. The downside of such mobilisation of support is that, as in the past, in the post-electoral scenario, these Deras attract retaliation, including violence, from various Panthic (Sikh majoritarian religious) parties and radical formations, who regard the Deras as ‘deviationists’ or apostate groups. The possibility of delivering, en masse, the votes of lakhs of their followers to the party endorsed by each of their leaders, has, nevertheless, brought political parties flocking to the Deras as the election draws closer.
Despite residual dangers, Punjab has, in fact, remained a fairly peaceful State in the post-militancy era. While it accounted for some of the highest rates of violent crime in the country during and before the age or terrorism, the rate of violent crime in Punjab in 2010, according to the National Crime Records Bureau, stood at 14.8 per 1,00,000 population, against a national average of 20.4, and rates well into the thirties in Manipur, Jammu & Kashmir, Assam, and even Kerala and Delhi.
Crime, nevertheless, continues to play a significant role in Punjab politics; the Association for Democratic Reform notes that, “61 candidates out of the 408 candidates analysed” had “self-declared pending criminal cases against them”, among those contesting the Assembly Election. Eighteen of 77 ‘re-contesting MLAs’ have pending criminal cases. The real core of crime in Punjab, today, is white collar financial crime and corruption, offences that fail to show up accurately in available crime indices, though daily news reports and anecdotal evidence are overwhelming.
There have been repeated reports of Pakistan-based Khalistani terrorist groupings — most prominently including the Babbar Khalsa International, the Khalistan Zindabad Force and the Khalistan Tiger Force — seeking to revive their base and activities in Punjab over the past years. Union Minister for Home Affairs P Chidambaram confirmed a “very strong continuing flow of information” of this threat in his statement of December 20, 2011, when the Centre announced its decision “to increase the level of alertness in States bordering Pakistan, and that includes Punjab.” Intelligence reports indicate that Khalistani terrorist groups have decided to target various sectarian and religious leaders, as well as prominent politicians, during the electoral process, and two Babbar Khalsa International cadre were picked up in this connection on December 24, 2011.
The Centre and local authorities have also recognised the possible role of black money, drugs and alcohol in distorting the electoral process, and a concerted campaign has been launched to target these in the run-up to the election. Between the announcement of the election schedule on December 24, 2011, and January 16, 2012, unaccounted cash totalling Rs 23.7 crore and at least 6.34 kg of heroin had been seized. In addition, by January 11, 2012, a whopping 36,000 litres of foreign liquor, 82,782 bottles of country liquor, 2,101 kg of poppy husk, 8.6 kg of opium, and significant quantities of other drugs, were seized across Punjab.
The authorities have also taken a number of measures to ensure that Punjab election will tend to be, by and large, free of violence, though 12 cases of campaign-related violence had already been recorded by January 16, 2012. Over 1.83 lakh licensed weapons, out of roughly three lakh such weapons in the State, have already been deposited with authorities, even as officials launch a campaign against illegal possession.
Macro-economic indicators in Punjab remain healthy, though far from optimal. Punjab had dropped to sixth position among States and Union Territories on per capita State Domestic Product by 2010-2011, pushed down from the top position it had held for decades. The State still boasts the lowest proportion of the population below the poverty line; but there is a full blown crisis in its agricultural sector, and unemployment is endemic among youth in both rural and urban areas, and a ravaging epidemic of drug abuse.
Punjab has, moreover, never voted back an incumbent party since the trifurcation of the State in 1966, bad news from the SAD-Badal-BJP perspective. The general election of 2009 also produced discouraging results for the ruling combine.
Nevertheless, the Congress appears to be doing much to upset this record, with its disgraceful performance on corruption at the Centre, and an incoherent campaign in the State. The people of Punjab appear to be trapped between a rock and a hard place.
The writer is Executive Director of Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.
