In an attempt to lure voters, political parties in Uttar Pradesh have showered election sops on them: Promising homes to weaker sections of the society, waiver of farm loans, free education for Muslim girls, free electricity and water to irrigate fields, and even a cow to each family living below the poverty line. It is not all. This time, two main political parties — the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party — have promised laptops and tablets PCs for students who clear the Class X and Class XII examinations. But the State’s financial health does not allow such extravagance. The coffer is empty, but the parties are hardly bothered by this minor detail.
If the budget of year 2011-12, presented by the State’s Minister for Finance Lalji Verma is taken as a yardstick, Uttar Pradesh has a fiscal deficit of Rs18,959.04 crore, which is almost three per cent of the State’s Gross Domestic Product. The debt of the State stands at around two lakh crore rupees. Revenue receipts are not enough to meet the revenue expenditure and often borrowing has to be resorted to for paying regular salaries and meeting other committed expenditures. In this scenario, it is to be seen how the political parties can keep their Utopian promises.
The Uttar Pradesh Secondary Education Board is the biggest board in India. It conducts the high school examination for 36.82 lakh students, while 26.36 lakh students would write their intermediate or class XII papers this year. If last year's pass percentage is taken as an indicator, then 70 per cent students are expected to pass out from high school. This number is likely to be around 25 lakh. Similarly, with 80 per cent pass percentage, around 21 lakh students are expected to pass class XII this year.
The cheapest tablet PC recommended by the Union Ministry of Human Resource Development Minister costs Rs2,500. At this rate, the State Government would need to meet an annual expenditure of Rs625 crore to keep the election promise to give the tablets to high school pass-outs. Similarly, assuming that a laptop costs at the very least Rs15,000, the State Government needs Rs3,150 crore to provide free laptops to 21 lakh intermediate pass students. So, the Government will have to shell Rs3,775 crore per year to distribute laptops and tablet computers among the classes X and XII-pass students.
The budget for secondary education in this fiscal is Rs6,846 crore, with 60 per cent of it (around Rs4,107 crore) going into meeting the salary of the employees and the teachers. The money left is Rs2,739 crore. This money is used in the construction of school buildings or developing other paraphernalia. How then would any Government manage the funds for the sops that are being promised?
When Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav was asked as to how his Government would manage funds to fulfill his party’s election promises, he replied: “The same way in which Chief Minister Mayawati has managed money for the construction of parks and statues. We have plans chalked out to raise the money.”
The comparison is meaningless. The Mayawati Government had indeed spent Rs3,000 crore for the construction of parks and memorials for Dalit icons, but this was a one-time expenditure. In the 2011-12 budget, the Government had earmarked Rs122 crore for maintenance of these parks. But the SP’s election promise would entail an expenditure of over Rs3,000 crore every year.
The promises do not end here. The SP has assured to waive farmers’ debts up to Rs50,000 while the BJP would waive loans up to one lakh rupees on every farmer. It also promises loan to farmers at one per cent interest. The BJP has also promised free electricity to small and marginal farmers, the SP has promised free water for irrigation from Government tube wells.
Loan waivers to farmers may require several thousand crores of rupees; the cost is yet to be calculated fully. The cost of free electricity would mean an expenditure of over Rs20,000 crore. The distribution of one cow each, as promised by the BJP in its manifesto, to one crore BPL families in the State would tax the State's exchequer by almost Rs10,000 crore. Thus, a rough estimate suggests that the freebies being promised by the SP and the BJP could put an extra burden of Rs50,000 crore on the State’s finances.
Director, Giri Institute of Development Studies, Lucknow, Ajit Kumar Singh said that promises of various concessions and benefits by parties raise important political and ethical questions. It is nothing short of political bribery, he maintained.
Mohd Muzammil, professor, Department of Economics, Lucknow University, summed up by saying that the fiscal role of the Government has not been outlined in any manifesto. It lends support to the view that whichever party comes to power will look towards the Union Government for improving its fiscal health. Naturally, the State’s autonomy would be compromised in the process.
