A fortnight can be a long time in politics, whether in India or in the United States. Nothing illustrates this maxim better than the current state of play in America’s Grand Old Party, as the Republican Party is widely known. As the presidential race begins to hot up, the party’s undisputed front-runner till two weeks ago (Mitt Romney) is now trailing pitifully, while the main challenger of that time (Newt Gingrich) is way down in the political sweepstakes. And Rick Santorum (“Santorum who?” till not long ago) is the one who is now calling the shots, energising the party’s hardcore conservative base as no one else has. But the strong social conservative that he is, Mr Santorum faces the electability question a lot more than Mr Romney because of acute doubts about his appeal beyond the Republican confines.
The lull of recent days is all set to give way to a political storm over the next fortnight as the four Republican hopefuls brace for the March 6 ‘Super Tuesday’ when as many as 11 States will decide their fortunes in a single day. Days before that mega battle, there will be some riveting skirmishes in Michigan, Arizona and the West Coast State of Washington. Together, the contests in the 14 States may provide one a clue as to where the Republicans are heading with their raucous campaign to choose their nominee to take on President Barack Obama in November. But the pundits believe it may be a much longer road. Some even point to the grim possibility of a “brokered convention” as none of the four candidates may muster the magic number of 1,144 delegates to seal the nomination. In which case, all eyes will be on the Republican convention in Tampa, Florida towards the end of August. In 2008, the close Obama-Hillary Clinton contest appeared headed for a “brokered convention”, but it was averted with Mrs Clinton finally conceding in early June that year.
Although the Republican aspirants have been fretting and fuming for months, it’s still somewhat early days in terms of the delegates’ count. Only 248 delegates have been decided out of a total pool of 2,286, who will be voting at the party convention. Mr Romney, according to the Associated Press count, is leading the pack with 123 delegates, followed by Mr Santorum with 72, Mr Gingrich with 32 and Congressman Ron Paul with 19. Even after Super Tuesday, only a total of 800-odd delegates would have been decided, which points to the long road ahead, save for a situation when all but the clear front-runner decide to pack up. That seems unlikely at this point. The contest currently may essentially be between Mr Romney and Mr Santorum, but Mr Gingrich and Mr Paul are also planning to carry the fight all the way up to the convention.
Should the Republican Party be thrown into a ‘brokered convention’, it would be the first of its kind since 1952. That year, a reluctant Adlai Stevenson emerged as the nominee from a brokered Democratic convention. In the event of a brokered convention this time, the Republican delegates could jettison the current crop of candidates and turn to others reckoned to have a better chance of defeating President Obama. Former Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin caused raised eyebrows on Fox network recently, commenting that a brokered Republican convention was a possibility and that, in such an event, she “would do whatever I could to help”. Analysts were quick to conclude that Ms Palin, after choosing not to run, was now trying to position herself for a rebound if an opportunity arose.
“The vision of a brokered convention is edging from overheated political-junkie fantasy to dim possibility, with the odds up to 26 per cent on the Internet gambling site Intrade,” political commentator John Avlon wrote in The Daily Beast. He reckons that the chaos of the Republican calendar has set the stage for a bloody primary battle. Alongside, a Texas court has tentatively pushed back the State’s primary by nearly two months because of redistricting delays — from April 3 to May 29. This will only complicate a candidate’s chances of securing the requisite 1,144 delegates till about June. Texas is the country’s second largest State, with 155 delegates, next only to California’s 172 delegates. The California primary, too, happens to be as late as on June 5, along with four other States.
The fluid situation confronting the Republican Party is largely attributed to Mr Romney’s failure to sufficiently rally the party’s conservative base because of his shifting positions on sensitive issues like abortion and health care reform. This has enabled Mr Santorum to position himself as the leading conservative and stun Mr Romney with his astounding hat-trick win in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri on February 7. He has also overtaken Mr Gingrich, who had earlier counselled Mr Santorum to quit in his favour, touting their shared desire to consolidate the conservative vote and keep Mr Romney out. The former Pennsylvania Senator is now offering Mr Gingrich the same advice in good measure.
The Santorum surge continues for now. As of this past weekend, he led Mr Romney in all the five major national polls — Gallup, CNN/Opinion Research, CBS News/New York Times, Pew Research and Rasmussen Reports. The RealClearPolitics average of the various polls showed Mr Santorum leading with 34.3 per cent against Mr Romney’s 27.7 per cent, Mr Gingrich’s 14.5 per cent and Mr Paul’s 12.3 per cent. As will be obvious to anyone following the Republican primaries, these figures tend to change dramatically all the time. And that is the crux of the Republican problem, fuelling the thoughts of a marathon race and even a brokered convention.
The next test for Mr Romney is Michigan on February 28. It’s where he was born and where his father was the Governor in the 1960s, so Michigan is deemed to be a “must win” for him. Raising the stakes for him, a prominent Republican Senator told ABC News: “If Mr Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate.” The Sunday talk shows promptly latched onto the cue and plunged headlong into the guessing game.
Who could be among the picks in the event of a brokered convention? Names tossed around included New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and Mr Jeb Bush, the former Florida Governor and brother of former President George W Bush. A Romney loss in Michigan next week is sure to add grist to the speculation mill.
