Speculation rife in Delhi Durbar: Is Regent on his way out? Is Palace preparing to install Prince?

As the silly season approaches, between now and the Winter Session of Parliament, our ‘national’ media for whom India is confined to the municipal boundaries of New Delhi is busy spinning stories out of nothing more than a casual (but deliberate) comment — “Rahul Gandhi is going to be a new leader” — to keep the 24-hour news cycle moving. This is also the season when political parties and their leaders are known to float trial balloons, as Mr Pranab Mukherjee no doubt did, which, in the absence of any substantive information of public interest, become a substitute for ‘breaking news’.

So it doesn’t come as a surprise that the media commentariat should have begun speculating on possible changes at the top echelons of Government. Four questions are being rhetorically posed, and then answers are being posited — partly to titillate popular imagination and largely to fill up space in newspapers and kill time on news television. Is Mr Manmohan Singh on his way out from the Prime Minister’s Office? Is Mr Rahul Gandhi preparing to take charge as Prime Minister? Is an all-new UPA team on the cards? And, how ill is Ms Sonia Gandhi?

Actually, the first three questions are directly linked to the state of the health of the Congress president and chairperson of the UPA. In her second public appearance after she returned from what was described as an “undisclosed foreign destination following treatment for an unknown illness” Ms Gandhi looked a bit gaunt and pale, but appearances, like the cover of a book, can be deceptive. The vibrant colours of boisterous Dussehra celebrations at Ramlila Maidan may have provided too sharp a contrast.

Since there is no official word on Ms Gandhi’s health and because it is in bad form for media to snoop around and intrude into her privacy, we will never quite know whether she is ill, and if she is, how ill is she. That detail would have been of interest for more reasons than one, not the least because Ms Gandhi heads the party which leads the coalition that rules India. More importantly, she is also the de facto policy-initiator: The Government takes its cue from the National Advisory Council, which Ms Gandhi heads. The NAC comprises hand-picked self-righteous and sanctimonious men and women who can be held neither accountable nor responsible by the people of India; their loyalty is to the Palace and not the street.

No less important is the Government’s dependence on Ms Gandhi to set things right every time they threaten to go wrong. We have been told, by more than one fawning courtier, including those who masquerade as editors and tailor the content of their newspapers and news programmes to suit the desires of the Palace, that had Ms Gandhi been around and not at an “undisclosed foreign destination”, Ramlila Maidan would not have witnessed the Woodstockian gathering to cheer Anna Hazare’s crusade against corruption. A babu’s note on the Great 2G Spectrum Robbery would not have led to a very public, very un-edifying spat between two senior Ministers, nor would the UPA have come to be seen as a regime in free fall. Now that she’s back, as Mr Salman Khurshid has informed us, all is well.

But is it really so? It is indisputable that Mr Manmohan Singh is now the weakest link in the UPA, a political liability for both the Congress and its allies. He was anointed Prime Minister by Ms Gandhi in the summer of 2004 not because of his political acumen or his experience in governance, first as a babu and then as a Minister in PV Narasimha Rao’s Government. He was chosen to stand in as the Regent till the Prince came of political age for primarily two reasons.

First, notwithstanding the fact that the biggest stock market scam in this country took place under his watch as Finance Minister, he had the reputation of a person with an unsullied image. Mr Singh’s high integrity quotient was his, as well as his party’s, asset. Second, as an ‘accidental’ politician, he was seen as someone without over-vaulting ambition. Hence, he could be trusted with the throne of Delhi without any fear of his refusing to give it up when asked by the Palace to vacate it for the Prince. So it seemed till recently.

The best laid schemes of mice and men oft go awry. Nobody could have imagined that Mr Singh’s carefully cultivated image of an incorruptible person of impeccable integrity would lie in tatters one day, as it does today. True, there is nothing to suggest, ever so remotely, that Mr Singh is in any manner a beneficiary of the loot-and-scoot regime he presides over. But as Mr Jaswant Singh once famously said, “Corruption is not only of the body, it is also of the mind.” Integrity is not only about whether or not a person has partaken of the forbidden fruit, it is also about upholding certain moral standards of rectitude.

Mr Singh allowed corruption to flourish under his watch as Prime Minister; worse, he believed he could cover up his failing by pleading ignorance. His whining explanation, “I was not aware”, for every act of omission and commission that has given the UPA dispensation the dubious distinction of being the most corrupt Government India has ever seen, generates pitiless ridicule and not maudlin sympathy. Mr Singh may be blind to this reality, but the Palace is far more astute and alert. Imperious disdain for the unwashed masses is as much a fact as the Palace’s ability to sense the mood of the nation.

Mrs Indira Gandhi learned a harsh lesson from the mistake she committed in 1977; Ms Sonia Gandhi learned from her mother-in-law’s folly. She, more than anybody else, would know that popular outrage has reached the point where it could boil over and drown the Congress. Hence, contrary to expectations in certain quarters, she would never agree to a mid-term poll at this point of time. That’s presuming she is still as feisty as she was. In any event, such political adventurism is not in the Congress’s tradition. Which means, she would have to rework her sums within the given matrix to regain the traction which the Government has clearly lost.

Yet, politics is not always about politicians doing the obvious. It may make eminent sense for the Palace to cut its losses and replace the Regent with the Prince. But the proverbial ifs and buts of life come into play when action appears to be imminent. Mr Singh may have become a liability, the UPA may be unravelling (though not at a perceptible speed) and there may be unrest within the Congress. All of this, however, does not necessarily determine that the time is right for a change of guard. In politics, to every question there is a counter-question. Is the Regent on his way out? That question would fetch the counter-question: Is the Prince prepared to step in?

And, if the Prince is prepared to step in, a second counter-question would follow: Is this the opportune moment for him to ascend the throne of Delhi? Which, in turn, would beget the question: Or, should he wait till the Hindi heartland has voted and exercised its choice in next year’s Assembly election? Which would bring us to yet another question: What if the Congress fails to put up a spectacular performance? If the Prince were to take charge now, he would then look silly. If he were to wait till then, he would look unfit. It’s a Catch-22 moment for the Palace.

Meanwhile, in the absence of any plausible answers to these questions, we could speculate on next year’s presidential election.

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