Will Israel bomb Iran’s nuclear reactors?

Etzion Airbase, Israel, June 7, 1981. Eight F-16As, each armed with two 2,000-pound delay-action bombs, followed by six F-15As, taxi to the runway. At the stroke of 3.55 pm, the first F-16A takes off, swiftly followed by the remaining aircraft. Within seconds, they disappear from the sky above Israel.

Operation Babylon, with its zealously guarded code word ‘Opera’, had begun. This was by far the most daring, most ambitious military operation launched by the Israeli Defence Forces. Entebbe would look like a teddy bears’ party in comparison. The planes would fly more than 1,600 km, sneaking into and crossing first Jordanian and then Saudi Arabian airspace, detected but unchallenged. They would bomb their target. And fly back using the same route.

The Israeli pilots told Jordanian air controllers they were a Saudi patrol which had strayed off course. To convince the Jordanians, they spoke in Saudi-accented Arabic. When they entered Saudi airspace, they told the air controllers that they were Jordanians, speaking in Jordanian-accented Arabic. The Israelis used Jordanian and Saudi radio signals with remarkable ease.

But this story is not about the prowess of Israel’s magnificent flying men — that country has some of the best fighter pilots in the world — but their target on that summer day: Osirak, the nuclear facility a short distance away from Baghdad which essentially comprised an Osiris class reactor sold to Iraq by France. The reactor was meant for ‘peaceful purposes’, or so Iraq and France claimed, but Israel believed it would be used for processing weapon-grade fuel. Strangely, or perhaps not, so did Iran. And neither wanted the reactor to go critical.

When the Israeli planes loomed over Osirak and bombed the reactor to rubble, the Iraqis didn’t know what had struck them. Before they could realise the extent of the loss inflicted upon them, the Israelis were on their way out of Iraqi airspace. Operation Babylon was an unqualified success — nobody had quite seen such a surgical strike till then. A jubilant Israel bravely weathered the opprobrium that followed.

Operation Babylon, also known as Operation Opera, is known to many — at least its mention rings a bell among those who grew up in the closing decades of the last century. But what is often forgotten is that the Israelis were not the first to bomb Osirak with the purpose of destroying the reactor and, along with it, Iraq’s nascent nuclear ambitions. Before Israel, it was Iran which had attempted a similar strike-and-destroy surgical raid.

On September 30, 1980, Iranian F4 Phantoms bombed Osirak, but the damage inflicted to the facility was minimal. French technicians worked over time to repair the reactor and soon Osirak was back in business. In a strange way, Tehran and Tel Aviv were united in purpose. It is alleged, although there is no evidence to prove it, that Iran was aware of Operation Babylon and had even offered refuelling facilities to Israel.

Times change, situations change. Cut to November 2011 and you see Israel once again worrying about the nuclear programme of another country in the region. This time it is Iran. But unlike Iraq’s fledgling one-reactor project, Iran’s is a mammoth exercise, far more advanced and aided by more than ‘moral and political support’ from those who do not wish to see Tehran’s ambition being cut short.

Before the release of the damning November 8 report by the IAEA which makes Iran’s intentions abundantly clear and the November 18 vote at Vienna rebuking Tehran for its insolent defiance, there was much chatter about an impending Israeli airstrike a la Operation Babylon. Some reports said Israel was planning to raid Iran’s nuclear facilities on its own; others said it would be a joint US-Israeli operation. All the reports were based on briefings by unattributed sources.

Can Israel repeat its daring feat? As Brigadier-General Shalom Harari, who has worked with the intelligence wing of the IDF and is currently associated with the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at IDC, Herzliya, recently told me, Israel does have the capacity to conduct a similar surgical strike. I have heard elsewhere that elaborate plans exist on paper and several mock raids have been simulated somewhere in the Negev desert. That, however, must remain in the realm of speculation as nobody is going to either confirm or deny it.

Yet, Brig Gen Harari repeatedly pointed out, a surgical strike can “only be the last option”. Israel did not bother to scotch reports about an imminent or possible air strike preceding the release of the IAEA’s findings on November 8. On the contrary, Israeli authorities, who are particularly stringent about the publication of ‘sensitive’ security-related stories in the local media, were rather indulgent in allowing newspapers latitude. Hence, there were stories about hectic activities on the IDF front, movement of submarines and readying of airfields.

In retrospect, there was a tactical purpose to it – to let it be known that Israel would not sit and twiddle its thumbs if the world failed to take on Iran; while it favoured concerted international action, Israel was prepared to act unilaterally if necessary. The hectic Big Power diplomacy before Friday’s vote in Vienna which resulted in everybody recalibrating stated positions was in large measure the result of Israel toughening its stand without officially declaring that it was doing so. That Friday’s resolution has turned out to be a wimp’s cringing appeal is another story to be told another day.

But if push came to shove, if Tehran were to be on the verge of crossing the nuclear threshold, would Israel conduct a surgical strike to take out Iranian capability and capacity? In theory, that’s a possibility which cannot be ruled out, even if it is the last option to be exercised. A final call, however, would depend, as it did in 1981 when a call was taken on Operation Babylon, on the blowback that would follow.

In 1981, Iran was yet to emerge as a sworn enemy of Israel. Iraq was not exactly loved by other Arab countries. And Egypt was keen to push ahead with its historic peace accord with the Jewish state. Israel really had little to worry about in terms of retaliatory action barring meaningless rhetoric and sabre-rattling in the UN. Thirty years later, the blowback will be entirely different. It will emanate from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt and Jordan in the immediate neighbourhood; Iran will hit back with fury, both directly and through its proxies.

History, however, is replete with stories of risk-takers wading into battle and emerging winners. Israel, as we all know, is not* averse to taking calculated risks.

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