Can MBS weather Khashoggi storm?

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Can MBS weather Khashoggi storm?

Sunday, 28 October 2018 | Swarn Kumar Anand

Can MBS weather Khashoggi storm?

Despite Turkey’s tough posturing and the strategic exposure of murky details of Khashoggi’s murder and conspiracy, it is unlikely to affect Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman’s future prospects as global powers, particularly the US, find many constraints to act on allegations

Journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Turkey on October 2 is a watershed moment for the kingdom — particularly Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) —and the West Asian order as the ghastly act has sent ripples across the world and escalated tension between friends-turned-foes Riyadh and Ankara. The gory act has given all the ammunition Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needed to settle a score with the kingdom, which under the de facto ruler, MBS, has deftly manoeuvred the regional cooperation and American support away from Turkey towards itself.

Saudi authorities must not have imagined that the usual macabre experiment on rebels, albeit in a foreign country, could go so horribly wrong that it can jeopardise the prospects for the kingdom and the Crown Prince. And therefore, despite earlier abortive bids to feign ignorance about the killing, the Saudi Government had to gradually admit the Turkish account of the murder: From death in “fistfight”, to accidental strangulation, to outright admission of Khashoggi being hacked to death in the consulate.

Even as Erdogan is engaged in the global political brinkmanship over the Khashoggi affair to get leverage over Saudi Arabia and is basking in keeping up international pressure on the kingdom by periodically doling out leaks about the murder, Saudi Arabia has not accepted Erdogan’s claim of MBS’ involvement in the act. But the Turkish President has extracted the pound of flesh as Saudis are desperately trying to overcome the crisis.

To the uninitiated, Erdogan’s rage against the kingdom may seem to emanate from the fact that the murder happened in Turkey in a grotesque violation of diplomatic protocol thus exposing weak safety measures for foreigners in the country. But the embassy land is not the property of the host country, neither the law of the land is applied there. Turkey’s anger has deep roots; Khashoggi case is just a new addition to the long list of disputes with Saudis since Arab Spring.

Although Turkey’s relations with Saudi Arabia, as also with other Arab nations, improved for a decade when pro-Islamist AKP came to power in 2002 — marking the end of the era of secular Governments in Ankara — the two nations are at loggerheads over West Asian & North African (WANA) leadership rivalry and the American role in the region post Arab Spring. They have been leading the opposite sides in the region since then.

Arab Spring wedged rift between the two as the popular uprising in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya led to overthrow of dictators. In Egypt, the rise of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood became the bone of contention between Riyadh and Ankara. Saudis were wary of Muslim Brotherhood’s influence on the kingdom and considered it a threat to their hereditary rule, and thus started making efforts to stem its growth even at its birthplace. During these distressed time, the Egyptian military in tacit regional support, particularly from Saudi Arabia, ousted the Muslim Brotherhood Government, much to the chagrin of Turkey. While Saudis declared Brotherhood members as terrorists and repressed rebels, Turkey provided safe havens to Brotherhood members on its soil.

The 2017 Qatar blockade that pitted Ankara against Riyadh too had genesis in the onslaught on the Muslim Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia, which tried to punish the tiny Gulf state for using its news channel Al Jazeera to champion the cause of Brotherhood and political Islam. Turkey helped the forex-reserves-rich nation weather the blockade by entering into new trade relations and supplied it with food during distress and increased military presence there as a safeguard against any threat by Saudis.

Similarly, MBS and Erdogan were at daggers drawn on Saudi-UAE’s military intervention in Yemen that plunged the country into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. MBS’ futile endeavour to force the summoned Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad Hariri to quit the post and parrot the assertion “Iran’s hand will be cut” went in vain as the French President forced the Crown Prince’s hand. However, the Saudi decision on the Jerusalem resolution gave Turkey an opportunity to damage the Saudis’ self-proclaimed leadership of the Muslim world. But Erdogan’s bid to capitalise on the issue by saying “Jerusalem is a red line for Muslims” has not been very fruitful as Turkey has never been considered part of Arab, nor has it led the Muslim world ever.

The problem with Turkey is that it had been a close US partner till the US policy reversal on the WANA under the Donald Trump Administration. Ankara finds itself on the other side of the fence, straying closer to Russia and Iran. However, Turkey is in the midst of economic storm and has a few rich friends to rely on. Moreover, relations with Russia are issue specific, at present Iran and Syria, while those with the Europe are very complicated. Therefore, at this juncture, when its currency is nose-diving, Turkey would like a thaw in the relations with the US.

Seen in the perspective, there is speculation that Turkey will ultimately lend a helping hand to Saudis over the Khashoggi affair. Ankara’s refusal to hand over audio evidence of murder conspiracy was a stark example in that direction, but Turkey scotched the speculation on Friday and again exerted pressure on Saudi Arabia to extradite 15 Saudi conspirators to face trial for the murder of Khashoggi under Turkish laws. A natural response came on October 27; Saudis rejected Turkish demand and declared that the accused will be tried under the law of the kingdom. 

Despite all public display of excessive moral behaviour, none can predict what kind of behind-the-scenes dialogue is going on among Saudis, Turkey and the US to calm the frayed nerves. 

US President Donald Trump’s economic and strategic constraints have come as a blessing in disguise. Soon after Trump came to power, Saudis tripled its spending on lobbying in the US to $27 million to leave no stone unturned to be in POTUS’ good books. MBS upstaged other regional leaders to cultivate economic relations with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who happened to be the President’s adviser. And this friendship will yield the US about $100 bn in the proposed arms sale to the kingdom. Therefore, when pressed to take punitive action against Saudis after allegation of conspiracy to murder Khashoggi at the highest level in the kingdom, Trump claimed that it can’t take any measures that has potential to hit the economic interest of the US as it also believes the Saudi King and MBS were unaware of rogue killers. It is different matter altogether that the many investors were conspicuously absent from the glittering investors’ summit in Riyadh that began on October 23. Another compulsion the US is set to encounter is dependence on Saudi Arabia when the US sanction on Iran comes into effect on November 5.

Trump’s concerns for Israel and improving Saudi-Israel relations, besides the kingdom’s support to US efforts to eliminate ISIS, have also emboldened MBS. Saudi Arabia, under the stewardship of MBS, and Israel are natural allies against Iran’s soaring status in the region geopolitics.

However, it is not that only the US needs Saudis, rather the latter needs American support more for economic and strategic reasons. Although Saudis are still a powerful player in the global oil market, they don’t wield same power over petroleum supply and prices as they did during oil embargo in 1973.

Despite petro dollar, the kingdom economy is not robust considering that it ran a budget deficit for three consecutive years. It needs to diversify economy to generate jobs for an estimated 45 adolescents who will join labour market in this decade. Oil sector can’t absorb so many hands. Therefore, the kingdom needs the West, particularly the US, to help it diversify economy, including step-by-step privatistion of the state-owned oil sector.

Considering all these limitations, the kingdom and MBS have struck the right note by declaring to delivering justice in the Khashoggi murder case.

In this planned move, MBS, who had described Turkey as part of a “triangle of evil” along with Iran, has rained praise on Ankara. His speech during the investors’ summit in Riyadh has already calmed Turkey anger. MBS said, “The cooperation between the Saudi and Turkish Governments is unique and we know that many are trying to use this painful thing to drive a wedge between Saudi Arabia and Turkey… I want to send them a message: They will not be able to do that as long as there is a king called King Salman bin Abdelaziz and a Crown Prince called Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia and a President in Turkey called Erdogan.”

MBS’ masterstroke is in his successfully selling the dream of his pet project “Vision 2030”. World around he has been hailed as extraordinary social and economic reformer in a conservation kingdom. This has raised his stature within and outside Saudi Arabia. Despite failures like Qatar Blockade, Saad Hariri’s forced resignation, Yemen military intervention, the Khashoggi crisis will fizzle out as the West has encountered many compulsions preventing punitive action on Turnkey’s allegation, and more so because MBS has been able to project himself as Saudis’ future and has earned their support.

(The writer is Associate Editor, The Pioneer)

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