There’s a lot of clamour among the Opposition to take on the BJP but they must glue together. Fragmented, they cannot challenge its might

In one of his rare interviews last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi  ridiculed the idea of any grand alliance of opposition parties to challenge him in the 2019 lok Sabha polls. He called it a political adventurism. He said, “It is a failed idea that has never succeeded. History tells us that such adventurism failed in 1979, 1990 and 1996. People want a strong and decisive Government.” 

The Prime Minister may have a point. Given the inherent contradictions in Opposition ranks, a lot of give-and-take is needed to formulate a grand alliance. Some Congress leaders are talking about a post-poll alliance at the national level and pre-poll alliances at the State level. Taking pot shots at them, Modi pointed out, “Today, those who resisted the Emergency are standing with those who imposed it. Those who went about trying to fight corruption are with the party that has institutionalised corruption at all levels. Parties with a visceral hatred towards the left ideology and parties espousing left ideology are sharing stage. Parties whose very existence depended on fighting each other are now friends.” True, but the counter-point is that changing political equations makes the adage true that there are no permanent friends or foes in politics. The Opposition is desperate to check the growth of the BJP.  

Second fear is that if Prime Minister Modi gets another term, the Opposition may be completely wiped out. Third fear is that they might as well lose political relevance if they remain out of power for another five years. However, it is this fear for survival that can unite them to a large extent.  What formula does the Opposition have to challenge the BJPij They expect that the BJP might lose at least 100 seats from its tally of 282 it won in 2014 lok Sabha polls. This was possible because the BJP bagged all seats in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Goa, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, besides getting 71 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. In Bihar, the BJP and its allies got 31 of the 40 seats, Chhattisgarh 10 out of 11, Jharkhand 12 out of 14, Madhya Pradesh 28 out of 29, Maharashtra with the Shiv Sena 41 out of 48.

It may, however, be difficult for the BJP to repeat this stellar performance in 2019.  Therefore, the saffron party is now looking towards the North-East  (25) and the south (132) for expansion. If the BJP’s strategy is to retain its present tally and focus on 100 plus seats from elsewhere, the Opposition’s aim is to reduce the BJP’s strength by 100-plus seats. Regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee (West Bengal), Naveen Patnaik (Odisha), Chandrababu Naidu (Andhra Pradesh) and K Chandrashekara Rao (Telengana) are worried about the BJP’s expansion in their backyards.

The Opposition’s unity move kick-started when the Congress showed its political shrewdness by supporting a smaller party like the Janata Dal (Secular) to stop the BJP from forming a Government in Karnataka three months ago. The photograph taken at the swearing-in function of HD Kumaraswamy with a galaxy of top Opposition leaders raising their hands showed their might.

Together, they represented over 40 per cent of the votes secured in the 2014 polls. The broad aim of the Opposition is to go for a one-to-one fight in 400 of the 543 seats, leaving the rest for regional parties after they realised that the BJP gets an advantage by division of Opposition votes and multi-cornered contests. However, the defeat of the Congress candidate in the recent election of Deputy Chairman of Rajya Sabha shows that more needs to be done to get new allies.

While the BJP has a charismatic leader, unlimited resources, committed cadres and excellent communication skills, the Opposition is lacking in all of these. The outreach of regional parties like the Trinamool Congress, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Telugu Desam Party and Telangana Rashtra Samithi is limited to their respective States. Though a national party, the Congress lacks organisational strength and party funds are on the decline. left parties, too, are limited to Kerala and Bengal.

However, all is not lost for the Opposition if they come together leaving their egos. After all, the BJP won with just 31 per cent vote share. Despite the massive vote swings, regional parties won 212 seats — with the same vote share (46.6 per cent against 46.7 per cent in 2009). Even parties who suffered considerable loss of seats, such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, have maintained their vote share. The coming together of the SP and BSP in the recent Uttar Pradesh by-polls has proved that they would prove a formidable combination against the BJP.  The million  dollar question is whether the Opposition will be united before the 2019 pollsij Modi is banking on division in Opposition ranks. The Opposition has not yet reached that desperation point but there is enough time as polls are eight months away. The only glue that could bind them is power and if they smell power, they might all come together.

(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)