While Turkey has the financial and diplomatic depth, leverage and resilience to withstand financial bullying by the US, Pakistan is on a weaker wicket and without many bargaining options. It cannot risk a spat with Washington
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan waded into the muddy waters of the increasingly soiled US-Turkey relationship even before he formally took over as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Having led the most brazenly anti-US campaign amongst all other mainstream political parties in the recently held campaign, Imran Khan let his position on the ensuing US-Turkey spat be known unequivocally when he tweeted: “On behalf of the people of Pakistan & myself, I want to let President Erdogan & the people of Turkey know we are praying for their success in dealing with the severe economic challenges confronting them, as they have always succeeded against adversities in their glorious history.”
Following as it did on the heels of the loaded aspersions that Imran Khan had made against the US in his maiden victory speech, “With the US, we want to have a mutually beneficial relationship ... up until now, that has been one way….”, the import of openly siding with Turkey in the midst of its bitter diplomatic war against the US will not go unnoticed by Washington, DC.
Historically, Pakistan has emerged as a ‘fraternal’ nation in the Turkish psyche after singularly appropriating the portents of the sub-continental Khilafat movement, earning the Pakistanis a special place in the Turkish imagination for its symbolic support to Turkey. The existing framework of relationship was upgraded from ‘High level Cooperation Council’ to ‘High level Strategic Cooperation Council’ in 2017, and accordingly, over 60 agreements across various fields were signed.
In many ways, both Turkey and Pakistan have mirrored their sovereign evolution and sensibilities — both were borne of the ‘secular’ preferences of Kemal Ataturk and Muhammad Ali Jinnah respectively; both had fractured democracies with the military stepping in frequently; and today, both nations are caught up in the throes of ‘political Islam’ as the leitmotif of the ruling regimes. Turkey was also a rare nation that has supported Pakistan, militarily and diplomatically during the Indo-Pak wars of 1965 and 1971. Even the taint of genocidal purges of the Armenians and the Bangladeshis bonds their instincts of sovereign similarities. Therefore, across all international forums, like the United Nations and Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC), Turkey has offered a ready hand to the usually isolated Pakistanis.
Turkey had played the spoilsport in India’s bid to enter the 48-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) by positing and insisting on Pakistan’s parallel entry. In February this year, Turkey was the only country that had voted against the US motion to put Pakistan on the ‘Grey list’ of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) plenary meeting.
US President Donald Trump seems to view both Pakistan and Turkey in similar light, even though both were staunch US ‘allies’ till sometime back. With reference to Pakistan, Trump had famously said, “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools”, whereas an eerily familiar sentiment was echoed for Turkey when Trump said, “Turkey has taken advantage of the United States for many years” and that, “they have not proven to be a good friend.”
Interestingly, both Pakistan and Turkey host sizeable US assets, geo-strategic interests and nuclear weaponry. While Pakistan is believed to have 140-150 nuclear warheads as per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (compared to 130-140 for India), Turkey has a US-controlled stockpile of some 50 B-61 hydrogen bombs at its Incirlik Air Base in southeastern region.
With both Pakistan and Turkey overlooking substantial US military commitments in the neighbouring war-torn zones of Afghanistan and the Middle Eastern theatre respectively, the ratcheting of tensions and possibilities of ‘economic arm-twisting’ of both Pakistan and Turkey make them susceptible to the same tensions and empathy for each other. Even on the duplicitousness on terror, both countries share a pattern. Turkey was blamed for allowing thousands of foreign fighters to join the IS through the jihadi highway on Turkish soil, giving free medical treatment to IS fighters in Turkish border towns, faced accusations of purchasing oil from the IS using front companies and routinely targeting Kurds involved in the anti-IS operations. The patented Pakistani ‘dual approach’ on terror by militarily targeting the Pakistan-facing groups, whilst simultaneously partronising and supporting the Indian-facing and Afghanistan-facing groups is very similar.
Increasing political-religiousity within both regimes in Islamabad and Ankara affords them the convenient ability to spin the deteriorating narrative towards ostensible ‘Islamophobia’, which would resound within their domestic constituents. As individual personalities too, neither Imran Khan nor Recep Erdogan are pushovers and both predicate their personal appeal on invoking ‘nationalistic pride’, exhibit streak of defiance and religious assertion, that would naturally militate against Trump’s own irascible instincts.
While Turkey has both financial and diplomatic depth, leverage and resilience to withstand the immediate financial-bullying by the United States, Pakistan is on a much weaker wicket and without too-many bargaining options.
Imran Khan upped the ante with his premature throwing of weight behind Turkey and the US immediately retaliated by warning the International Monetary Fund (IMF) against any leniency towards Pakistan. Imran Khan’s
emotional and cavalier support to Turkey belies the hard reality of Pakistan’s dubious distinction as the world record holder of IMF bailouts ie 21, and it is knocking on its door yet again.
Instead, Imran Khan could take a leaf out of Turkey’s own example of the implications that beset belligerent leadership and a growth strategy that relies on heavy external borrowing — the Turkish reaction of the crashing currency, lira (40 per cent down since the beginning of the year) has invaluable lessons for Pakistan with the imminent Chinese debt trap that could bleed, seize and throttle its economy.
Risking a spat with the US will further push Pakistan into the Chinese quagmire of no-return, unlike the Turks who have the cover of the European Union and the relatively more developed infrastructure to withstand the US whiplash. The first-signs emanating from the Imran Khan dispensation betray any lessons in prudence, diplomacy and rapprochement.
(The writer, a military veteran, is a former lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and Puducherry)
