Future of Yemen looks bleak. Houthis’ desire to expand their writ over the entire Yemen has no end. Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s involvement in the war for their vested interests has aggravated the situation. Meanwhile, innocent civilians, especially children and women, who are sandwiched between the warring groups in Yemen, are badly in the need of humanitarian assistance
As the quagmire in Yemen has entered its fourth year, nearly 22 million of people are in desperate need of humanitarian aid and healthcare. What complicates the war theatre in Yemen is the roles played by two Arab nations — the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The UAE formally entered the war in March 2015 as an integral part of the Saudi-led forces to repel the Houthis from Sana’a.
Ironically, the UAE has been offering advance training and finance to separatists in the southern part of Yemen who are directly under the control of the Southern Transitional Council (STC). STC’s leader Aidarus al-Zoubaidi controls these separatists who actually helped purging the Houthis, officially the followers of Ansar Allah movement, from Aden in late 2015. He was subsequently made the Governor of Aden by the Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi Government but soon he fell out of favour once it came to light that he receives patronage from the UAE to support the demands of the separatists. Human Rights Watch reports the Gulf nation has created a parallel government like structure and offered sustained financial support to the militias to divide Yemen. This has seriously impaired and weakened the Hadi Government.
Future of Yemen looks bleak at the moment. The Houthis’ desire to expand their writ over the entire Yemen has no end. The Saudi-led coalition forces are fighting two battles — one against the Houthi rebels and other against Iran. Meanwhile, innocent civilians, especially children and women, who are sandwiched between the two warring groups, are badly in need of humanitarian assistance. What seems really impossible is an immediate understanding among the fighting forces to halt the ongoing conflict so as to facilitate relief work. Hence, it would be an uphill task to achieve the stated objective of the Saudi-led forces —dethrone the Houthis from Sana’a. Also, today, the rebels are in full control of much of the North.
Instead of dissuading the Riyadh from the civil war in Yemen, Abu Dhabi too has plunged into this morass. This has made the war more dangerous and now the priorities of both the nations are different. Initially, the Saudi officials declared that their intervention in Yemen would be over within weeks. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also brought in a pool of friendly countries — Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Sudan — into the fray. In fact, all these nations jumped on the bandwagon not because all of them were genuinely interested in bringing back normalcy in Yemen, but only for the sake of standing behind their good old allies in West Asia. later, Doha left the coalition because of its differences with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. In the continuing war in Yemen, the UAE has already paid for a large number of Colombian mercenaries and used its Asmara airbase for operations. On the other hand, Riyadh brought thousands of paid Sudanese soldiers to the Yemeni battlefields. The US has not sent forces in the strife-torn country but has helped its Arab allies with intelligence, refueling and advanced munitions.
Today, the main fighting forces are led by the UAE and it has been successful in recovering some crucial ports in the South from the Houthis. Its forces comprise three important groups of Yemeni fighters.
The situation is getting worse as Houthis too are not willing to recognise the Hadi Government despite the fact that the coalition forces have succeeded in pushing them nearly 80 km north towards the rebel-held areas. It is a big leverage point for the Government as it is barely 12 km away from the crucial port of Hodeida, which is under the control of the Houthis.
Saudi has the single objective to capture this port as this will allow it to have full control over the entire coastal plain, leaving the rebels landlocked. If it happens, the current Government supported by external powers can exert more pressure on the Houthis to come to the negotiating table.
Foreign intervention is detrimental for both the Houthis and the Hadi-led rag-tag coalition of discreet forces. Beyond this, what is more worrying is that even the Saudi-led coalition, which is providing an advanced support to Hadi’s leadership, is seriously paralysed by acute divisions within. However, the UAE is strongly sympathetic to the southern separatists who are fighting for a separate State.
The relations between the STC and the Government came to a tipping point in January this year when the former demanded the removal of Prime Minister Ahmed Obeid bin Daghr.
The council accused him of massive mismanagement of funds and resources. In turn, what Daghr revealed is shocking. He claimed the separatists had staged a putsch against the Government and seized several official buildings in the port city of Aden. He said, “What is happening is very dangerous and affects the security, stability and unity of Yemen….This wrongdoing is no different than the crimes committed by the Houthis in Sana’a.”
Daghr’s opinion points to a new danger to the already tattered nation wherein war has taken a heavy toll on the civilians since 2015. Meanwhile sources say the STC has approved a new agenda of popular uprising against the Hadi Government. STC’s demand is fixated on the Hadi Government’s removal. This offers a grim signal. If the Government goes, a new chaos will emerge and most probably the coalition forces would start fighting among themselves.
The most significant portion in Yemen belongs to the South, fed by Salafist and separatist ideology; the second group comes from the North, who are primarily the followers of late President Ali Abdullah Saleh and finally the local Sunnis, who are popularly known as the “Tihama”. But the Emirati intervention in Yemen has raised pertinent questions about its real intentions. Is it really serious about restoring the legitimate Government of Yemen as per the UN Security Council Resolution of 2216 passed in 2015IJ In fact, the resolution emphasised on the country’s unity, independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. What international observers say is that policies adopted by the Abu Dhabi regime in Yemen is detrimental to its original commitment to re-establish law and order in the war-torn country. It is evident that the UAE, guided by a strategic agenda, has taken its war efforts in South Yemen, the Arabian Sea and the critical Bab el-Mandab zones at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. It is certainly on an expansionist mode so as to establish its strategic foothold over a large swathe of the Red Sea.
Against this backdrop, when Saudi Arabia launched the historic Operation Decisive Storm, later renamed as Operation Renewal of Hope, in March 2015, Riyadh found a golden opportunity in it to pursue its role as a regional power. From the very beginning, the UAE has been concentrating only in Southern and Eastern Yemen. As it is an old ally of the US, the UAE has received overwhelming support from Washington to play its role in Yemen.
On the other hand, as Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the new sign of power and authority in Saudi Arabia, who was drawn to the Yemeni civil war at the invitation of the latter’s Government, will not simply withdraw from there. He helped an array of tribal and military groups that initially worked with Islah, Yemen’s most significant Sunni Islamist Party, and it is also an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. At the same time, the establishment at Abu Dhabi loathes the Brotherhood, and in turn supports the Southern separatists. Though it was initially a Saudi-led campaign, today the UAE is the decisive force on the ground. This brings an open conflict between the two major powers in a neighbouring land.
Whatever happens, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia will not stop his mission unless he is able to push the Houthis to their Iranian backyard, even if millions suffer. It is hoped that a deal over the Hodeida port may lead to a fresh round of peace talks. But for now, winning the war is not the final goal for both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh; for them it’s the show of strength and maintaining their proxies in the forgotten battleground of Yemen for their strategic interests.
In this protracted battle, the badly sandwiched are the innocent civilians, mainly women, children and the sick, who need immediate attention. Who cares, it is the ‘Axis’ (Greek word for worthy) war, for revered Salman.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)
