Opposition unity has to go beyond optics and take everybody along if it wants voters to be serious

Whatever today’s election results might be, they are bound to have some psychological hold in the run-up to 2019. The BJP needs the heartland verdict, its core base, more than the Congress, which, post its dismal showing in 2014, will be happy to resurrect its credibility even if it wins  one or two states, never mind the infighting among its satraps. If the cliffhanger verdicts do hold true, then it would again roundly be attributed to the monolithic vigour and purposefulness of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his paratrooping ability in swinging undecided public minds in the last leg. But what is unpredictable is Opposition unity and will. Dominant regional parties could still stitch together a formidable anti-BJP front, lording over as they do in half of the total Lok Sabha seats. If they still see themselves as negotiating their personal terrain in terms of which way the tide goes, then the pre-winter session meeting, initiated by TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu this time, will just be another case of wasted optics. And at this juncture, the mahagatbandhan must stake its all and cannot continue to be iffy. Most Opposition Chief Ministers have attended the meet with UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi endorsing it beside Congress chief Rahul Gandhi. If the Opposition has to convert a ground swell of discontent into a semblance of a wave, then key players like BSP chief Mayawati, who is the most effective partner any party can have in terms of vote transference, and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav need to be assuaged immediately. Though both indicated that they would send their top aides, it is not enough considering they have proven with the bypoll results earlier this year that they can make things work on the ground in the most crucial electoral state. Both have avowedly maintained a distance from the Congress than be its B-team and the grand old party needs to make some ego adjustment here. For the unity platform won’t be taken seriously if they are not on it. Already, TRS chief K Chandrashekar Rao and BJD chief Naveen Patnaik, seated comfortably in their perches, are staying out from national ambitions, keeping doors open to the side that enhances their state-level interests. The BJP is already scenting chances in this drift and has reciprocally not lambasted either Patnaik or Rao.

The crucial factor is whether Congress will be secondary to the federal front or if the front will need Gandhi as sheet anchor. First, the Opposition needs to sew up a cohesive strategy for Parliament, showing strength on crucial bills,  forcing discussions on farmers’ issues and Rafale. Second, constituents must take care of overlapping catchment areas in their states and settle seat-sharing issues before the resultant tension dilutes their goal. In states where they are rivals, a ground level justification is difficult to work out but as the SP-BSP scenario has shown, there could be a need-based understanding and even post-poll arrangements. Third, 2019 is not 1977 where the Emergency-tainted Congress was easy to root out. Though his government has taken hits, Modi’s personal standing remains unaffected. He has managed to project himself as the doer who is hemmed in by circumstance, not intent. No leader in the Opposition camp has been able to project himself/herself as an egoless servitor of the nation as effectively. The federal front is a mosaic of leaders with conflicting temperaments, each of whom would be king than kingmaker. Already there are noises bring made about TMC chief Mamata Banerjee, who got the Opposition initiative going in the first place, and Chandrababu Naidu, who is helming the second round of grandstanding, if only to show that it is a democratic platform of equals. But the leadership and anchorage issue is something that the BJP is already beginning to play up. The federal front has to battle coalition era ghosts which almost led to policy paralysis in UPA times. So the combined Opposition must fight hard for numbers because past minority governments, like those of PV Narasimha Rao and AB Vajpayee,  have managed to pull full terms with success. And Modi knows that.