The recent protests in Iran — starting on December 28 in the city of Mashhad in which 20 people died — are heralding a disturbing signal for the current regime of Hassan Rouhani.
What has exactly caused more disturbances in the power corridors of Tehran is the nature of slogans that the demonstrators chanted throughout the protest, which spread far and wide and even to the heart of the Capital city of Tehran over days. “Death to the dictator”, “Death to Hezbollah” and “Death to the Islamic Republic” are a few slogans that reverberated in the air of the Islamic Republic. It has been observed that just to embarrass the reformist Presidency of Rouhani, the religious hardliners have launched this uprising, different from the 2009 Green Movement which challenged the dubious election of the President.
What could be the likely outcome of the sudden outbursts of public anger against the Rouhani regimeIJ Is there an external hand behind this upsurgeIJ let’s find out the pros and cons of this new resistance against the Government in Iran.
It seems Iran is convulsing once again. A preliminary account of the outrage shows that the dual evil of Rouhani’s neo-liberal economic policies and Iran’s authoritarianism are equally responsible for pushing the people to come on the road.
Though this time the numbers of demonstrators are lesser than the 2009 protests, interestingly, more than 90 per cent of protesters are under the age of 25.
The immediate symbol of discontent actually is backed from the members of Rouhani’s right wing conservative opponents who started the resistance in Mashhad against the economic policies of the President. There has been call for an immediate change of guard. Over days, pensioners, workers, teachers and students joined the series of anti-establishment protests.
According to the Islamic Revolution Devotees Society (a Conservative Party), Iran has witnessed about 1,700 protests since March 2016. And throughout 2017, hundreds of protest movements were launched by students, teachers and others. It has been reported by international media agencies that most of the labour protests took place because of unpaid salaries, Government’s resistance towards labour organisations and neoliberal policies.
This time what is striking is that the demonstrators are demanding the ouster of both the reformists and the ruling clerics and their armed protectors in the prestigious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
They want Rouhani to resign and call for fresh elections in the country. In fact, problems all started from the beginning of Rouhani’s election as a President in May last year. He promised an all inclusive, open and a new reformed Iran, but he appears to have failed to deliver.
Today, unemployment is very high in Iran. Corruption is fast turning out to be a menace in the public offices. Though he has talked about openness like never before in Iranian society, but he has failed to offer any space to women and Sunnis in his new Government.
The main problem is that Iranians have very high hopes from Rouhani and as he has not been able to fulfil his promises, many political analysts feel that it is these discontents that are fanning protests.
The Government on its part is leaving no stone unturned in handling various resistance movements. The Government apparatus is using heavy hands to deal with protests and at times also banning social media apps to stop anti-Government messages reaching to the masses.
Handling of labour unrest has been harsh with the Government machinery being accused of resorting to highest repressive measures combined with fast and arbitrary lay-offs. Also, to discredit the protesters, Iran’s supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on January 9 blamed both America and Britain.
It is important to point out that in the draft budget presented by the Rouhani Government last December, it allotted a huge fund for all the organisations being run by the Khamenei’s foundations, cutting subsidies for the poor.
In fact, Khamenei’s officials have claimed that they have all the evidences to show that the unrest has been managed from outside the country. But what has outlined the fear of both the Government and the religious establishment is that Khamenei himself wanted that the protesters’ grievances ‘must be dealt with and heard’, rightly acknowledging the homegrown problems. The fact of the matter is that decades of authoritarian rules have made the commoners frustrated.
With globalisation and post-globalisation running the risk of putting everything upside down, people will not take long to counter such regimes in the near future. Many Iran observers said two generations of Iranians have already suffered under strict Islamic Sharia system. Many among them look for a change and want to move ahead with time. Some protesters even questioned the country’s involvement in wars in Yemen, Syria, lebanon and Gaza.
What has brought more concerns to the establishment in Tehran is the kind of international hullabaloo created by countries, such as America and Britain. When President Donald Trump warned Tehran to ‘respect freedom of speech’, it meant much more than what it used to be a concern by any Western power. He tweeted, “Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime’s corruption and it’s squandering of the nation’s wealth to fund terrorism abroad. Iranian Govt. should respect their people’s rights, including right to express themselves. The world is watching! #IranProtests.”
He praised the protesters for ‘finally acting against the brutal and corrupt Iranian regime’. This has sparked a series of controversies as expected to be created by Trump the way he does on almost all occasions.
Back in June, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told the US Congress that America is working towards “support of those elements inside of Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of that Government”.
This all is bringing home an unlikely exchange of diplomatic comments from both sides of the two nations. But many in America and in Europe have maintained their silence by fearing that siding with the dissidents would neither help fighting the Iranian regime nor bring a real democratic Government in the country. That is why Barack Obama also maintained his silence when the protests broke out in Iran seven years ago in 2009.
Does Rouhani need to worry about this outburst of protestsIJ Certainly, not for now! But the unrest has largely tarnished his image of an all-comprehensive leader. His call for replacing the ageing Khamenei will have very few takers. Once again, the Revolutionary Guards have proved that they are the real backbone of stability of the regime.
The Guards have reminded the ordinary Iranians that the living standards were much better under the regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and now, it is fast falling for all under Rouhani. This shows the sharp contradiction that exists in the power struggle between Rouhani and the Guards.
Though such protests had been witnessed throughout the regime of Ahmadinejad, the climate for activism has taken to a new height by all anti-Government elements during Rouhani. Clearly, the volume of protesters is much lesser than what it used to be in 2009. But, the temporary unrest has spooked the current regime of Rouhani.
Ironically the protesters in 2009 were led by urban elite. But this time, they consist of members from almost all sections of society. For now, the regime is saying that the sedition is over. But in reality it has all begun.
After witnessing the toppling of four big authoritarian Arab regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, libya, Yemen and yet another struggling to survive in Syria, Rouhani and the ruling clerics must be extremely careful. They should not underestimate the power of the youth, moved much more by globalism and a yearning for rights and freedoms. The regime must remember that no tyrannical rule lasts forever.
They all need to adjust and accommodate the demand of the public in due course of time. All such regimes survive by reforming themselves over time. If history is our real guide, autocracies normally fall either because they collapse internally or through some sort of revolution. With the success of the Arab Spring, the conservative regimes in the entire region must address the larger issues raised by public. Else, no one will be able to save the regime in Iran.
(The writer is an expert on
international affairs)
