Ahead of the 2019 General Election, the road for the Congress to become the nucleus of Opposition unity is fraught with challenges

Now that the Narendra Modi Government has won the trust vote in the lok Sabha, what nextIJ The dramatic ‘hug’ and ‘wink’ of Congress president Rahul Gandhi while speaking during the ‘no trust’ motion in the lower House may have become news, but the real question is whether the Opposition is ready to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2019 and also as to who will lead the OppositionIJ Though the trust motion was aimed at attesting numbers for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), battle lines for the 2019 General Election were drawn after a heated debate. The next show of Opposition unity will come forth during the election of the Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha. But the BJP is not keen to hold the elections unless it mobilises numbers for its own candidate or a BJP-backed candidate. So, the election is likely to be postponed to the Winter Session of Parliament by which time polls to Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will be over. By and large there was Opposition unity in Parliament, but efforts to get parties like the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) on board did not succeed. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) (11) and the BJD (20) stayed away. NDA ally Shiv Sena (18) also stayed away. The Opposition had been banking on 129 votes, including that of smaller parties, and got 125 votes. Clearly, much more needs to be done to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The NDA too is faced with a daunting task to keep its flock together and get new friends. Though it gained the support of the Janata Dal (United) and some smaller north-eastern regional partners, the TDP walked out of the NDA in March this year and the Shiv Sena, its oldest ally, is practically out. Smaller parties like the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha, the Hindustani Awam Morcha and the Rashtriya lok Samta Party also quit the NDA. The BJP itself pulled out of its alliance with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Government in Jammu & Kashmir. Party managers expected to get about 350 votes, much beyond the NDA strength in the House (314), but got 25 votes less despite getting the 37 votes from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). The Congress, if it wants to project its president Rahul Gandhi as a challenger to Prime Minsiter Modi, much needs to be done to establish his supremacy in the Opposition. He has emerged much more confidant and the transition from Sonia to Rahul has been smooth. The first meeting of the Congress Working Committee chaired by Rahul on July 22, authorised him to go ahead as the prime ministerial candidate, form poll alliances and also draw a road-map for the 2019 election. Rahul realises the difficult task of expanding the Congress vote base. “In each constituency, we have to find people who have not voted for us and develop a strategy to reach out to them and win back their trust,” the Congress president told the Congress Working Committee. 

On forming alliances, Sonia Gandhi, who might play a bigger role in her capacity as the chairperson of the Congress, observed: “The need of the hour is the opposition unity and the Opposition has to get together in strategic alliances, keeping aside personal ambitions.” However, both tasks are difficult. Regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee (Trinamool Congress), Mayawati (Bahujan Samaj Party), Chandrababu Naidu (Telugu Desam Party) and Sharad Pawar (Nationalist Congress Party) are not willing to accept Rahul Gandhi as the Opposition’s prime ministerial candidate though they did not show any hesitation in accepting Sonia Gandhi in 2004 when she gobbled up a coalition which then came to power. In the present political atmosphere, Rahul Gandhi must find a way to work with these strong, egoistic leaders and win over them. All of this boils down to one question: As all leaders nourish prime ministerial ambitions, will they accept Rahul Gandhi as their leaderIJ 

Bringing new friends to the Opposition ranks is going to be equally difficult as regional parties like the BJD and TRS want to keep equidistance from both the BJP and the Congress, as they are the main rivals in their States. The Congress does not want to include the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Opposition. Parties like the Indian National lok Dal (INlD), PDP, Rajinikanth’s outfit, YSR Congress and other smaller parties are averse to the Congress. Since the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is already with the Congress, the AIADMK will not join the Opposition. In such situation, will the Congress support anyone else after declaring Rahul Gandhi as its prime ministerial candidateIJ Sensing the opportunity to become the face of the Opposition, Mamata Banerjee roared at a rally, “Bengal will show the way for the 2019 lok Sabha poll” and announced that she will bring all Opposition leaders on one platform in a rally to be organised on January 19, 2019 at the Kolkata Brigade Parade Grounds. It is obvious that Mamata Banerjee wants to woo the country with a massive show of strength. The BSP wants Mayawati to be declared as the prime ministerial candidate. There are others. With so many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’, the Congress must make new friends and keep old allies if it means business. It is not impossible as alliances need a give-and-take attitude from both sides

(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist