Recalibrating ties

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Recalibrating ties

Thursday, 07 June 2018 | Pravin Sawhney

While China's successful military coercion on the disputed border post-Doklam compelled Modi to confer with Xi, the need for a confidante, if not the guarantor of the Wuhan understanding, took him to Putin

Plenty of kite-flying has been done by analysts in explaining why Prime Minister Narendra Modi rushed for informal summits in Wuhan with Chinese President Xi Jinping and in Sochi with Russian President Vladimir Putin, especially when he was to meet both a month hence at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.

Since both meetings were sought by India, it is believed that Modi, known for impulsive personnel diplomacy (remember his sudden visit to meet former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in lahore), suddenly decided to exchange notes on regional and global affairs with them. From a politician, the Prime Minister had turned into a statesman.

However, the most probable reason appears to be political expediency, especially with the looming 2019 General Election. While China’s successful military coercion on the disputed border post-Doklam compelled the Prime Minister to confer with Xi; the need for a confidante, if not the guarantor of the Wuhan understanding, took him to Putin. This was admitted by Modi himself at the recent Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore.

In his keynote address, he said that India and China, which showed maturity in handling the (disputed) border issue, should develop trust and cooperation for the world’s good. His remarks were music to Chinese ears.

It is not clear if the strategic reality of the two summits was understood by India: While the United States needs India for its strategic agenda in the Indo-Pacific, India needs Russia for strategic peace with China to ensure its geo-political rise. Surely, Putin cannot and will not push Xi too hard to desist from exploiting India’s military vulnerabilities, which are plenty. But, he is certainly the only world leader who can do the most in this regard.

After the tumultuous and humiliating Boris Yeltsin years, Putin, on assuming presidency in 2000, did three things: One, he decided on a multi-directional foreign policy with its European and Asian vectors complementing each other; two, he decided to consolidate and strengthen Russia’s military-technology industrial complex; and three, he sought strategic relations with China and India (for different reasons).

It was Moscow’s warm ties with Beijing and Delhi that resulted in the annual trilateral (Russia, India and China) foreign minister’s meeting in Almaty in October 2004; with a few interruptions it has been held

regularly.

Moscow also helped India to become a permanent member of the SCO. It was this innate confidence in Russia that led Modi to seek the Sochi informal summit.

 Putin’s Russia cannot be what the Soviet Union was to India during the Cold War; but, if harnessed well, it could be the stable bridge to China. What is more, Russia can help India become a major power, which is the other reason why India should firmly clasp Putin’s hands.

Russia is the only country which has given exclusive and restrictive defence technologies for India’s strategic and war-fighting systems. Without technology prowess, no country becomes a major power, especially when in the transformational world the emphasis has shifted to hard power.

From nuclear to ballistic and cruise missiles, to space, cyber and electronic warfare, imprints of Russian defence technologies on India’s indigenous systems loom large.

Which other country would have helped India with INS Arihant, given the INS Chakra, assisted in the entire range of missiles from Agni to BrahMos, Prahaar, Akash, K-4, K-15 and the recent solid-fuel induced ramjet testIJ

It is one thing to sell weapon platforms or know-how, it is quite another to give know-why for indigenous Made in India.

According to a senior Russian official, Putin has made clear that all Indian requests for defence technologies and weapons platforms would be met provided Modi brought them up directly with him.

The case in point is the Russian S-400 air and missile defence systems. After Modi spoke to Putin about this at Sochi, Russia offered to deliver them the first batch of S-400 within four months of the contract signing.

Despite decade-long heavy exports order book, Russia found the way out by giving the S-400 in the Russian Armed Forces’ inventory to India. This has been proposed by the Federal Services for Technical Cooperation (FSTC), the single window for defence exports which takes orders from the Presidential office.

The FSTC sits higher than the Russian defence ministry, ministry of industry (responsible for commercial transactions), the nuclear and strategic command, and the Rosoboronexport (Russia’s military export agency).

Given all this, the good news is that there are signs of reformation in Modi’s foreign policy since Wuhan and Sochi. Two examples should make this point.

India’s Ambassador in Russia Pankaj Saran, who was instrumental in finalising the Sochi summit has been posted as Deputy National Security Advisor. This is when the Prime Minister’s office already has a former Ambassador to Russia, PS Raghavan who is the Chairman of the National Security Advisory Board, available for advice.

Should induction of two Russians experts suggest that the Prime Minister’s office  has decided to concentrate on its neglected relations with RussiaIJ

If the Sochi summit is anything to go by, this should be so. In all probability, there should be intense bilateral activity by India in the coming months to recover lost ground with Russia.

Moreover, having got the Sochi message, there is a perceptible change in Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Recognised for her off-handedness, she left no doubts about her disregard for Russia.

During the DefExpo held in Chennai in April this year, she spent full three days visiting important foreign and Indian companies and talking to their officials. Yet, when she came to Hall 1, which had the Russian and Israeli companies, she walked past senior Russian officials who were hoping to welcome her, to meet with the Israeli representatives. Her movements were too obvious to be missed.

Yet, recently while answering a media query she said that India would buy the S-400 irrespective of what the US does about its sanctions regime on nations who buy Russian arms including S-400. The message is clear.

Even as India builds new ties, it will continue to invest in its time-tested traditional ties for strategic autonomy. Hence, while warming up to Russia, India should maintain close relations with the US too; this would give India maximum manoeuvrability in dealing with China.

(The writer is editor FORCE newsmagazine)


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