Sena-BJP ties: Doubt looms after no-confidence motion

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Sena-BJP ties: Doubt looms after no-confidence motion

Sunday, 29 July 2018 | Hari shankar vyas

Uddhav is said to be ready to fight the lok Sabha Elections on the old formula of seat sharing, but wants the old formula for the Assembly Elections as well, apart from the CM’s chair for his party. This is said to be the bone of contention between the BJP and Shiv Sena

If the Shiv Sena’s abstaining from voting on the no-confidence motion is any indication, it is likely that the party is distancing itself from the BJP. Even after the BJP’s victory on the motion, the Shiv Sena was all praise for Rahul Gandhi, and this too can be seen as a sign of the widening gap between both parties. A Shiv Sena MP first lauded Rahul’s speech, then went on to compare the BJP and Congress with the football teams of France and Croatia, saying that even though France won the FIFA cup, Croatia won hearts.

Now the burning question is are the BJP and Shiv Sena ready to part ways or is there still a possibility of them coming togetherIJ Sources on both sides say doors are not closed forever. The final separation will take place only when the Sena announces its exit from the Central and State Governments — in the same way the TDP did at the Centre, and the BJP in Andhra Pradesh.

The Sena and BJP are likely to stay together till the time Uddhav Thackeray’s party is in the Government with the BJP. In fact, Uddhav is said to be ready to fight the lok Sabha Elections on the old formula of seat sharing, but wants the old formula for the Assembly Elections as well, apart from the CM’s chair for his party. This is said to be the bone of contention between the BJP and Shiv Sena. Some experts say both parties will go into an alliance, but it will be worthwhile to see who will bend first.

FOllOWING IN BJP FOOTSTEPS

After the recent CWC meeting, the Congress media in-charge Randeep Surjewala claimed only his party has units right from Kashmir to Kanyakumari, and Porbandar to Tripura. The Congress has always claimed to be a pan-India party, and it is on this basis that it considers the BJP a party of only the Hindi belt. But what the party finalised at the CWC meeting held last Sunday gives a clear indication that the Congress has become the old BJP, and the BJP the old Congress.

The BJP has units in all corners of the country, and party workers are active everywhere. The party has managed to make a strong base even in South India. In North-East, the BJP has formed the Government in many States. In sharp contrast, the Congress has lost power in many States. Earlier, the BJP fought in most of the States with its alliance partners, fighting on its own in very few States. Now, the Congress will fight on its own in very few States and will depend on its allies in several States.

The Congress will contest along with its partners in the five States which contribute maximum number of lok Sabha seats. In UP, WB, Bihar, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu, the Congress will fight on very few seats. These five States contribute almost half the lS seats. The Congress will fight on only 50-60 seats of around 250 seats from these States.

Earlier, the BJP would fight alongside the JDU in Bihar and the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. In N-E and Southern States, the BJP didn’t even contest. Now, the Congress is fighting along with the RJD in Bihar, the SP and BSP in UP, the left in WB, and the DMK in Tamil Nadu. In Maharashtra, the NCP is not ready to give the big brother status to the Congress, and is asking for equal seats. Now, it seems the Congress will fight on only 250-300 seats in the next lS polls.

The Anatomy of a Hug 

After finishing his speech in the lok Sabha during the no-confidence motion, Rahul went up to PM Narendra Modi and hugged him. No other issue in the recent past has been analysed as much as this hug; much more than the Kim-Trump summit or the Trump-Putin meeting. The Prime Minister then went on to give two explanations for the hugging episode. In his lok Sabha speech, he said Rahul had come to snatch his chair even before the voting! Though in the House, Modi has also gone to talk to the Opposition leaders on several occasions. However, very next day, he made the second analysis in Shahjahanpur, claiming: “We asked the reasons for their no-confidence, but when they failed to give a reason, they ended up giving a hug.”

The BJP spokesperson, Sambit Patra, tweeted that Rahul had, in fact, surrendered before Modi. Other BJP supporters said Rahul had asked the PM to stand up, arguing that if Modi had complied, the Congress would have sent out a message that nobody can dare sit before the Gandhi family. Praising Modi, they said any other leader might have stood up. When Rahul went to Modi and hugged him, all TV channels immediately described it as a courtesy, but after a few minutes, they called it Rahul’s “master stroke”. However, after 15 minutes, the discourse changed because by then all types of analysis had been circulated on social media.

IN A DIRECT FIGHT

In the next elections, the Congress will be in direct confrontation with the BJP. The BJP is of the view that it will be an easy fight as no Congress leader in any State can compete with their leaders nor can any leader pose a challenge for Modi. It can’t be denied that the Congress had given a tough fight to the BJP in the recent elections. In Goa, the BJP had lost, and in Karnataka, the Congress managed to stop the BJP despite a triangular fight and anti-incumbency factor. 

The recent CWC has decided in favour of alliances and Mahagathbandhan and it is almost clear now that the Congress will fight on 250-300 seats, where it will take on the BJP head-on. The Congress has to fight the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Assam, and most other N-E States.

The Opposition parties want alliances in such a manner that there is a direct fight with the BJP on each and every seat. Even if this happens, the BJP will face the challenge of regional faces in most States. The BJP has to face off against Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati in UP, and Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar.

At the same time, Mamata Banerjee will pose a great challenge in West Bengal, Stalin in Tamil Nadu, Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, and Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi.

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