How the Congress' win in the three Hindi heartland States informs the dance of democracy and steps gingerly around the mahagathbandhan
The very creditable electoral success of the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan has justifiably given the Grand Old Party a spring in its collective step. But the thing is that this achievement, and it is a major one to come back virtually from the dead against multiple-term incumbents from a dominant ruling dispensation, has also caused some consternation among the bevvy of regional political heavyweights arrayed against the BJP in their respective States who are crucial players in a putative Opposition grand alliance or mahagathbandhan. To use an analogy from the dance floor, it takes two to tango but when one partner breaks into a foxtrot the other tends to get breathless keeping pace.
Messrs K Chandrashekar Rao, Naveen Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee, MK Stalin, Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Sharad Pawar, Deve Gowda, Arvind Kejriwal and, arguably, the BJP’s perennially suspect ally Nitish Kumar would clearly prefer a non-BJP, non-Congress Federal Front which could control a substantial chunk of over 250 MPs that will be elected to the Lok Sabha from their respective States of operation as opposed to a UPA kind of arrangement with the Congress as primus inter pares. Even N Chandrababu Naidu, often compared to the late CPI-M general secretary HKS Surjeet who played the role of a good-faith mediator in setting up non-Congress non-BJP coalitions at the Centre in the 1990s for his current efforts at building Opposition unity, could easily be co-opted into this arrangement if and when push comes to shove.
Rahul Gandhi’s perfectly valid comment during his Press conference on the evening of December 11 as the results of the Assembly polls came in, speaking of the ‘resurgence’ of the party he heads, has therefore been seized upon by those in the Opposition ranks with a deep vein of anti-Congressism running through them as evidence of the latent hegemonic ambitions of the Congress finding play. And that is the crux of the matter. Not because the AICC does not have an unalienable right to build its organisational strength, reposition aspects of its philosophy to stay in tune with an overarching sense of an Indic heritage and make a concerted effort to recover lost electoral ground over vast swathes of India, but because the political landscape today means these attempts will run into opposition not merely from the BJP, which is the other pan-India political party in the fray, but regional forces that militate in theory and practice against the unitary impulse of the Indian state.
The immediate task for the Congress is to assuage the apprehensions of the regional parties to prevent anti-BJP forces from splintering in the run-up to 2019 while, in the medium term, re-building the party on the lines of the Pachmarhi resolution which senior party leaders understandably do not find it politic to mention in public these days. This is obviously not lost on the leaders of the putative Federal Front whose support base and ideological orientation precludes any adjustment with a Narendra Modi-Amit Shah controlled BJP but replace the duo, if you will, with a collective leadership of more moderate faces and all bets are off. After all, apart from the Congress and Communists, there is not a single regional party not counting the comparatively recently founded AAP and TRS, which has not, at some stage over past three decades, been a BJP ally.
So, what can the Congress do and how should it go about doing it? Well, back to the dance floor for answers.
The first step: A close cinch in a slow dance is strongly recommended on the principle that one keeps one’s friends close and enemies even closer; think BSP. The temptation to break into a waltz will be ever-present but needs to be resisted; remember what happened to the Congress in Uttar Pradesh in the 1990s when the late Narasimha Rao first tried it on with the late Kanshi Ram. The DMK and Kamal Hassan in Tamil Nadu ought also to be firmly in the close dance embrace. Ditto, the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra and Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka.
Next, the Congress needs to jump generations and look at a breakdance where one can do one’s own thing but in one’s partner’s vicinity who is probably more adept at it; and if the number is well-choregraphed, it can give the illusion of both dancers being in sync. Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Trinamool Congress, and AAP all probably fall in this category.
The temptress’ dance — and the phrase used here in a gender-neutral political sense obviously — is of the essence for the Congress to perfect for the likes of the Janata Dal (United) and possibly even the YSR Congress of Jaganmohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh if the TDP number goes awry in those parts. Samajwadi Party, too, would perhaps need a bit of the old Vera of the Seven Veils treatment, as it were, in conceding a few seats to it in States other than Uttar Pradesh.
But it can’t just be one happy-hippy beach party grind for the Grand Old Party if it is serious about reclaiming its position as the second pole of national politics, the BJP having firmly ensconced itself as the other despite the electoral setbacks in the Assembly polls. In States where it is still the main Opposition to a ruling regional party and has some organisational heft albeit with the BJP breathing down its neck, the Congress may have to dump its potential dancing partners for the 2019 Lok Sabha poll even while maintaining surface camaraderie. The CPI-M in Kerala and Biju Janata Dal in Odisha are two such.
There will surely be some in the Congress and among those simpatico who will think of the above as a very cynical assessment of the political lay of the land as India heads into a General Election. They would be right. But they would be naïve to think that the regional parties that constitute the opposition to the BJP in many States will be working in anyone’s interest but their own, as it’s their right.
If India is, at long last, to head towards a two-party/alliance system, there is no better time for it to come to fruition than in 2019. Because with the regional parties on either side today strong enough to command respect and demand autonomy from the national party they align with, the prospects of such a bipolar polity lasting and taking root are much brighter than ever before.
(The writer is a senior journalist, an independent media consultant and commentator on contemporary affairs)
