The odds are stacked against Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje. Her third term depends on her actions now. She must get a grip on the situation
Of the three BJP-ruled States — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — scheduled to go to polls at the end of the year, the party is really worried about Rajasthan. This more so after it lost two lok Sabha seats and one Assembly seat in the State which proved that anti-incumbency factor is working against Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje. The BJP is desperate to retain power in Rajasthan and the Congress wants to return to power. The Congress and the BJP have alternatively been forming the Government in the State for more than three decades now.
Raje hails from a royal family in Gwalior and is the erstwhile Maharani of Dholpur, a princely state. She came into her own when she became the first female Chief Minister of Rajasthan in 2003. Ever since, she has been protecting her turf for the past two decades and even challenged her patron, former Vice President of India, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. One of the slogans heard in Rajasthan during a recent campaign was ‘Modi Tujhse bair nahi, Rani teri khair nahi’(Modi, we have nothing against you but Rani — Vasundhara Raje — we are not going to spare you). So it is only natural that the party is trying to pull up its socks.
Rajya Sabha Member and a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) veteran Madan lal Saini has been appointed as the unit president of Rajasthan after several rounds of discussions. Raje won this round by blocking BJP chief Amit Shah’s first choice of Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, and, thus, Saini was the consensus candidate. She had total control over the State unit and appointed her loyalists to sideline her detractors. The problem is that with her waning popularity, she has to fight a growing number of detractors from within the party along with Opposition Congress.
In the current context, the odds are against Raje. The first matter is of double anti-incumbency because the BJP is ruling both in Rajasthan and at the Centre. Besides, 2018 is not 2013 and today, she is one of the most unpopular BJP Chief Ministers. She is known for inaccessibility as well as for lack of functioning. Some leaders have even complained against her to the High Command. Also, she has not been able to address issues like unemployment, price rise, Government staff pay hike, doctors’ strike and deteriorating law and order situation in the State. Besides, charges of being soft on corrupt officers have stuck her. The business community is also disenchanted after the roll-out of the GST. Agrarian distress is yet another issue. There have been several protests by the farmers and it was only recently that the Government enabled them to procure loans from banks.
Second, RSS, which was mainly responsible for the BJP’s victory in the State, is also disappointed with the Chief Minister and has distanced itself from her. This was one of the reasons for the by-poll loss for the BJP. The RSS is put off by the way she cold-shouldered them. Third, though Raje managed to save her pride by winning the Dholpur constituency last year, from where she made her political debut in 1985, the BJP lost 17 Assembly and one lok Sabha seat under her leadership. The party even lost seats where it had traditionally been very strong. The BJP candidate from Ajmer lost to the Congress by over 84,000 votes from a seat it won by a margin of more than 1.70 lakh votes in 2014. In Alwar, a seat that the BJP won by over 2.84 lakh votes in 2014, the party lost it by a massive margin of over 1.96 lakh votes.
Fourth, the BJP State unit is facing revolt from leaders like Ghanshyam Tiwari who has floated an outfit ‘Deen Dayal Vahini’, alleging corruption at high places. There are other disgruntled elements who have raised their voices. Factional fights and indiscipline need to be addressed on an urgent basis.
Fifth, Raje has alienated influential caste groupings such as Jats, Brahmins, Rajputs, and Gujjars. The Gujjars and Brahmins are also turning against the party over reservation and other issues. Jats are confused as they now lack charismatic leaders like Nathuram Mirdha, Parasram Maderna, and Ram Niwas Mirdha. The BJP is in a catch-22 situation. While losing the State in the Hindi heartland is a cause of worry for the party, a change in the leadership might rock the boat. Raje is the BJP’s best pet but she is also its weakness. Rajasthan gave the BJP 25 out of 25 lok Sabha seats in 2014. It is, however, not too late to rectify mistakes. For this, Raje should improve the implementation of State and Central schemes and come up with more welfare schemes. To her credit, she has introduced several welfare schemes like Bhamashah Yojana, Mukhyamantri Jal Swavlamban Abhiyan, Gramin Gaurav Path Yojana and opened several Annapurna stores. More importantly, the BJP should adopt a softer approach towards disenchanted caste groups to make them come back into the BJP fold, mollify various factions and try to take them along. After the by-poll defeat, Raje said, “We will go to people, work harder and win back their blessings,” and that is what she must do. Combined with her royal mystique and a change in her style of functioning, she might improve her chances of winning. But if the Congress shows a united face, it will be difficult for Raje and the BJP.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)
