Assembly election results of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh has not only set the template for the Lok Sabha elections, which is expected to be announced in the first week of March next year but also clearly drawn the battle lines for what is expected to be one of the fiercest elections ever.
For the Congress the biggest take-away from the polls is undoubtedly the emergence of Rahul Gandhi as an unassuming leader who has shed his past baggage of indifference, political immaturity and dynasty and come on his own.
For BJP, the biggest setback undoubtedly has been the demolition of the myth and hype built around the invincibility of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party chief Amit Shah.
Till these three elections happened, BJP had become one big electoral juggernaut demolishing one political opponent after the other convincingly. Routine rout of the opposition in the elections had built an aura of invincibility around Modi-Shah duo—the mass connect of Modi and the Chanakya like strategy of Shah had become a part of political punditry and had been instilled in the BJP-RSS workers.
On the contrary, repeated defeats had affected even the body language of the Congress leaders. They had got into the defeatist mode, occasionally without any fight like in Goa. Rahul Gandhi and Pappu had almost become synonymous, popularized as it was by the WhatsUp University of BJP’s IT Cell. So much so, there was a time when even die-hard Congress workers started believing the falsehoods sent to them on a platter on their mobile phones like how ineffective a leader was Rahul Gandhi and how his stewardship was taking the party to peril.
December 11, 2018 changed this political narrative for all time to come. This comes barely three months before the announcement of the general elections, triggering a political tsunami and throwing open all sorts of possibilities. All of a sudden there is a spring in the steps of the Congress workers while in the BJP, an element of doubt has crept in.
“Will Modi magic work or not?” is the million dollar question BJP supporters are now asking. Even though the party spokespersons keep hammering and repeating that the Modi magic is intact and issues of Assembly and Lok Sabha polls would be entirely different, this is hardly convincing for the skeptics as well as supporters. They know well that Assembly elections in these very states five years ago in 2013 and victory in them had set the ball rolling for BJP and it built the momentum for the wave of May 2014.
Five years down the line, momentum is now with the Congress and it will go to the Lok Sabha polls with the winning momentum going for it. In fact, the momentum for Congress was building up from Gujarat assembly polls in December 2017 where for the first time, Modi had to campaign really hard and Shah had to use all his electoral arithmetic and punditry to romp home. A resurgent Congress had given BJP a run for its money in a state which for long has been considered a laboratory for Hindutva politics.
There was more to follow. Karnataka was widely billed to go the BJP way. This is what the spin doctors of the party had projected. Sulking Yeddyurappa was back with BJP, moneybags were with the party, Congress government was facing anti incumbency and what not. Everything was supposedly going for BJP and against Congress. But that was not to be. BJP failed to get a majority on its own and what made matters worse was the unprincipled way in which Yeddyurappa was sworn in as chief minister, raising several ethical questions.
Mukt Bharat was too arrogant a slogan,” said a BJP leader, adding that this was a classic case of unrealistic politics, bereft of grassroots reality. He hoped that this slogan would never be raised now and if raised, it would instantly become a matter of ridicule. Similarly, targeting figures like Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi would hardly find a traction with the primarily young voters and so would be extolling the virtues of Sardar Patel and Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose. “Leave historical figures alone for history books and academic discussions, not for electoral rhetoric and as poll issue,” summed up the leader.
In the run up to the Lok Sabha polls, obviously BJP would try to turn it into some sort of presidential election, pitching Modi versus Rahul and asking people will they vote for an untested, timid and unwilling leader or go for the qualities of “time-tested, strong with muscular politics” .
The second strategy of BJP would be to polarize the polls with a strong pitch for Ram Mandir at Ayodhya. But given the fact that the issue has already been milked to the hilt by BJP for the last over a quarter of a century and has yielded rich electoral dividends, a point has come where it has reached a saturation level.
It can no longer yield the same result and the law of diminishing return would automatically apply. This is what has happened in the three states.
So what’s the way forward for BJP? Number one would be abandoning its Congress Mukt Bharat pitch. Then comes drawing a list of achievements of its major decisions—demonetisation and GST and keep hammering it hard repeatedly and see how much traction it gets. Third, would be to boldly answer allegations on Rafael deal rather than be defensive about it. Fourth would be decentralization of power from the Modi-Shah duo to the state level and giving more power, support and autonomy to its MPs. “At present, party MPs are treated more like booth level workers to whom directions are hurled and there is no process of consultation involved,” a BJP MP told me after the poll results.
Last but not the least would be not to go for polarization through UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. He will hardly attract new votes as assembly elections of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh has indicated where he campaigned extensively and at the same time, it would irretrievably damage the body politic of the country. Already banners have come up in Lucknow extolling the hardliner Yogi as PM material and where Modi has been painted as some sort of a liberal.
Similarly, what’s the way forward for Congress? Right now it is the default opposition party in several states and is expecting to get the anti incumbency votes from those who expected too much from the first majority government of BJP in decades. This complacency has to end. First, it has to come out with an aggressive solution to the problems it has been highlighting.
It should spell out what would it do to solve farm distress beyond loan waiver. Secondly, if traders and small enterprises are distressed, what is your solution to their woes? You cannot simply abuse the incumbent government and not come out with any solution. Third offending slogans like “Chowkidar Chor hai” should be banned; it is similar to “Congress Mukt Bharat” and even worse. What would its policies be at the Centre which would be different from the ones followed by BJP government? It also has to spell out its plan for job creation and how will it go about it.
The days of slogans and sloganeering are over. The youth had a lot of expectations in 2014 and will have similar expectations in 2019 as well. Hollow and emotive slogans would no longer yield electoral dividends. Both parties should come with slogans and policies which are implementable and also give details how they will proceed with it. That would be the key to gain the trust of Indian electorate.
(The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneer, Chandigarh)
