Hot Bay of Bengal brewing yet another cyclone!

| | BHUBANESWAR
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Hot Bay of Bengal brewing yet another cyclone!

Monday, 22 October 2018 | SANJEEV KUMAR PATRO | BHUBANESWAR

For the Titli-battered Odisha, the first week of November holds possibility of another round of deep depression or cyclonic storm induced rain.

The alarming fact for the State is a hotter Bay of Bengal is now apparently in the process of conceiving another such cyclonic storm, post the birth of very severe cyclonic storm Titli.

And this time too, southern Odisha is to receive the rainfall following the system being developing in Bay of Bengal.

However, while the IMD has though in its last weather inference mentioned about the cyclone genesis as it forecasted about formation of a low pressure area (LPA) over north Andaman sea and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal, it maintained that the LPA has low probability of intensifying into a depression subsequently.

It needs mentioning, however, here is the IMD would update its forecast on the cyclone genesis in north Andaman Sea again on October 25. But an Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) model suggests the LPA to develop into a depression by October 26-27 and intensify further to a cyclonic storm by October 28.

The INCOIS model also suggests the probable direction of the movement of the ‘possible cyclonic storm’, whereby the weather inferences drawn reveal that the possible cyclone to move towards the Kakinada-Visakhapatnam coast. The INCOIS weather inferences further reveal that as the factors responsible for cyclone gensis are very much present in the Bay of Bengal, the LPA would develop into a depression and then intensify further into a cyclonic storm.

The Bay of Bengal’s surface temperature is now hovering at over 33 – 34 degree Celsius, which is abnormally higher than the normal sea surface temperature during October. Moreover, with the prevailing wind velocity remaining at around 33km/hr and along also with the prevailing of easterly winds as suggested so by the model by indicating the wind direction in Bay of Bengal at around 80 – 90 degrees from north, which would then together host the cardinal factors for development of the LPA to a depression by October 26-27.

An analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) around Odisha coast reveals the SST hovering at around 32-33 degrees Celsius. This reveals the coast adjoining to landmass of Odisha has a very high atmospheric pressure. And cyclones are systems that move from low to high pressure fronts. However, what apparently stands on the way of the systems moving towards Odisha is the wind shear, means variation of wind’s speed and direction.

The direction of winds around Odisha coast is around 15 –20 degrees from north, which means they are not vertical. Vertical winds play an important role in sustaining a cyclonic storm and influence its movement too.

It needs reminding that in past Odisha has witnessed two cyclones in a month. The year 1999 saw one cyclone hitting Gopalpur with around 150km/hr on October 17 and another cyclone developed in and around the north Andaman Sea hitting Paradip on October 29 with around 300km/hr. The rest had been a catastrophic story for Odisha, both socio-economically and politically.

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