The October Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana will be an evaluation of the Centre’s crucial steps like the revocation of Article 370 in J&K, the NRC and the ban on Triple Talaq 

The Election Commission of India has sounded the Assembly poll bugle for the two Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-ruled States, Maharashtra and Haryana, which will go for elections on October 21. The BJP is not only eyeing a comeback but also a much bigger margin.  The saffron party is poised to win both the States mainly because of the disarray in the Opposition ranks.

 The elections in these two States will be a test for  Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as they will be the first Assembly polls after his 2019 impressive Lok Sabha win. It will also be an evaluation of the Centre’s crucial decisions like the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the ban on Triple Talaq. 

The Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’ leadership is also at stake although the BJP is depending on Modi’s charisma to work its magic again. Above all, the results will show whether the sliding economy is going to be a factor for voters or not. Given the fact that  Mumbai is the financial capital of the country, the economic slowdown is a big issue in these polls, though the Modi Government has announced a slew of fiscal measures to give a boost to the financial system in the last one month.

  However, the BJP has to guard against trouble regarding the defectors from the Congress Party and the  Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and also over ticket distribution.

The BJP is looking for an opportunity to emerge as an umbrella party like the Congress used to be earlier. The saffron party has been on an accelerated path of growth since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2014 Assembly elections, after the four-way contest, the BJP emerged as the single-largest party, followed by the Shiv Sena (63), the Congress (42) and the NCP (41).

The BJP’s ally Shiv Sena is still haggling over seat sharing and also bargaining for the post of Deputy Chief Minister for Aditya Thackeray, son of Uddhav Thackeray. The Sena has also welcomed with open arms, defectors from the Congress and the NCP. The Sena finds that it has to guard against the BJP’s onslaught as the saffron party has overtaken it in the last 24 years. While the Sena has registered a modest 3.09 per cent increase, the BJP grew by 16.3 per cent.

 As for the Congress, this will be the party’s first Assembly election after the return of Sonia Gandhi as the Congress president.

The Congress and its alliance partner NCP are the main challengers to the BJP-Sena combine. However, the Congress is in a disarray both at the local and national level, its morale is at the lowest point and it is facing not only a leadership crisis but also factionalism and indiscipline. The more important worry for the  grand old party is the mass erosion in its ranks as several leaders, including the Leader of Opposition Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil and former Minister Harshvardhan Patil, have left the Congress and joined the BJP while Abdul Sattar joined the Shiv Sena.

Sonia Gandhi has been trying to restore some order but it is too little and too late to make a major difference.

The BJP and the Sena have made inroads in the Western Maharashtra, Vidarbha and Marathwada. A win in Maharashtra, where the Congress had remained dominant for decades, would go a long way in boosting the morale of the party.

 The Congress Party’s alliance partner, the NCP, too, is not in good health.

The two parties, which joined hands in 1999 after Sharad Pawar launched his new outfit, ruled Maharashtra together for 15 years but had also, contested the 2014 Assembly elections separately. But like the saffron parties, the Congress and the NCP also reunited for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Pawar is fighting a lonely battle with some of his long-time associates and staunch supporters like Vijaysinh Mohite Patil, Padmasinh Patil and Madhukar Pichad, leaving him to join the BJP. The ageing Sharad Pawar is not in good health and has lost his grip on the rank and file. The NCP, too, is facing factionalism and indiscipline. So the two ailing parties will find it difficult to challenge the combined might of the BJP-Shiv Sena combine.

 Though the Congress-NCP combine is the major challenger, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), led by Prakash Ambedkar, has been trying to emerge as the third front in Maharashtra’s largely bipolar politics. The VBA will only cut into the votes of the combine.

 The Opposition has identified key points like the economic slowdown, rural distress and unemployment as major poll issues while the BJP wants to showcase the achievements of the Modi Government at the Centre and the Maharashtra Government. It also wants to invoke nationalism and its strong leadership.

 Maharashtra, a major State, is significant in multiple ways and so the BJP wants to consolidate its strength while the Sena is trying to guard its turf.

For the NCP, it is all about survival while for the Congress Party it is keeping up its relevance in the country and Prakash Ambedkar is expecting a big break. Many predict  the fight may be one- sided as the BJP has an edge in Maharashtra with the momentum gained from the Lok Sabah verdict coupled with the growing stature of Devendra Fadnavis.  It will not be a big surprise if the two saffron parties win the polls not just effortlessly, but also with a bigger margin this time.

(The writer is a senior journalist)