With immediate neighbours possessing significant capabilities and militaries that are modernising rapidly, India needs to beef up its national security apparatus
From election to election, year to year, we Indians have got used to living with hopes for the better. Every new year begins with a lot of expectations but usually ends in dismay. However, of late, there has been a change in this trend. We have a Government in place, which not only believes in flagging issues of national importance but also walks the talk by attempting a closure of issues, no matter how controversial. It doesn’t want to “sleep over the problem.” Another year is on the horizon and people expect changes that would not only make their lives better but take our nation to greater heights so that it can occupy its just place among the comity of nations. A secure India, both at the borders and in the hinterland, is the desire of many Indians because only a safe and secure nation can concentrate on development that is needed to make a quality difference.
India has embarked on the path of becoming a superpower. This is why it needs to tread the path of strategic alliances carefully, keeping in mind the nation’s interests. We have succeeded in unifying the world to fight the menace of global terrorism but are yet to see a world that is free of it. To my mind, the fight against terrorism must continue in 2020, both at home and abroad. For us to be taken seriously worldwide, we need to establish India as a military power from a military force. We need to prepare ourselves to meet the twin threats emancipating from China and Pakistan, through capability and capacity-building. Terror threat in our immediate neighbourhood as also back home must continue to be our main focus area in the immediate future.
In order to negate Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail, there is a need to regain the conventional edge over its armed forces through modernisation of our own. Development versus security is a dilemma faced by every developing nation but the ones, which have not compromised on security, have emerged stronger in the given time space. The success story of modernisation of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and its unparalleled economic growth is a classic example. We need to spend at least 2.5 to three per cent of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) consecutively for a decade to modernise our armed forces.
Without a strong military, no nation can claim to be a formidable power. The existing deficiencies and future requirements to cater to newer conventional and non-conventional threats need to be beefed up. Procurement procedures need to be made efficient and accountable. We also have to be prepared to meet the challenges from the neighbourhood. Any instability in the neighbourhood will effect India as well. We need to develop capability for regional intervention as well as for regional and maritime projection. India, being an emerging power, needs to cater to multiple contingencies and, hence, have multiple options. Adequate deterrence capabilities across all spectrums — from sub-conventional to nuclear — will make us a perfect military power.
Pakistan, with its failing economy and China being cautious of its international image, will increasingly resort to hybrid warfare, which emphasises on tactical level and grey-zone conflicts and incorporates a long-term strategic dimension in international disputes. Such type of operations occasionally pass the threshold of war. Response to this type of a warfare is not purely military but collective, including political and economic. Thus, there is a need to be prepared across different spectrums and spheres to meet growing challenges. Hybrid warfare and grey-zone conflicts are usually considered to be synonymous but they are not. On the one hand, India has to ward off China’s “unrestricted warfare” threat, particularly in the North-east and in our neighbourhood. On the other hand, we face hybrid threat based on unconventional means and employment of non-state actors, particularly in our northern and western borders.
While the former closely approximates the grey-zone conflict with strategic intent, the latter resembles the hybrid warfare based on tactical and operational level acts, basically aimed at fragmenting our country. Thus, in 2020, the Government must concentrate on formulating protocols and procedures to meet the challenges posed by these twin threats.
A beginning has been made with the much-anticipated appointment of a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). Not only the selection but even the concept of CDS is nascent and would need time to stabilise. “Purplisation” of the Indian armed forces would not be that easy. The Government needs to be complimented for taking the bold decision and setting the process in motion. The much-needed reforms in the Defence Ministry to curb the widening gulf between the bureaucrat-led Ministry and the armed forces, whose professional advice is generally overruled by generalist bureaucrats, is the next bold step the Government needs to take.
Perfect harmony and professional respect will be needed between the three service heads and the CDS for the idea of “first among the equals” to succeed. Also, a clear line will have to be drawn between the charters of CDS and the National Security Advisor (NSA). The idea to succeed would need unbridled support from the political hierarchy, which so far needs to be more inclined towards the bureaucracy.
To stake our claim as a formidable power, we have to ensure that we have enough means militarily, and otherwise, to ensure protection of our vital national interests and security objectives. There is a need to identify weaknesses and gaps in our security structure and take measures to plug them. For this, the need is to formulate a national security doctrine, which is long overdue. In the absence of a doctrine, various organs of the Government and other stakeholders are unable to prepare a coordinated response to meet threats and challenges to our national security. From the doctrine will flow the national security strategy, which will enable different stakeholders in the Government to carry out an “ends versus means” analysis and prepare the perspective plans for their respective Ministries. 2020 is the year when the much-awaited national security doctrine may see the light of the day.
Internal security situation in the country appears to be moving towards normalcy. Certain peripheral militant groups are trying to raise their ugly heads to undermine peace, tranquillity and communal harmony. Popular Front of India (PFI) is developing into a potent threat and its political wing, Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), has a significant following in the Southern States and is spreading its wings in the Eastern States, too. Growing links between the PFI and various illegal immigrant organisations is another cause of concern. PFI also has a big hand in growing radicalisation in South India.
As far as Jammu & Kashmir is concerned, Pakistan will continue to be an irritant till it is forced to give up the policy of State-sponsored terrorism. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, while addressing the passing out parade of Gentlemen Cadets at Indian Military Academy, Dehradun, comprehensively summed up the deep State of Pakistan, “Besides following terrorism as State policy, several non-State actors have become much powerful in that country and State actors have been reduced to mere puppets.”
While Pakistan would continue to foment trouble, the Over Ground Workers (OGW) network, which is deep-rooted in the State, will have to be brought under control in order to root terrorism/militancy. The entire ecosystem in Kashmir is very badly subverted. OGWs are a major part of this system but very difficult to identify and segregate. They have infiltrated every organ of the State. Most of them have a dual face. They are hardcore nationalists when in a gathering that demands so, and are die-hard sympathisers of jihadis when away from that environment. They are the masters of the art of “biting the hand that feeds them.” The present relative calm prevailing in Kashmir cannot be taken at its face value. A crackdown on the OGWs in 2020 is mandatory for lasting peace, the ultimate aim, for which Article 370 has been abrogated.
(The author is a Jammu-based veteran, political commentator, political analyst, security and strategic analyst)
