BJP’s resounding victory in UP signals a triumph of developmental politics over the casteist variant. The pre-election payment to sugarcane growers worked too
This Lok Sabha election has broken many myths not only at the national level but in Uttar Pradesh (UP), too. This is for the first time that a Government at the Centre has not only warded off the anti-incumbency factor but has, in fact, improved its position in many decades. It’s an oft-repeated saying that the road to Delhi’s seat of power passes through UP and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) proved that its pan-India weight could fill any trough, even the one in UP.
Most political pundits had predicted not more than 30 seats for the BJP in this State, particularly after the gathbandhan of the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal came into existence. These parties were heavily enthused by the bypoll results of Kairana, Gorakhpur and Phoolpur, where castes like Jats, Yadavs, Dalits and Muslims played a vital role to defeat the BJP. Parties thought that this time, too, the same formula would work and the BJP would be decimated.
UP comprises more than 25 per cent Dalits, nearly 18 per cent of Muslims and 15 per cent of Yadavas and Jats. Their alliance would have been lethal to finish the BJP but this formula did not work in 2019. Belying all expectation, the BJP romped home with 60 seats. Many journalists and analysts, who analysed the outcome of the Lok Sabha election, keeping in mind the caste angle, ignored something that clearly worked in this election — the politics of emotion, one which helped Prime Minister Narendra Modi project himself as the do-gooder who was being obstructed by greedy power players. And for all the polarisation, he seems to have cut across the masses in terms of appeal and acceptability as a worthy choice in a national bet.
So while in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, there was a discernible Modi wave sweeping across the country, in 2019, there was a complete denial of this wave by most parties and political commentators as well. The SP and BSP are, without doubt, casteist parties. While SP depends heavily on the Yadavas and Muslims, BSP claims the monopoly over the Dalits votes plus some Muslim votes. It is an unconcealed fact that by and large, Muslims have been against the BJP and in this election were expected to vote against the BJP. Muslims are considered to be politically very wise and vigilant and they vote in favour of the candidate who can defeat the BJP, irrespective of the party he/she belongs to. This was the reason why the gathbandhan was overconfident of pulverising the BJP this Lok Sabha election. It was considering itself to be invincible but all the planning proved to be day-dreaming. The reality is that in this complicated deal, vote transference didn’t happen among partners across the State though it had worked at the bypoll level.
The Congress has almost no presence in UP. It has been non-existent for all practical purposes for nearly three decades. Yet for all the concentrated focus by Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi to wean the upper castes away with her temple run and boat rides, the bottomlines are disastrous. Except for Rai Bareli, the grand old party has not been able to retain even Amethi from where its national president Rahul Gandhi was contesting. These two seats have been the pocketborough of the Congress and except for 1977, both have always been held by the party. The so-called Congress Brahmastra, too, failed.
Now let us consider how the BJP was able to shatter the dreams of the gathbandhan. Results show that while the SP-BSP combine could not make any significant change in the political contours of Uttar Pradesh, the BSP has been quite lucky. In fact, it has ridden piggyback on the larger appeal of a front. In the last Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the BSP had drawn a blank. On the other hand, SP could secure five seats last time, mainly held by family members, including one by Mulayam Singh Yadav. This time, it has held just nine seats. However, the BSP under Mayawati has improved its tally from zero to 12. This shows that despite getting full support of Muslims and Yadavas, the SP has not been able to get the Dalit votes transferred in its favour. It is also alleged that Mayawati did not send her message to the Dalits in favour of the SP candidates because in her heart of hearts, she does not like the Yadavas. This was enough for Dalits to not transfer their votes in favour of the SP, which is dominated by the Yadavas and who are considered to be the musclemen. In the last Assembly election, Mayawati had coined the slogan “Chadh Gundan ki Chhati Par, Mohar Lagao Haathi Par.” She used to say that Yadavas are the cruel oppressors of the Dalits and this slogan silently resonated in this election, too.
While the gathbandhan parties were mainly dependent on the votes of Jat, Yadavas and Muslims, the BJP, under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, was telling the people about their achievements. There is no denying the fact that the pace of development in Uttar Pradesh has been very fast. Almost all villages in the State are now connected with motorable roads, every household has electricity, every family avails gas connection under the Ujjwala Yojana. There is hardly any house even in the remote countryside, which does not have a toilet facility. So much so that those, who did not have a house to live, are living in pucca houses today. There is hardly any member of any family who does not have a bank account under the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana. Almost everyone has been ensured under the Ayushman Bharat Yojana.
These schemes have been implemented without any discrimination on the basis of caste, creed and religion. There was a constant crisis of urea but now it is available in plenty. Soil health cards have been distributed to all farmers, which have helped them. Hence, casteist factors could not cut any ice.
Another important factor that led to the BJP’s win is that it was, perhaps, for the first time that the farmers got timely and proper payment for their produce, particularly sugarcane growers. This is something that was unthinkable at a time when the SP or BSP ruled the State. Further, the Yogi Government also banned illegal slaughterhouses, thus winning the support of the Hindus. To top it all, not even one communal riot has taken place in the State during the period of Modi and Yogi. There was no peace, no security during the SP/BSP era. Anti-social elements used to have a field day and the police was made pliant to the MLAs and MPs belonging to the castes of the Chief Ministers of their time.
Distribution of electricity has considerably improved in small villages. Thus, the slogan of ‘Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas’, has gone down well with the people of the State. Another factor which has worked in favour of the BJP is a direct transfer of the subsidy amount in the accounts of the beneficiaries. This successfully eliminated the army of middleman and contractors, who never allowed the farmers and poor to be benefited by the numerous welfare schemes. Going forward, Balakot and surgical strikes worked heavily in favour of the BJP too, particularly in rural areas. The BJP also sold it properly to the people.
On the other hand, the Opposition, mainly the leaders of the gathbandhan, failed to raise any issue before the electorate as they were heavily dependent on caste factors. Mayawati got so desperate that she showed the audacity of presenting Mulayam Singh Yadav as the genuine backward and Modi as the fake backward. People realised that only the family members of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati have reaped the fruits of power in amassing a huge amount of money. Corruption had become a byword during the tenures of Mayawati and Mulayam, which has been completely unheard of during the Modi and Yogi regime. This has been the reason why caste politics of gathbandhan has been buried deep and the politics of development has been preferred in Uttar Pradesh.
(The writer is Advocate on Record at the Supreme Court of India)
