Now that a new Government has been sworn in, India will do well to solve the quandary — to choose between US coercion and Iran — and do so without hurting either side

The dual optics of pushing through a $8-billion arms deal for Saudi Arabia, using a rarely invoked provision of federal law that allows for Congressional bypass, and the parallel inflexibility in enforcing economic sanctions against Iran for ostensible violations of nuclear deal — that were earlier certified as fully “compliant” by the UN watchdog, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — is both unilateral and biased. Beyond the dismay in the other non-US signatories of the P5+1 (Permanent Members of the UN Security Council + Germany) on the Iran nuclear deal, concerns over the “chest-thumping militarism” of the US regime have gained traction within America itself. Over 70 US military veterans have written to the US President Donald Trump to undertake “crisis de-escalation measures” in the war-of-wits that is steadily draining the credibility of the Trump regime on matters of international fairplay and multi-lateralism.

The US has been threatening nations with “dire consequences” for violating its self-imposed sanctions against Iran. All eyes in the White House are on five countries specifically, China, India, Turkey, Japan and South Korea, who were given six-month significant reduction exceptions (SREs) to reach a stage of zero oil imports from Iran. While Japan and South Korea will abide by the US diktat, China and Turkey may disagree owing to their own geopolitical reasons against US bullying — leaving India in a quandary to choose between the US coercion and Iran on the economic sanctions. 

For now, the Indian Ambassador to the US has confirmed that India has stopped importing oil from Iran, though the plausible opportunity of re-negotiating the SRE terms of the US sanctions with the “new” Indian Government is available, now that the Cabinet formation is done. Importantly, the Ambassador reiterated the obvious concern of inflationary impact by asserting that the compliance “comes at a cost to us because we really need to find alternative sources of energy.” The element of resultant “price stability”, post-compliance, as shared and understood with the US, could allow re-negotiations in case the price and quantum as was sourced from Iran cannot be plugged from alternative sources.

Thankfully, the strategic Indo-Iranian investment at the Chabahar port has been spared the immediate curbs of the US sanctions. Beyond the obvious economic cost to India by stopping oil imports, the opening up of Chabahar port holds immense counter-leverage in India’s discussions with the US. Currently, Pakistan flexes its muscles with the US, given the geographical dependence that America has for sustaining its interest in Afghanistan as the only seaport-road route to the landlocked Afghanistan is through Pakistan. Chabahar port in Iran holds the potential to bypass the Pakistani landmass completely  and enter Afghanistan via its land border with Iran. While Iran agreeing to entertain US interest is unfathomable in the short run, it is crucial to remember that ironically, the US is more aligned to Iran on the future framework of Afghanistan than it is with Pakistan. Also in the long run, Pakistan will be a vassal-state of China with the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor imperatives and obligations and in that scenario, Pakistanis will be forced to choose China over the US for all strategic decisions. Indian diplomats have to hardsell the economic and strategic cost of isolating Iran even further as it would directly militate against the US interests, also.

Besides realpolitik, Iran has a civilisational connect, too,  and a unique modern history of reciprocity that makes it obligatory for a “moral nation” like India to consider it in its calculus of sovereign moves. The current Iranian regime’s founding father and spiritual light, Ayatollah Khomeini, has an Indian connection with his familial tree tracing back to Kintoor, near Lucknow. Unlike the royalist Shah regime preceding the 1979 Iranian revolution, who had clearly sided with the Pakistanis in the 1965 and 1971 wars, the theocratic state of Iran had surprisingly bailed out India by nullifying Pakistani machinations within the comity of Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC). Iran had also joined hands with India in promoting the “Northern Alliance” in Afghanistan, much to the discomfiture of Pakistan that was and is supporting the Talibanis. More recent tensions besetting the fragile Pakistan-Iran relations, owing to sectarian undercurrents and increasing influence of the Arabs in Islamabad, have naturally solidified the Iranian disposition towards Delhi.

Iran has only selectively retaliated by invoking the ‘K’ word (usually conspicuous by abstaining from mentioning Kashmir) and has only done so whenever it felt “backstabbed” by Indians. Incidents like India voting “against” Iran in the IAEA or its most recent capitulation to the US pressure in desisting from transacting with Iran have led to Iran teasing India with its own vulnerabilities.

Within days of India conforming to US sanctions, Iran  knowingly offered to connect its Chabahar port with the Pakistani Gwadar port and loop it within the CPEC fold. As it is, China is the biggest trade partner with Iran and is unlikely to succumb to US diktats of enforcing sanctions. Any further escalation in tensions by the US could push Tehran into the willing arms of the Chinese.

The “new” Government in India has its job cut out in the ensuing Iranian crisis and manage the same dexterously with the policy mandarins at the Capitol Hill. The hawkish Arab-Israeli pressure on Trump to up the ante against Iran aside, there is a very realistic chance of the US scoring a self-goal in Iran and pushing the same towards a bigger mess within the “Chinese bloc”. Even if India were to submit in favour of the US pressures owing to larger geopolitical considerations and payoffs, it should do so “under loud protest” by arguing in favour of the Iranian position. India must draw its own red lines with allies like the US by clearly stating its own necessities, considerations and preferences. India is the only meaningful “pivot” against China that the US has in the region — it cannot be treated at par with other nations, especially since the Indian equation with Iran does not rail against the US interests in the long-term.

(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry)