Every political party has impulses which are almost instinctive. For the BJP, the most natural thing in moments of excitement or even confusion is to fall back on nationalism and Bharat Mata ki jai; for Communists, the ideal has always been the red flag and, in the Indian context, Inquilab Zindabad; at one time, prior to Independence, the Congress used to respond with Vande Mataram, but over the decades this was replaced by genuflection before the family that has been equated with the party. Without being judgmental, it is worth recognising that ordinary Congress activists sincerely believe that it is the Nehru-Gandhi parivar that is the glue that holds the party together, is its public face and is the basis of its electoral appeal. The logic may be faulted but the reality has to be acknowledged.
It is difficult to know whether it was political panic, particularly the perceived threat of the BJP mounting an assault on the family bastions in Uttar Pradesh, or a conscious decision to face the 2019 general election with all guns blazing that prompted the decision to induct Priyanka Gandhi Vadra into formal politics. Since the decision didn’t stem from a larger meeting of the Congress Working Committee but was taken by three members of the first family, an attempt to discover the real reason may well be entirely speculative.
However, whatever the rationale, the initial impact has been exactly what the family desired. First, there is no doubt that Priyanka’s political entry has been greeted joyously by two sections. The Congress workers who were intensely demoralised after the 2014 outcome but saw a glimmer of hope after the party beat the BJP in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in the Assembly elections last year, are absolutely delighted. They sincerely believe that the Rahul-Priyanka duo have the necessary charisma to win the 2019 election for the party. Additionally, the larger Congress ecosystem—the party’s indispensable supporting cast—that includes a section of the bureaucracy and, of course, the media, also share this enthusiasm. The elation may not be based on any accurate idea of how the brother-sister duo will exactly break through the BJP support base but I suspect it is similar to the Congress’ gung-ho mood after Sonia Gandhi jumped into battle during the 1998 battle. I recall that the Congress ecosystem at that time believed that Sonia had eclipsed Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
Sonia’s entry didn’t give the Congress any boost in either the 1998 and 1999 general elections, despite the fact that Congress workers felt very inspired. This is not to say that the same story will be repeated in 2019. As of now, the various opinion polls suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public standing remains dizzyingly high. In the event the BJP is successfully able to convert the parliamentary elections into a presidential contest, Modi will still retain the advantage. Priyanka will, of course, draw curious crowds, as Sonia did in 1998 and 1999, but to believe that the inquisitiveness will automatically translate into votes may amount to a leap of faith.
The scepticism is based on three observations.
First, the Indian electorate is remarkably young with more than half the voters never having experienced the time when a member of the Gandhi actually governed the country. Whether the dynastic impulse still motivates them—unlike an older generation that still remembers Indira Gandhi, often with a tinge of nostalgia—is questionable.
Secondly, despite the impressive track record of film stars and cricketers in winning election to the Lok Sabha, an Indian election is never quite a beauty contest. There are always real political issues that are debated and voted upon. That has always been the case. The question, therefore, naturally arises: what does Priyanka Gandhi Vadra stand for? Coming into politics to give a helping hand to her brother is understandable and does indicate the closeness of the family. But it leaves the larger question of Priyanka’s political positioning unaddressed. Moreover, having chosen to be a private citizen for so long, the country is clueless about what she is all about. Her appeal rests entirely on her close physical resemblance with Indira Gandhi and the fact that she is her grand-daughter. Is this enough to sway India in 100 days?
Thirdly, the Congress ecosystem believes that Priyanka’s entry into politics has lifted the Congress’ prospects immeasurably. In a curious sort of way, this actually constitutes a vote of insufficient confidence in Rahul Gandhi, at a time when it was being said that the Congress President had come into his own. The Congress may try and overcome this possible leadership deficit by projecting the Rahul-Priyanka duo as a form of joint presidential alternative to Modi, with sister complementing the brother. It would be rash to say this approach will not work but there is an equal possibility that it may send confusing signals and sour the clarity of any campaign.
Finally, in parachuting Priyanka to the top of the Congress pile, Rahul has sent a clear signal to the other anti-Modi forces that it is unreconciled to the idea of losing its status as the principal opposition to the BJP. This may prove unpalatable to those who in a combine of regional parties taking on that role. In particular, the BSP may react fiercely to the signals the Congress is sending out, particularly in Uttar Pradesh. I may be jumping the gun but the likelihood of India’s largest state witnessing a straight contest between the BJP and the SP-BSP combine is fast receding. The Congress is determined to make the fight triangular. Whether Priyanka can give her party the additional capacity to indeed make it so will be interesting to watch in the coming weeks.
