Promise of jobs: A big election agenda

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Promise of jobs: A big election agenda

Thursday, 03 January 2019 | Balwant Mehta

Forget the growth estimates and projections, the fact remains that employment levels in India are far too low. The BJP Government will have to face some troubling questions on job numbers in the Lok Sabha election

Two key problems emerged from last year’s Assembly election — job crisis and farm distress. The Congress, that recently got elected in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, is already working on it through promises of loan waivers and jobs. But history seems to be repeating itself for the BJP, which came into power in 2014 with the promise of generating two crore jobs for the youth every year. On its part, the Government has been trying hard to dispel the gloom and escape political embarrassment. It has been citing the job  numbers thrown up by the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO). Rajiv Kumar, NITI Aayog Vice Chairmen said: “Huge disbursement of Mudra loans and EPFO data shows that enough opportunities for employment and self-employment were created during the past years. A number of other schemes such as ‘Start-up India’, ‘Make in India’ and ‘Stand-up India’ among others have created many new jobs. Around 70 lakh jobs were created in the financial year 2017-18 alone.”

However, in reality, the story is entirely different. Rising dissent among the youth is visible through frequent demonstrations. Take for instance, the furore in the name of religion. Organisations such as the Gau Raksha Dal and Yuva Vahini Sena have been opposing migrants from other States. Stone-pelting incidents on our Army men in Jammu & Kashmir, too, have seen a rise. Further, the twin shocks of demonetisation and GST have resulted in huge job losses, particularly in the unorganised sector.

Whereas, growth in EPF subscription numbers, as claimed by Kumar, may largely represent formalisation of jobs and/or a churn among young workers, not all of it may be a net addition to jobs. Most Mudra loans were availed by entrepreneurs who already had a small business and were looking for extra top-up capital. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had said, “The BJP-led Government’s promise to generate two crore jobs annually has turned out to be a gimmick.”

Available data on employment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth relationship shows that employment elasticity has declined to 0.2 or lower today.  This indicates that for every one per cent rise in GDP growth, we are creating only a 0.2 per cent additional jobs.  We need a minimum of 10 per cent GDP growth to register the kind of boost we used to get in the 1990s.

According to the Labour Bureau Employment-Unemployment survey, unemployment rate in the country increased from 3.4 per cent in 2013-14 to 4.0 per cent in 2015-16. It reached its peak around 8.5 per cent by November 2018, as estimated by CMIE. Unemployment rate in particular is rising steadily among the youth (15-29 years), and among graduates it is more than 13 per cent. This means that more youths are joining the labour force but are unable to get jobs at a similar pace. As per the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 30 per cent of the youth today are not involved in any kind of job, education or training. Pressure on jobs was also expressed by respondents to the Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey conducted by India Today in July 2018. Around 29 per cent of the respondents listed jobs as the Government’s biggest failure.

Additionally, a large number of  posts are lying vacant viz 50 per cent faculty posts in Central universities; one of three faculty positions in IITs; 20 per cent of sanctioned posts for IPS officers; one of eight pilot positions in the Air Force and many more. But the Government has not shown any intention to fill these vacancies. Thousands of youth, including highly qualified ones, applied for a few Government sector vacancies advertised during the last few years. The preference for Government jobs among the youth has been rising in recent years due to job security and post-retirement benefits, as compared to private sector jobs, which are quite volatile.

Yet, the Government is not ready to acknowledge the present job crisis in the country and prefers calling every real issue an Opposition stunt. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently said, “I don’t blame our opponents for blaming us on the issue of jobs; after all, no one has an accurate data on jobs. They will naturally exploit this opportunity to paint a picture of their choice and blame us.” But the question is: Who has created the situation of lack of accurate data on jobs in the country? It is well-known that the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) used to collect data on employment through a national-level comprehensive survey on a five-year interval regularly since 1973. It was considered to be the most credible assessment of jobs, despite criticisms for its long period.

The last NSSO employment survey was conducted in 2011-12, which was later discontinued by the Government with the introduction of a new annual employment survey in 2017. Indeed, this was a commendable because in future, job figures will be available on annual basis from a reliable source. This will not only help remove confusion about data but also help assess jobs in short intervals. The first annual employment survey was started in July, 2017 and ended in June, 2018. The draft report was prepared and approved by the statistical committee. This was expected to be released by early December, 2018. However, the Government has not released the report yet and may be available only after the polls.

For a few years, private investment almost dried up. Agriculture no longer supports half the population. Fresh pressure on jobs is the result of rural people migrating to urban areas. Besides, automation is eating into existing low skill jobs. It is obvious that the BJP Government will have to face a tough battle on this front. It will be tested against the promise of two crore new jobs per year and the degree to which it has tired to fulfil it.

(The writer is Fellow at Institute for Human Development, Delhi. Views expressed above are personal)

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