Mayawati sharing a stage with Mulayam Singh Yadav is not about healing but getting numbers for the survival of SP, BSP

The last time the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) had a happy memory was when their founder leaders Kanshi Ram and Mulayam Singh Yadav met way back in 1993 and changed the course of heartland politics forever with their unique brand of caste coalition, the backwards and the Dalits. They knew that if they didn’t rally together, the newly ascendant Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), that was cresting high on the Ram temple wave and appropriating the upper caste sensibility through a new-found sense of Hindu purpose, would run away with the vote. And they would never matter in the governance and policies of India’s largest electoral state — undivided Uttar Pradesh had 425 Assembly seats. They didn’t have emotions or rhetoric in their armour. What they had was smart arithmetic and logic, combining their votebases artfully to build a wall against the BJP. And a proud slogan as challengers in the political race rather than being easy fodder as the votebank of others — “Mile Mulayam, Kanshi Ram, Hawa Mein Udd Gaye Jai Shri Ram.” The seat-sharing worked. The BSP contested 164 seats and won 67 and SP won 109 out of 256 seats. The caste alliance government came to stay till betrayal, greed and more importantly the Yadav-Dalit push and pull dynamic, which was more statistical than organic, tore them asunder. Mutual acrimony and fisticuffs, with SP cadres physically attacking Mayawati, followed. Mayawati ruled the state for some time alone, with BJP support, and the SP allied too with Congress till the two were emaciated enough by the national parties.

So now that Mayawati is likely to address a rally with Mulayam Singh Yadav in his home turf of Mainpuri no less, it is not just an attempted healing of bitterness but a reconciliation of mutual interests and numbers. Mayawati will be appealing to Jatavs to commit to Mulayam, who in turn will have to reassure his core Yadav voters that their interests are protected. But before that, both have to convince each other, what with Mulayam losing no opportunity to recall past rivalry and criticise SP-BSP 2.0. He needs incremental support as does Mayawati, whose once invincible Dalit votepie is finally crumbling and dribbling to other parties. The question is really simple: Would they be happy as tribal chieftains than be a kingmaker in the Lok Sabha? Hopefully, past lessons have been learnt well and the takeaways can legitimise the reunion that cannot afford ego battles. None realised this more than Mayawati herself and SP’s new chief Akhilesh Yadav, who have rekindled old ties with a new sense of pragmatism. With a combined votebase that surpasses that of the resurgent BJP and having test-piloted their arrangement through bypolls last year, the Bua-Bhatija duo has worked up a chemistry of sorts. And having wrested that relevance, they have not only  rebooted the caste battle to take on the BJP’s oppressive Brahmin and Thakur regime, they are also claiming primacy over the Congress, whose voter hasn’t reposed faith in them during past seat-sharing experiments. With 80 seats in contention, the SP-BSP combine would much rather be a strong regional entity than be an adjunct. For without it, they have no reason for being. While they had hoped a weakened Congress would be a vote-cutter for the BJP, a re-energised version under Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is chewing away at their social base too. While the Congress is undercutting Mayawati by striking up an alliance with the Bhim Army, the SP has to contend with the BJP’s endorsement of Akhilesh’s estranged uncle Shivpal Yadav. In fact, the joint rally is meant to neutralise his influence in the area by positing Mulayam as the heavyweight who endorses new power equations. A loyal Shivpal has consistently batted for Mulayam, even naming him as Prime Minister. Can Mulayam choose between his son and brother on home ground and make for sound optics now? Or confuse and jeopardise what he had built? Akhilesh is working towards a reunion, having planned joint rallies with Mayawati across key constituencies. Without backing each other up, both parties are staring at a political wilderness.