The 2019 Lok Sabha election is not bereft of issues. Economic reforms, unemployment and farm crisis feature sharply this poll season. Only a change in the political scenario can make a difference. The churning will help reshape the future
It’s not an easy election for the voters, irrespective of who the parties give or deny tickets to even as voters toy between emotions and realities. They are wondering whether they should vote for emotions or keep in mind the problems faced by them. The choice is not easy to make. On the one hand, India’s economic data is puzzling, on the other, preferences of the electorate are not static. Issues are there at hand but the Opposition is unable to articulate them and the ruling combine is carrying out a vociferous campaign. True, there is a dynamic person in Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who defies all Opposition logic, but there is also an emerging leadership, not so much in the mahagathbandhan — a grand alliance of regional parties — but in the gradual rise of the Congress and its two leaders, Priyanka Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, who are the new soft faces of politics. The duo is trying to touch the core voter base with old linkages of region, caste and communities.
They are nudging the voters to rethink and have a look at financial, job and other such statistics. They are marching towards a gradual rise of votes for their party across the country. The Congress now has a Government or is part of the Government in five States — Punjab, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — with 21 per cent of the population, up from two States with seven per cent population in 2017.
Meanwhile, the BJP has been watching every step of the Congress. They feel that the grand old party has only to gain in major States like Uttar Pradesh, an old Congress bastion, where it still has sympathisers. There is also an apprehension that Priyanka’s “Ganga yatra” may impact the voters’ minds as she embraces outliers.
The Congress has had two major symbolic gains recently. First, Amrita Pandey, who is the BJP’s Uttar Pradesh president’s kin, joined the Congress in Varanasi. Second, a few days ago, Manish Khanduri, son of senior BJP leader Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri, too, joined the party. Amrita said, “I decided to join the Congress as the future belongs to it.” She accused the BJP Governments at the Centre and in Uttar Pradesh of doing precious little for the farmers, youth and other deprived sections of the society. Amrita is the narrative of the Congress. Other Opposition parties, being the fiefdom of families, are less into studying statistics. But the Congress is gradually harping on it. So far, the onslaught is soft but one that is difficult to ignore. Job data stands skewed and even the Government’s debt and supposedly unstated figures in the Budget are being played up. An emotionally-choked campaign trail, post-Pulwama, created by the BJP is apparently covering these issues.
Figures, however, are telling and much of it have come from draft reports of parliamentary committees, NSSO and CAG. On issues of defence, too, the handling of the situation in the parliamentary committee has not been deft. The Government is careful to not fall into the trap. The CAG pointed out to huge off-budget financing of about Rs 4 lakh crore in 2016-17. It said it could pose a fiscal risk in the long term in case the entity that raises the funds fails to meet debt servicing. The jobs data row has led to top statisticians quitting their job. As official figures of NSSO, considered reliable, were not available, the not-so-firm figures of a private organisation, CMIE, got credence. The CMIE said that around 31 million unemployed Indians are seeking jobs, the highest since October 2016.
Then there are also figures of a decline in male (earlier it was female) labour force participation. Data from the NSSO’s Periodic Labour Force Survey 2017-18 shows employed males at 28.6 crore in 2017-18, against 30.4 crore in 2011-12. This indicates that fewer males were employed in 2017-18. This saw a decline even in rural areas.
In India, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force. Unemployment rate in India increased to 6.10 per cent in 2018 from 3.52 per cent in 2017. The World Bank reported it in the latest report. Overall, labour force participation dropped in 2017. Such figures are always discomforting for any Government, particularly when elections are around the corner. The Government is now coming out with figures of Mudra loans. However, the banks believe loans are adding to non-performing assets (NPAs) and are reluctant to proffer it.
Is there a discontent? Apparently, it is not being noticed. The BJP’s charisma is covering it up but this hype can be deceptive as voters remain silent. This does not mean people are not aware of the problems. The cash dole — once a strict no-no for the BJP — of Rs 6,000 a year to the farmers is a mixed bag. Farmers from western Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra want that the sugar mills must not sit over their dues of about Rs 25,000 crore. The Government should pay it. This they consider is reneging on the promise of doubling their income. No one, however, denies that the cash dole is a relief post-demonetisation.
So is the Congress connecting with the rural masses? It is trying hard but its worker base is weak as is its reach. It is sending messages and holding on to people’s issues and sometimes playing up emotive ones. The cow is holy for the BJP and is not so unholy for the Congress, Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party when it comes to Uttar Pradesh. Cow vigilantism and a check on smuggling to Bangladesh have added to the woes of farmers in this State and elsewhere. The Opposition is, therefore, silently taking out a campaign to counter gau-mata politics. Castes that used to collect and dispose of the carcasses are refraining from doing it, thus widening social tensions. It is also carrying out an emotional campaign against the BJP, which had promised to protect the cow. Further, rice-growing areas are facing another problem. As the rupee appreciates and the Government takes credit for it, the move has cost us rice exports. Rising prices are affecting the volume of Indian trade in Africa. All of this points to an all-out impending battle, the churning of which will help reshape the future.
(The writer is a senior journalist)
