Both the Congress and BJP are going to face a tough battle due to the absence of significant issues and firebrand leaders. Electoral volatility, besides revealing people’s discomfort with non-performing leaders and parties, also reflects their helplessness

The 17th Lok Sabha elections, scheduled for April 11 in Uttarakhand, seem to be a lacklustre affair. Unlike previous polls, this time there is no excitement either in the public or in the propaganda machinery of the political parties. This is indeed unique as people of this State, particularly in the hill areas, are not only politically active but also divided along party lines — mainly BJP and Congress. It is the lack of issues, star leaders and aggressive campaigning that has created doubts among the voters.

Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent election rally in Dehradun pulled a massive crowd, Congress chief Rahul Gandhi’s rally at Srinagar also became the talk of town. Nevertheless, a perceptible lull was visible in both camps.

Such lukewarm response is due to three reasons: First, in its very first phase, the election has deprived the candidates an opportunity to gear up their machinery. Second, the strictness of the Election Commission has deprived them of the luxury of spending recklessly on posters, loudspeakers and rallies. Third, the candidates fielded by the political parties lack a strong presence among the electorate, particularly in the hilly areas.

The fielding of Manish Khanduri, former Uttarakhand Chief Minister BC Khanduri’s son, by the Congress has not really gone down well with the voters despite Khanduri’s claim that his father’s blessings are with him. It has, in fact, created a peculiar situation for BC Khanduri and his daughter Ritu Khanduri, a BJP MLA from Yumkeshwar Assembly constituency of the Pauri Garhwal Lok Sabha seat. The claim of both canvassing in favour of the BJP candidate Tirath Singh Rawat for the Pauri Garhwal Lok Sabha seat is also being doubted due to bloodline politics.

What could be the best example of political ambition — that sees no boundary or ideology — than this? The father was provided everything by the BJP. Even the 2012 Assembly election was contested by the party on the slogan, “Khanduri hai jaroori”, but the fear of not getting an opportunity to hold his father’s place in the BJP and lust for power allowed the son to trudge to another territory. Pauri Garhwal is also an area dominated by ex-Armymen. Therefore, this can also create confusion among them. 

The BJP has fielded three sitting MPs —  Mala Raj Laxmi from Tehri Garhwal parliamentary constituency, Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank from Haridwar and Minister of State for Textile Ajay Tamta from Almora parliamentary constituency. On the other hand, the Congress has fielded Pritam Singh, Ambrish Kumar and Pradeep Tamta respectively from these three constituencies. Pritam Singh is a sitting MLA from Chakrata Assembly constituency and also the president of the Uttarakhand Pradesh Congress Committee; Ambrish Kumar is a former MLA; and Pradeep Tamta is a member of the Rajya Sabha. Further, Mala Raj Laxmi, Nishank and Ajay Tamta enjoy good rapport with voters in their area. Therefore, the contest in these seats could weigh in the BJP’s favour.

However, Harish Rawat’s preference for Nainital in place of the Haridwar Lok Sabha seat is interesting as he had contested from there in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls and had won it, too. He had been contesting from the Almora Lok Sabha seat since 1980 and won and lost from here a couple of times before shifting to the Haridwar parliamentary constituency in 2009 after Almora became a reserved seat. However, in 2014, his wife replaced him and contested from Haridwar seat but lost to BJP’s Nishank. This time, Rawat will be contesting for the first time from Nainital parliamentary constituency against the BJP candidate Ajay Bhatt, who is also State president of the party and is contesting the Lok Sabha election for the firsttime.

Both Rawat and Bhatt share interesting political backgrounds. The former, who is a has-been Chief Minister of Uttarakhand, faced a political revolt in the State in March 2016 when nine Congress MLAs defected to the BJP and converted him into a leader of a minority Government. The Congress lost the 2017 Assembly election under Rawat’s leadership, who himself was defeated from two Assembly seats — one in Garhwal and the other in Kumaun: Haridwar rural and Kicha respectively.

On the other hand, Ajay Bhatt, despite holding the charge of the BJP’s State president, lost from Ranikhet in the 2017 Assembly election. Both leaders, who lost their Assembly seats in 2017, are confronting each other in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. It would, therefore, be interesting to see a contest between the two first-timers seeking legitimacy in the Lok Sabha. This  would be stimulating as Modi’s developmental agenda, the Balakot airstrikes, the reservation to economically weaker sections and the Prime Minister Kisan loan scheme are likely to impact voters in these parts.

The fast pace of the Chardham Road project is somewhat tilting the mood in favour of the BJP but the lack of employment for local youth can dim its prospects. Congress chief Rahul Gandhi’s NYAY scheme is also being talked about but people are not convinced about its outcome as questions about its fiscal viability and implementation module remain.

In Uttarakhand particularly, people’s awareness about local and national issues, their dissatisfaction with non-performing parties and Governments are reflected through  various election results. The first BJP-led Government in Uttarakhand was voted out of power in the first Assembly elections of 2002. But it was interesting to see that the people, who voted for the Congress in the Assembly elections, voted for the BJP, which captured three out of five Lok Sabha seats in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls.

Similarly, in the Assembly elections held in 2007, though the Congress got the vote of 46.3 per cent people and BJP of 38.2 per cent, the latter was able to form the Government with support of the UKD (Uttarakhand Kranti Dal) and Independents. However, in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress won all the five Lok Sabha seats. 

Interestingly, the BJP lost the 2012 Assembly election despite Khanduri leading the poll but captured all the five Lok Sabha seats in 2014 with a 55 per cent voteshare. Such electoral volatility, besides revealing people’s discomfort with non-performing leaders and parties,  also reflects their helplessness. As there is no effective presence of any third winnable party, the electoral contest in Uttarakhand will largely remain bipolar.

(The writer is professor of political science, HNB Garhwal University, Uttarakhand)