India and the US will have to draw a roadmap of engagements and discussions to serve as each other's natural strategic allies
Leaders of two of the world’s oldest and largest democracies will jointly face one of the biggest national minority influencer/voter groups in Houston, in what could be one of the “greatest shows around the globe” highlighting close cultural and economic ties between India and the US. The venue for this show has been carefully chosen, with attention to detail, beginning with the theme “Howdy Modi,” a play on the popular Texan greeting. The state of Texas, also referred to as the “Lone Star”, to signify its former status as an independent republic post its freedom struggle against Mexico and subsequent accession to the US, has been carefully chosen at an opportune time when Pakistan-led forces are trying to draw international attention to Kashmir. Widely used images of the Wild West, a fearless, trigger happy cowboy, riding a horse and ready to protect his cattle, fit in well with the “tough men” image of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump.
But there is more. With the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slightly short of the $2-trillion mark, Texas is America’s second-largest economy. In fact, if it were still a sovereign state it would have been the world’s tenth-largest economy. Houston, the largest metropolis in Texas, is India’s fourth-largest trading partner with bilateral trade in excess of $7 billion in 2018. This state is high on energy with crude oil productions and oil refineries fuelling many economies around the globe. Clearly India, with a $2.7 trillion economy racing towards the $5 trillion mark, needs vast energy sources to arrive early!
Those heady numbers apart, the foundation of a long-term relationship lies in creating long-term “optical frameworks” for a strategically chosen target audience. Texas is home to nearly 2.5 lakh Indian-Americans, historically conservative in their political beliefs and wealthier than other such national groups. This fits in well with both the Modi and Trump brand of politics, given their emphasis on projecting “strong men” images, saviours of culture and the clarion call to make the homeland “Great Again,” in front of a large audience.
Statistically, this would be the largest Indian diaspora (50,000-strong) both Modi and Trump will be facing in the US for the first time. This would be Trump’s brush with Indian-style election campaigning, with song, dance and promises. Promises to be made and kept, to put India-US bilateral trade talks back on the track. The world’s largest democracies hit a rough patch in the last one year with trade and tariff restrictions souring traditional relationships more than impacting the actual trade. India and the US will be eager to announce trade deals, keeping in mind domestic constituencies. The event will also see participation from American leadership cutting across party lines. Apart from Republican and Democratic Congressmen and Senators, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, the second-ranking member of the Democratic leadership, is also going to address the ‘Howdy Modi’ event. This reflects the strong bipartisan support for India-US relations.
Not surprisingly, US and Indian trade ministers have been busy in preparatory talks in the run-up to the show, with as many as ten phone calls between them. India is saddled with a not-so-official slowing economy and Trump needs a big trade victory ahead of 2020. The restrictions on benefits under generalised trade preferences may be first on the agenda from the Indian perspective, while higher tariffs on high-end medical devices and tech products will be the go-to agenda from the US side. There may be a softening of stance by either economies and a turn of phrase or a change in verbiage may ease “ready to roll” big ticket investment and partnership announcements.
On the platter also would be the great divide between India and US on definition and movement of data across boundaries. India is in the middle of framing rules and guidelines around personal and non-personal data usage, storage, monetisation and accessibility. The US and many “countries of origin of big data-using companies” are watching this space with keenness as any restrictions imposed here may lead to huge consequences for the future of investment flows. Even though data may not feature prominently in Indo-US trade talks on September 22, somewhere, the two sides ought to make it a bilateral dialogue as it will be beneficial for both countries in the long run. For now, besides a compelling three-hour broadcast on Sunday, keenly watched by many across the globe, with many more searches being generated for Houston on Google, India and the US will have to draw a roadmap of engagements and discussions to arrive at a balance for constituencies and economy on bilateral trade issues as well as serve as each other’s natural strategic allies.
(The writer is a policy analyst)
