Deteriorating air quality has given tough time to the residents of the national Capital and to Central and Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (GNCTD) as well. Keeping its upward trend, the Air quality Index has touched 312 (very poor) on the fifth consecutive day with local pollution and escalated stubble burning incidents.
Evidently, System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research (SAFAR) highlighted that pollution contribution due to paddy husk has increased sharply by 7 per cent which was 10 per cent in last week and touched 17 per cent by Friday evening.
It may be noted that Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has claimed that leading pollution monitoring agencies have misled masses about the contribution of external and internal factors of pollution for deteriorating the air.
Meanwhile, it is interesting to know how SAFAR calculates concentration of harmful pollutants in atmosphere.
According to SAFAR scientists, to measure and observe the nature of pollutant, size and its source, SAFAR has a model which requires several key inputs accurate forecasting.
According to SAFAR, major among them are - emission inventory of pollutants from various sources, weather parameter, topographical data, land use - land cover data, initial and lateral boundary conditions.
Notably, according to the scientists, the initial and lateral boundary condition for the outermost domain in meteorological model has been taken either from NCEP reanalysis or from internally generated CFS (Climate Forecast System) of NCMRWF (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) in Noida, whereas for the chemical forecast model, data has been driven from MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate).
Meanwhile, the monitoring agency has forecast 'Very Poor' air quality for Monday whereas SAFAR also updated 'Moderate' status for Saturday and Sunday.
"Anticyclone is expected to re-strengthen only by mid-fourth week and associated clear skies, and sinking motion will make the atmosphere very stable with calm surface winds. Both will lead to stagnant weather conditions (e.g., low wind speeds, descending air, and compressed boundary layer), which favour rapid fine particulate matter formation and accumulation of pollutants," SAFAR stated in its forecast.
"The crisis deepens if it is encountered with any additional internal (like firecrackers) or external emissions (stubble burning) sources. In a landlocked city like Delhi, it may lead to rapid accumulation and may trigger high pollution events. The western disturbance can positively influence air quality." "And there is a good chance for repeated western disturbances in the last week of October which is the only positive sign. Additionally, If local emissions are controlled, it will be a good check to observe and avoid air quality crises," SAFAR added.