BJP’s electoral shock to caste-based politics

| | Lucknow
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BJP’s electoral shock to caste-based politics

Friday, 24 May 2019 | PNS | Lucknow

The BJP achieved a hat-trick in inflicting a huge blow to parties pursuing caste-based politics in Uttar Pradesh. 

This is the third consecutive electoral shock dealt by the Bharatiya Janata Party to parties like Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal in the last five years. 

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP and RLD drew a blank in UP while the SP managed to win five seats — all by the party’s first family. 

However, three years later, in March 2017 Assembly elections, the SP’s tally was reduced to 47 seats, of BSP to 19 while RLD could win only one seat. 

In the 2019 general elections, against the expectation of winning 50 or more seats, the tally of these three parties is not likely to exceed 20.

To fight the BJP and prevent it from retaining power at the Centre, these three parties forged a pre-poll alliance under which BSP contested 38 seats, SP 37 and RLD three seats. The political alliance banked on the arithmetic of Dalit, OBC and Muslims, constituting nearly 80 percent of voters in UP. 

The SP, which was reeling under the impact of a prolonged family feud, took the lead in stitching up the alliance with the BSP, putting aside the hostilities of the past.

The BJP, however, upset all calculations when it focused on non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits, wooed them effectively to turn the arithmetic around.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi created a class war replacing caste war, by claiming that his caste was the caste of the poor. Yogi Adityanath further dissolved caste lines with his aggressive Hindutva campaign. 

All these, not only decimated the power of caste politics but also put a question mark on the future of the alliance.

The results also indicate that the SP and the BSP were unable to transfer their votes to each other and hostile social equations between Dalits and OBCs, especially Yadavs, prevailed over compulsions of electoral politics.

While the BSP has benefited from the alliance by ensuring its presence in the Lok Sabha, it is the SP that emerged the loser. Two of the SP’s first family members, Dharmendra Yadav from Budaun and Akshay Yadav from Firozabad, lost, dealing a major blow to family politics.

The setback to the SP is likely to spur dissidence within by those who were left out of the electoral process due to alliance with BSP and RLD. Akhilesh may also face resistance from within the family as estranged uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav is likely to be the rallying point for the dissidents. After floating his own party, Shivpal had consistently opposed the alliance calling it  a ‘Thugbandhan’.

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