The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has made winning three assembly seats — Ghosi, Rampur and Jalalpur — a prestige issue as it gears up for the by-elections to 11 seats to be held on October 21.
BJP is organising public meetings, conclaves for women and meetings with farmers, OBCs, STs among others to sensitise ground level workers. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is scheduled to address rallies on October 15, 16 and 18.
Of the 11 assembly seats going to polls, BJP had won eight in 2017.
The first challenge for the BJP is likely to come from the Ghosi assembly seat in Mau district that the party had won with a thin margin in the 2017 polls. The then BJP candidate Phagu Chauhan had won by a margin of just 7,000 votes. Bahujan Samaj Party had come second with 34 per cent votes. The seat was vacated by Chauhan after he was appointed Governor of Bihar. In the bypoll, the BJP has given ticket to Vijay Rajbhar.
The Jalalpur assembly seat in Ambedkarnagar district, considered a BSP stronghold that has a sizeable number of Dalit, Muslim and Brahmin communities, poses another challenge for the BJP. The seat was vacated by BSP MLA Ritesh Pandey after his election to the Lok Sabha.
Although BJP’s Rajesh Singh did not win this seat, he did fairly well. Many believe that Singh was runner-up because of the political legacy of his father Sher Bahadur Singh, who had won this seat on BJP ticket in 1996, after which he won the seat as an independent candidate, and then twice again on SP and BSP tickets.
Another assembly seat which may prove difficult to win is Rampur, which has been electing Samajwadi Party leader Mohammad Azam Khan since 1980, barring 1996 when he lost to Congress candidate.
Considered a traditional stronghold of the Samajwadi Party, the Rampur seat is witnessing a four-cornered contest in which the Muslim votes are expected to be divided between the SP, BSP and Congress.
In a bid to retain the seat, the SP has fielded Azam Khan’s wife Tazeen Fatma from Rampur. The BJP has fielded Bharat Bhushan Gupta.
Political experts feel that the BJP’s poll preparations are way ahead of other parties and the party also has the benefit of a divided opposition in the state.
As the BSP is contesting these bypolls, it will help the BJP.
This time, the Communist Party of India and Communist Party of India (Marxist) have also fielded their candidates.
A weak opposition has so far failed to make inflation and unemployment poll issues against the government.
The BJP has an upper hand in the bypolls in Gangoh assembly constituency in Saharanpur district that is witnessing a four-cornered fight. In 2017 assembly polls, the BJP had bagged 39 per cent votes while the Congress, which came second, polled 24 per cent votes. The SP and the BSP had bagged 18 per cent votes each.
Any swing in this constituency may change the result in favour of any party, but BJP’s Keerat Singh is leaving no stone unturned to retain this seat.
Then there is the Zaidpur seat in Barabanki district where Tanuj Punia, son of former MP and veteran leader PL Punia, is contesting on Congress ticket. Although Tanuj Punia had lost to BJP candidates on two occasions in the past, this time the road to success will not be easy for the ruling party’s Amrish Rawat.
But in the remaining seats like Lucknow Cantonment, Pratapgarh, Iglas, Govindnagar, Manikpur and Balha, the BJP has an edge over other parties.