The focus of parliamentary elections in Uttar Pradesh now shifts to 41 seats which go to poll in the last three phases in which the opposition is set to give a tough fight to the Bharatiya Janata Party as caste is set to play a crucial role.
The next three phases will witness elections in VIP constituencies like Amethi, Rae Bareli, Varanasi and Azamgarh from where Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Narendra Modi and Akhilesh Yadav respectively are in the fray.
There are other key constituencies like Gorakhpur where the prestige of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is at stake or Kushinagar from where RPN Singh of Congress is in the fray. BJP state chief Mahendra Nath Pandey is also seeking re-election from Chandauli. In these phases, polling will also be held in the epicentre of Hindutava campaign, Faizabad.
All eyes will also be on Maneka Gandhi who is contesting from Sultanpur after swapping seats with her son Feroze Varun Gandhi, who is BJP candidate from Pilibhit.
The aura of these leaders or constituencies notwithstanding, caste factor is likely to give a bigger challenge to the BJP in the remaining phases of elections in Uttar Pradesh.
In 2014, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal had won 38 of the 41 seats that will go to polls in UP in the last three phases. The three seats that the opposition won include Rae Bareli and Amethi, won by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi respectively, and Azamgarh from where SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav was elected.
In the electoral history, 2014 general elections could be termed as an aberration as the country, swayed by the Narendra Modi wave, had voted in favour of the BJP, obliterating caste lines which is pronounced in central and eastern UP.
“It is caste which decides the voting pattern in Uttar Pradesh. Political parties also field candidates on caste lines despite the fact that caste system is a taboo as per our Constitution,” said Dr Nomita P Kumar from the Giri Institute of Development Studies.
After thoroughly studying the election pattern of 2014 polls, Dr Kumar said that collective vote percentage of opposition parties was higher than that polled by the BJP in the last three phase. In phase-5, the BJP polled 40.8 per cent votes while the coalition got 52.9 per cent votes and others got 6.3 per cent.
This year, phase-5 polls will held on May 6 in constituencies like Dhaurahra, Sitapur, Mohanlalganj, Lucknow, Rae Bareli, Amethi, Banda, Fatehpur, Kaushambi, Barabanki, Faizabad, Bahraich, Kaiserganj and Gonda.
“In 2014, the scenario was no different in phase-6 in which the BJP polled 38.3 per cent votes, which was less than it polled in phase-5 but the ’ poll percentage of others went up to 9.2 points. The coalition vote percentage however remained intact which was 52.5 points,” Dr Kumar said.
In the sixth phase polls in constituencies like Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Phulpur, Allahabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Shrawasti, Dumariyaganj, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Lalganj, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Machhlishahr and Bhadohi polling will be held on May 12.
Dr Kumar said that the last and seventh phase poll was most productive for the BJP in 2014 as it polled 43.9 per cent votes, marginally higher than the opposition’s 44.1 per cent votes.
Constituencies like Varanasi, Gorakhpur and Kushinagar will be among 13 constituencies that will go to polls on May 19.
“In this scenario, the BJP faces a tough challenge from opposition in the last three phase as caste will play a dominant role,” she said.
