National politics is gradually taking shape in a manner in which the challenger is gaining traction while the defender is losing momentum. A scenario similar to the one in 2014 is emerging and of course there has been a complete role reversal this time round. The challenger in 2019 is Congress led by Rahul Gandhi while the defender is BJP led by Narendra Modi.
In 2014, the challenger was Modi; the then chief minister of Gujarat and the defender Manmohan Singh was reduced to a titular figure towards the end of UPA II and had practically abdicated his prime ministership at the altar of vicious Congress politics. He half-heartedly defended his regime, hardly campaigned and gave a walkover to the belligerent election machine of the BJP. At the fag end of his tenure, many in the political circles openly said that the jurisdiction of the Prime Minister was limited to 7 Race Course Road, the official address of the Prime Minister.
Gandhi was yet to assume any responsibility and merely made guest appearances in public space or Parliament. He, however, remained largely untarred by the alleged scams through which Congress was targeted by an extremely aggressive Modi led BJP. The saffron party started getting early traction and soon massive response and by the time final phases of the elections were held, it had turned into a wave in North and West India, something not seen in decades.
Of course, the political scenario in 2019 is not exactly similar to 2014 and Congress is yet to get the kind of overwhelming response BJP had got then. But even BJP admirers would agree that the momentum is building as the results of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan has indicated. The way Congress was on the back foot in 2014 on almost everything, BJP seems to be going on a similar trajectory five years later despite on your face bravado by its battery of spokespersons. The saffron party is busy defending a Tsunami of charges from Rafael deal to derailment of economy, from farm distress to failure in generating employment. Defending in political parlance is always difficult than attacking. Ask any party spokesperson and they will tell you that.
While BJP set the narrative in 2014, it is Congress which is setting the narrative and driving the poll agenda in 2019. Not surprisingly, Modi in his speeches in the New Year in states like Punjab and Odisha has gone aggressive in launching a diatribe against the Congress. But his consistent criticism now lacks novelty as this is what got him the dividends five years ago and cannot always guarantee a similar performance as the law of diminishing return applies in electoral politics as well.
Ironically, despite setting the narrative for the poll battle, Congress seemingly is not gaining as much as it would have liked. Even the diehard Congress supporters cannot claim at this point that the number of seats which the grand old party would get would be more than that of BJP. Congress driven agenda, however, is helping the regional parties in a big way. In fact, the gains would largely go to the non-Congress and non-BJP parties all over the country, except in states where the BJP and Congress are in direct fight with little or no presence of any regional party. Many political pundits of course argue that there is a greater propensity for the Congress to get more allies at this juncture than BJP given the dynamics of regional politics.
But what is interesting to note is the way challengers get better attention of the voters and the defender has to be on the defensive all the while during campaigning which has practically begun for the battle royale of 2019. When Modi targeted Congress over its ties with middlemen of the Agusta Westland helicopter deal, Christian Michel, going to the extent of calling him “Michel Mama”, he was addressing his core constituency only. This narrative is not likely to attract the fence sitters or the new voters as Congress was punished for its acts of omission and commission in 2014 and a series of assembly elections in the subsequent years till Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh happened.
Highlighting the follies of what Congress did five or ten years ago would not get the kind of traction now as voters know for sure that they had banished the grand old part from public discourse by handing it the worst ever defeat in 2014 so much so that the BJP slogan of “Congress Mukt Bharat” seemed almost true. It is being seen more or less as a reaction to the consistent charges of an upbeat Rahul Gandhi against the government on the Rafael deal. That is where Congress agenda of putting the BJP led NDA government in dock over Rafael seems to be working. Truth may be a casualty from both the warring sides but it has forced BJP to react and fall in the trap set by the Congress.
Rahul was young when the Bofors scandal played out in the public domain and the detractor in chief of his father Rajeev Gandhi—VP Singh, played to the gallery to pin down the Congress government effectively. Singh was the challenger then while Rajeev was the defender and failed badly. Over three decades later, it seems, Rahul has learnt a trick or two from the book of VP Singh to target the BJP government on Rafael. He is hitting where it hurts—the image of Prime Minister Modi of being the crusader against the battle on corruption. Rahul’s sole political aim is to irretrievably damage this image of Modi by means which may not always be tested on the altar of truth.
It’s an interesting phase of politics in which defending a government is gradually becoming an extremely difficult proposition. With growing aspirations of the people, it is practically impossible to meet the demand of each and every section of the huge Indian population. If you meet one demand, another would be raised and this process would continue. You have to keep inventing new narrative all the time. In fact, even in the Right, there is an extreme Right section and other section which is relatively less strident. It’s a tightrope walk for the BJP government, trying to do the balancing act between these groups of Hindutva forces alone leave alone other sections of the population. In fact, the extreme Right has many questions, the prominent of which is building of Ram Temple in Ayodhya. “If a Ram Temple cannot be built in a majority BJP government, how can it be ever built?” these groups stridently ask.
Ironically, Congress has failed to come out with any positive narrative or election plank on which it would go to the voters banking as it is on the fact that it is the default alternative against the Modi government. It is simply banking on the “fatigue” which could have set in a section of population against Modi and the fact that it is the default leader of the UPA in the country where two formations—UPA and NDA—have gradually become the norm. Modi came out with the slogans of “Acche din aayenge” and “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas”, whatever the two meant, which had caught the imagination of the country, tired as it was of the 10 years of UPA rule. Rahul is yet to come out with a positive agenda and narrative like that of Modi in 2014.
What is intriguing is that the saffron party which had come out with those winning slogans too is unsure how to approach the polls. Trying too many things at the moment, it too is yet to come out with anything promising for the future like “Acche din” slogan. Launch a blistering attack on Congress on corruption, referring to the failures of the past Congress governments, using the agencies like CBI and ED to get what it wants…these do not seem to be working nor would get the voter traction as this has been played out time and again.
So will, 2019 be fought on negative agendas? As of now, it seems that both the challenger and the defender have no new agenda to offer, even new slogans of hope. As the young voters look for hope, they will surely be disappointed by the agenda being set for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
(The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneer, Chandigarh)
