A day after Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept all seven Parliamentary seats in national Capital; political pundits feel that even if Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had fought together, it would not have made much difference as BJP polled a whopping 56 per cent of the total votes polled while the joint tally of AAP- Congress stood at 41 per cent. The gap of 15 percent is too big for any political alliance to overcome.
However, Congress would be buoyed with its improved show as its vote share increased considerably and it came second on five Lok Sabha seats while AAP took the position in the remaining two.
As far as percentage of votes polled was concerned, BJP pocketed the lion’s share of over 56 percent, while Congress took the second spot with 22.5 percent votes, followed by AAP that was relegated to the third spot with nearly 18.5 percent votes. This is in sharp contrast to 2014, when AAP came second on all seven seats polling over 33 percent votes while Congress was third with a little over 15 per cent. According to political analysis, the outcome of 2019- General Election result would not have been different even if a seat-sharing agreement between AAP and Congress had materialised. “Just before elections, Congress and AAP had started negotiations to contest Delhi seats as allies. After talks broke down, many political observers have also suggested that the split in the vote in Delhi between the Congress and AAP would benefit the BJP,” said Dharam Raj Panwar, a jeen watcher of Delhi Politics.
“It was always a clear advantage for BJP in Delhi. There were votes from the category of 18 to 30 years that broke away from AAP’s vote base and went to BJP instead of coming back to Congress. These are young generations who voted for Narendra Modi,” he added.
“Nationalism and security are also one of the reasons people in Delhi voted for BJP. I would say youngsters and women in Delhi have voted for BJP in large chunk,” said S P Arora, an expert on Delhi politics.
“People have distanced from the AAP and the reasons behind that are the party’s cultures. The way they make statements is not liked by the citizens of Delhi. The reason behind people drifted from Congress is the campaign by its President Rahul Gandhi against Prime Minister Narendra Modi by calling him “Chowkidar Chor Hai”,” he said.
“After the talks of alliance failed and the result in exit polls, most of the AAP leaders and workers were not too hopeful of their electoral prospects,” said an AAP leader on condition of anonymity.
Assembly elections are due this year in Delhi and after the recent “General Election-2019” results, AAP and Congress have started to draft their plan to win the Chief Minister’s chair in Delhi whereas BJP has also set the ball rolling by coining a slogan ‘Abki Baar 60 Paar’. A party functionary said their first task is to remove, Arvind Krjriwal as Delhi Chief Minister.
“Delhi assembly elections are just nine months away. AAP will need to figure out how to recover quickly from the setback if they want to win Delhi elections again. These results are an indication that people are thinking of rejecting the AAP and seeking an alternative in the Congress, which was not the case in 2014, not the case in 2015 or even 2013 assembly polls,” said an expert on Delhi politics.
In 2014, while both AAP and Congress did not get even one parliamentary seat in Delhi, AAP defeated Congress and BJP in the 2015 Assembly elections. In 2017, the BJP swept the municipal corporation elections. AAP and Congress were neck-and-neck with regard to vote share that year. With trends now showing that the Congress vote share in Delhi has increased, AAP should be worried about its future electoral prospects in the National Capital as assembly elections are near.
