Rohtak Lok Sabha constituency, known as a political capital of Jatland –Haryana, is witnessing an “electoral battle of prestige” with three-time MP Deepender Singh Hooda, locked in a direct contest with BJP’s nominee Arvind Sharma to retain the parliamentary seat that has remained Hooda family’s citadel.
Strong caste polarization is likely to dominate the outcome in this keenly watched poll battle between Congress’ Deepender Singh Hooda, son of former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a prominent Jat leader and BJP’s candidate, former MP Arvind Sharma, a prominent Brahmin leader.
Among other 18 candidates in the fray from Jat-dominated Rohtak seat include Jannayak Janta Party-Aam Aadmi Party’s alliance candidate Pradeep Deshwal, a Jat, INLD’s nominee Dharmveer Foji and Loktantra Suraksha Party-Bahujan Samaj Party’s joint candidate Kishan Lal Panchal, who comes from the Vishwakarma community, a backward class.
Rohtak, a major hub of the Jat electorate, was the lone parliamentary seat that had withstood the Modi wave and was won by the Congress out of 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana in 2014 elections.
Deepender, who has had an impressive run on the political pitch with three consecutive poll victories in Jat heartland of Rohtak in Haryana since his electoral debut in 2005, is seeking mandate for the fourth term with challenges of anti-incumbency factor coupled with saffron surge in the state.
The political analysts are of the view that Rohtak seat is a direct contest between Congress and BJP with other political parties unlikely to make any major impact on voters.
Interestingly, the Rohtak seat, which exemplifies dynasty politics, was won by late Ranbir Singh Hooda in 1952 and 1957. Later, his son two-time former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda won the seat four times and since 2005, Deepender has carried forward the family legacy.
The Congress candidate, however, is facing a tough contest this time in his family’s citadel with ruling BJP, primarily focusing on consolidation of non-Jat vote in its favor after the Jat quota agitation 2016 that has widened the divide between the Jat and non-Jat communities in the state.
The saffron party’s pick of a prominent Brahmin leader, Arvind Sharma in Jat-dominated Rohtak constituency clearly indicates towards party’s strategy to win over the non-Jat votes to wrest the Rohtak seat. A former Congressman, three-time MP Arvind Sharma had earlier this year joined the BJP and had in the past won the Jat dominated Sonepat Lok Sabha seat in 1996 as an independent candidate and later, won Karnal Lok Sabha seat in 2004 and 2009 on Congress’ ticket.
The BJP, which has been going full throttle to win Rohtak, is also banking on brand “Modi” and has also been reaching out to the leaders of caste-based organizations in the constituency besides holding an aggressive campaign led by Chief Minister Manohar Lal there. BJP’s support base largely comprises urban non-Jat voters and traders in Rohtak constituency.
Amid the concerns of polarization of votes on caste lines, the Congress’ candidate, Deepender is banking on the development works undertaken in last 15 years and the support that his father Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a prominent Jat leader enjoys in the community.
In 2014 general elections, Deepender was pitted against BJP’s nominee OP Dhankar (Cabinet Minister), a Jat candidate and had managed to register a hat-trick by a margin of more than 1.7 lakh votes in the constituency.
Later that year, the BJP had managed to win four out of nine assembly seats that form Rohtak parliamentary constituency in the State Assembly election, making inroads in the Jat stronghold of Rohtak.
In the past elections, the non-Jat polarization has worked in favour of the BJP in bypoll to Jind assembly segment and even in Rohtak assembly seat, which the party had won in Haryana Assembly polls 2014.
Noted sociologist, Jitender Prasad, a former professor of Sociology at Maharshi Dayanand University (MDU), Rohtak, while talking to The Pioneer, said, “As per the past electoral trends, the Jat voters have always polarized behind a favored Jat leader in elections. In Rohtak, Deepender will undoubtedly get the support of Jat community and is also likely to get voters from non-Jats, due to his good image and association with the constituency for a long time, he said.
The Jat candidates fielded by other political parties like JJP-AAP candidate Pradeep Deshwal are unlikely to divide Jat vote bank in the constituency as people seem to have this general perception of not dividing or infact, wasting their vote between two sides, JJP and INLD candidates after the split in Jat-centric party, INLD last year, he added.
Notably, Rohtak district was the epicenter of violent Jat reservation stir 2016, which is likely to caste shadow on the poll outcome in the constituency.
The quota agitation that killed over 30 people in the state had upset the Jat community, whose major demands including reservation still remain unfulfilled. Upset with the ruling BJP, the Jat outfits have already announced to boycott the BJP and vote in favor of other political parties in the polls.
Kulwant Singh Nehra, Assistant Professor, RBI chair at Chandigarh-based Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development (CRRID) said, “A very strong caste based polarization is in play in Haryana this election. But, Deepender still has a fair chance to emerge as a winner from Rohtak, probably with a very less margin this time,”
“In this direct contest between BJP and Congress, major share of non-Jat vote including Punjabis, Brahmins, Baniyas, Rajputs, Ahirs among others will go in favor of BJP. However, a section of Punjabi vote bank is also likely to favor Deepender due to his good reputation among all communities in Rohtak,” he added.
The Rohtak constituency has remained the focus of ruling BJP in the past five years with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party chief Amit Shah visiting the constituency on various occasions. The state BJP unit has also opened its fully-equipped war room-cum central office in Rohtak for elections.
To boost party’s campaign in the high-stakes poll battle, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has chosen May 10, the last day of campaigning of sixth phase to address a rally there while Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi will hold a roadshow in Rohtak on May 7.
