The Pulwama attack has put India in a frenzy, and rightly so. Everyone is crying for 'revenge', no matter how. Social media has become so active as never before and the mainstream media has not bothered to look away from ‘Pulwama'. TV channels are organizing round-the-clock talk shows on what happened and what should have happened and what should happen. The critics keep screaming ‘intelligence failure' without realising one bit that suicide explosion attacks have been very difficult to sniff or sense because of its very nature. Such plans are known to a miniscule number of madly dedicated individuals. Even the mighty USA sleuths and sniffers could not get the slightest smell of the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center. The IRA and the LTTE et al have carried out many such deadliest attacks without having been caught planning. The suicide guys are trained like that, with brains more washed than any tamable dog.
Striking back is not as easy as the ordinary masses imagine. First of all, it’s not so simple to blame a country like Pakistan squarely and attract international sympathy or provoke wrath in the people against the rogue nation. Prime Minister Imran Khan has to save his skin by being politically correct despite the fact that Pakistan has not for a day turned a democracy ever since its independence. It’s out and out a military state and the elected executive is only a puppet in the hands of army generals with regard to international affairs, tackling declared enemies and planning and determining warfare strategies. Except the judiciary to a limited extent, no other Constitutional institution has any say above the military in Pakistan.
Ever since the beginning, India has never been able to resolve any single contentious Indo-Pak issue conclusively. Wars have been fought and Pakistan subdued, but the joys of victory have not come India’s way. India was primarily instrumental in creating Bangladesh, but the new nation has never turned a blind ‘India admirer'. It keeps settling scores with India when it comes to its individual benefits.
The ground realities are very simple and glaring. The Kashmir issue has been brewing ever since the day Maharaja Hari Singh merged the Muslim-majority kingdom with India. Pakistan would never have dared venture against India if only Nehru had not been in a hurry to pacify rebellious factions with the help of Sheikh Abdullah and take over as Prime Minister of Union of India. Nehru and his team agreed to the special status condition which resulted in Article 370 that was only for a temporary period but turned impossible to abrogate later as situation became politically dangerous. This most terrible Article guarantees special status to J&K, restricting the Central Government’s power to only three subjects -- defence, foreign affairs and communication. The provision mandates that no act of the legislature coming under it can be challenged for violating the Constitution or any other law of the land. Similarly, an offshoot Article 35A came in 1952 by way of a Presidential order in 1954, by which only the permanent residents can settle permanently in the State, acquire immovable property, avail government jobs, scholarships and aid.
All this apart, insurgency in J&K has become easy with provocative baits hung by the agents of Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence, an outfit composed of military masterminds who decide what actions be taken by the elected political executive. If the political community acts smart, the military grabs power instantly through routinely-staged coups. Hence, Pakistanis have been rules more by the military than by civilian statesman. Bhuto was jailed and killed; Nawaz Shariff has been banished and later again jailed for corruption by the judiciary. The civilian regimes there come only to make money and go home because they know there is not much interesting or critical state activity they can indulge in. The military calls all big shots. This status will not change for another two to three generations, at least until the retirement of the 'crop' of army personnel recruited during and before General Zia-ul-Haq's presidency. Hence, the Indian government should not feel compelled to get into any kind of political negotiations until Islamabad demonstrates its 'reasonableness' and stops exporting terrorism.
There is no doubt of New Delhi's mishandling of the situation for a long time. It is fine to imprison some Hurriyat leaders as there is enough proof of seditious activities carried out under the guidance and financial support of Pakistan. It is a fact that most Kashmiris who want to live in peace and development, do not shed one drop of tear for any subversive forces. If there is no letup in Pakistan's export of terrorism across the border, there must be well-deliberated retaliation, both diplomatically and militarily.
Most significantly, it is the civilian mass that has turned suspicious of the armed and security forces across the valley mainly because young people Kashmir, who dream of a happy future at home, are constantly in trouble with the forces. Misguided due to want development and prospects of productive engagement, they are persuaded to believe Indian administration is out to exterminate anyone to annex the whole undivided Kashmir with the Indian Republic. The Kashmiri youths wrongly perceive the security forces as mindlessly ruthless, which has to be dispelled as soon as possible by persuasive methods and guaranteeing productive engagement of some kind to them. The day the youths realise the noble intentions of the Indian Government, nearly all the violent civil disobedience would vanish.
NA Prasad, a former Research and Analysis Wing officer, is of the view that India must recognise that it is not worth to nurture any pretensions of 'reasonableness' of the Pakistani establishment to negotiate a settlement other than full transfer of the Kashmir valley. Their policy will not change for another two to three generations, at least until the retirement of the 'crop' of army personnel recruited during and before General Zia-ul-Haq's presidency. Hence, the Indian Government should not feel compelled to get into any kind of political negotiations until Islamabad demonstrates its 'reasonableness' and stops exporting terrorism. The Kashmir problem can't be termed as a sole creation of Pakistan.
There is no doubt of New Delhi's mishandling of the situation for a long time. It is a border State and should be handled a little more delicately.
It is fine to imprison some Hurriyat leaders belonging to Syed Ali Shah Geelani's group as there is enough proof of seditious activities carried out under the guidance and financial support of Pakistan. But blaming Pakistan for every drop of an unpleasant stone better not be attributed to Pakistan as it is perpetually under turmoil and terror attacks and activities are routinely witnessed across the country. An ordinary Kashmiri would not shed one drop of tear for the elimination of any terrorist as most Kashmiris want to live in peace.
What most Indians do know but forget to link with terror is the fact of unconditional Chinese support to Pakistan for its own trade and larger economic interests. India is fast becoming an economic superpower, thereby turning a potential threat to China now enjoying so much of trading benefits due to its huge human population making labour exceptionally cheap. Thus, the Indian Government has to also look at the covert and mostly tacit support to Pakistan for disturbing activities across India so as to keep the latter away from international competition in trade and commerce.
Each action of Pakistan should be well documented and publicised before any retaliatory counteraction is taken. Consistent policy of talks with the Kashmiris and a stick for the Pakistanis would prove effective and productive in the long run. Containing China in Pakistan affairs and minimising civil casualties in Kashmir by sensitive planning of operations against the militants would yield fantastic results for the Indians.
Most importantly, the political will has to be truly strong to abrogate Articles 370 and 35A leading to mass entry of Hindus into the valley and ultimately balancing the Hindu-Muslim demographic mix, which will being down militancy and facilitate joyful annexation of POK with the Union of India.
(The writer is a core member of Transparency International, Odisha)
