A recent spate of terror activities in China and Russia has shaken the two countries off complacency and compelled them to seek global cooperation for tackling the menace of transnational terrorism
The strategy to whip up religious sentiments by harping on the issue of numerical preponderance of a particular community has helped certain terrorist organisations create and reinforce their base to indulge in proxy war with states across the globe. Central Asia is no exception to this.
The recent terror attacks in Scandinavian region, particularly in Stockholm and Istanbul, highlight the fact that the region continues to sit on a powder keg. These Central Asian nations face myriad challenges.
In addition to the question of economic aggrandisement and nation-building exercise, there have been a number of security related issues. According to recent reports, many individuals and non–state actors operating from the Central Asian Region (CAR) have been held responsible for exporting terrorism. Rampant use of battery improvised devices, knives and cars in individual terror attacks, massacring foreign tourists and hostage takings have been some recent tactics adopted by terrorists operating from Turkey, Norway, Sweden and Uzbekistan. Recently there were attempts to export terrorism from Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. On account of rapid rise in terror threats, Moscow recognised the need to set up Troika alliance in the past.
The need for a common security apparatus has exposed Central Asia’s long painful process of institution building. The recent influx of illegal migrants and spate of terrorist activities in China and Russia have shaken them off complacency and compelled them to seek cooperation for tackling the menace of transnational terrorism.
The relatively calm profile of CAR took a beating when Democratic Party, the Rastokhez Front and Islamic Revivalist Party organised the anti-government activities in Tajikistan during May 1991. This exposed simmering discontent among Muslim communities and created background for psychological ambience for the growth of Islamic militancy in the region. Besides, spate of activities in Moscow-based Islamic Renaissance Party gave a fresh impetus to Islamist groups across the entire CAR.
The influx of refugees from disturbed areas of Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Iraq and Syria has added a new dimension to the existing problem. Although Russia has always acknowledged the economic and political significance of the region, its policies towards locals have been not been consistent as desired by these groups. Its policies wavered in attempts to persuade national minorities to acquiesce to or assimilate into the Russian culture.
While there is abundance of oil, natural gas resources, minerals, cotton, textile commodity in the CAR, the region still has to catch up with advanced countries with regard to job facilities, housing, consumer commodities and education.
Some critiques hold lack of economic and political will responsible for the vulnerability of the region. The people in CAR are expecting governments to accelerate plan formulations and undertake prompt measures for improving access to the means of production, economic opportunities such as proper usage of natural resources, income and employability and developing the capability of locals to produce more.
Besides, the governments in this region need to cooperate and coordinate with regard to any security challenge posed by terrorists. Since service sector is quite impressive in CAR, particularly in Kazakhstan amounting for more than 50 per cent of the total GDP, the key to economic transformation lies in integrating it further.
The disgruntled groups have constantly expressed their dissatisfaction, many times violently. Thus, riots and bomb blasts occur at regular intermissions. The brands of distraught people have gained tremendous support from refugees who have immigrated to escape ethnic strife in neighbouring countries.
Fundamentalists have acquired sophisticated arms, training and developed a close network with rogue nations around the world.
With the disintegration of the Soviet Union, then Communist leader Islam Karimov formed his Government in Uzbekistan and Sepermurad Niyazov became the President of Turkmenistan. Both these Governments were authoritative in nature and very unresponsive to the dissatisfied groups. As a result many splinters emerged within groups.
The fundamentalist Islamic factions have often lashed out at the governments in CAR. Consequently the governments expressed their concern about the separatist forces and foresaw the necessity of using force to keep the lid on the ethnic cauldron.
Although it is difficult to predict what new ideas and strategies could help CAR to improve economic situation and develop security capabilities, it is evident that to a large extent economic activities in the coming years will be influenced by the region’s capability to fight inflation and develop anti-terrorist mechanism.
Central Asia is of immense value to the world because of its strategic location and very rich oil resources. The US has already declared CAR as very crucial region for strategic purpose. In addition to the economic importance it attaches to the region, the US is apparently keen on checking the rise of Islamic militancy and Russian influence. The growing mistrust between Moscow and Washington for their respective influence in CAR has made the entire region a playground for power game. China has already started spreading its wings all over the region in order to ensure its rising hegemony. For Afghanistan, Turkey, Pakistan and Iran, the region has great potential for economic and cultural exchanges. The most important link is the Islamic solidarity which is lately getting culminated in the form of sponsored agents of terror. Most European countries are concerned and worried about the possibility of increasing Muslim fundamentalism in the region.
If unchecked, fundamentalism nurturing militancy can pose serious challenges to the neighbouring countries. This is evident from the chaos in Syria and disturbances in Afghanistan. On the other hand, China is worried about the presence of Uyghur Muslim ethnic group in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. There are roughly about 7.32 million Uyghurs in Xinjiang province of China. Recently there has been upsurge in the militant activities of Uyghur in Xinjiang.
The interest of the Muslim countries in the region is not limited to commerce alone. They want to influence the CAR in Islamic terms. Although more articulate and accurate efforts by intelligence and security agencies can provide more information about such groups of the region, there is still a confusion whether such mechanism is successful in dealing with these terrorists who are driven by misinterpretation of the religion. In such a situation the Troika must ensure that the fundamentalists do not operate from the bases in safe heavens of rogue countries. The best way perhaps would be to identify the areas of national and regional resilience and develop capabilities domestically and externally for combating terrorism.
Thus apart from monitoring the crucial issues of political stability and economic development of the region, the Central Asian countries should undertake issues related to strategic partnership to handle the rising tide of international monster.
(Author is Chandigarh-based Professor of Political Science and an expert on strategic affairs)
