While the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) is yet to give their assent to the bid submitted by Kalrock Capital and Murari Jalan for Jet Airways, the fact that the lenders voted for the deal means that approvals from NCLT and other government authorities might come soon. Sanjay Mandavia, a former Jet Airways pilot who had the losing bid has congratulated the winners although media reports have emerged where he claims that his plan was better. However, submitting a winning bid for whatever assets remain of the once storied airline, there is no guarantee that the airline will fly again. The winning bidders have promised lenders not just some money, although the banks will take a massive haircut on their advances to Jet Airways but also some equity.

How the winning bidders will get Jet Airways flying again is however a mystery and while they will come up with more concrete plans in the coming weeks, there has been one massive change in the eighteen months since Jet Airways’ collapse, the Coronavirus and the subsequent collapse in air travel. At the same time, assuming that ‘brand loyalty’ remains towards Jet Airways and old flyers will come streaming back to the airline should not be made. Jet’s most loyalty high-tier passengers on major metropolitan routes have all switched their loyalties over to Vistara, if they still care about service, but increasingly IndiGo, because the behemoth of Indian skies has built a reputation for reliability.

Jet Airways did not even control their frequent flyer program, which has now been rebranded ‘InterMiles’, the high-end passenger data possibly does not even reside with the airline. Even more importantly, Jet’s demise in 2019 was preceded by the airline losing hundreds of large corporate deals, these massive deals for thousands of seats annually injected a lot of money into the operations. Corporates will wait for Jet Airways 2.0 to establish themselves before even considering coming back. With most of India’s top 500 companies having huge contracts with IndiGo whose network and frequency means that it will be increasingly unlikely for them to be weaned off.

No large airline in the world, and Jet was a large airline with almost 140 aircraft in its fleet at the peak, has recovered from bankruptcy after closing operations. And not just in aviation, where the revival of iconic brands like Pan Am have failed, resurrecting brands, particularly service brands is not easy. It might have worked in a situation where air travel was still growing, but air travel has taken a massive tumble during the past few months and even as things slowly start getting back to normal, passenger numbers are down massively. In September 2020, the number of daily departures stood at 1,311 daily, less than half the 2,874 departures in September 2019 and load factors, while rising over the past few months, was still below two-thirds. After the collapse of Jet Airways last year, the remaining airlines had made hay as planes ran full and fares skyrocketed. Now, it appears that the financial situation at most Indian airlines with the exception of IndiGo is dire, and there is a good chance that one, maybe even two airlines might not survive the pandemic.

That said, there are some positives for the new owners of Jet Airways. The collapse in passenger demand is not localised to India and is a worldwide issue, as a result there are hundreds of relatively young aircraft parked on the ground, not even including the 500 or so Boeing 737 MAX planes that were grounded before the pandemic. It is unlikely that air travel will recover for another 18-24 months even if a vaccine is approved tomorrow. So the new owners of the airline will be able to find some good lease deals on aircraft. At the same time, Jet Airways, if it indeed restarts, will also be able to find slots at crowded airports like Delhi and Mumbai because demand is heavily down. Of course, this depends on the ability of the new management to convince airports and the Ministry that they mean business. Landing and take-off slots belong to the public just like telecom airwaves and by buying Jet Airways’ assets it does not mean that old slots can be magically restored. But if Jet Airways gets off the ground soon, they might be able to pick up some prime slots, like the airline once had in Mumbai.

It may not be a bad idea for Jet Airways 2.0 to begin as a more regional-focussed carrier as the airlines collapse removed service to several small cities, particularly from Mumbai and rivals have not really plugged those gaps, for example, Jet Airways had a strong network of flights between Mumbai and several medium-sized towns in Gujarat and Maharashtra.

 Alternatively, Jet owns a few long-haul planes, in fact they sold their building in Bandra-Kurla Complex to buy out six Boeing 777’s and possibly the rise of non-stop travel post-pandemic could see them transform into a boutique international airline. Going up against IndiGo’s reach on most sectors as well as Vistara’s service standards will not be easy and as sentimental as some passengers might be about the brand, that will not be enough to fill the planes or make a profit. But one hopes for the best.