Even before the peace talks began, the Taliban have been working hard to project themselves as a pan-Afghan identity. However, this expedient tactic is unlikely to offer sizeable dividends to them as their brutality and antipathy towards the Afghan minorities have been entrenched in the memory of the persecuted. Nevertheless, if they come to power, India should accept them as a legitimate Afghan Government
The intra-Afghan dialogue going on in Qatar is a concerted effort to chart a new course of peace and tranquility in Afghanistan, torn apart by decades of occupation and civil war.
As the Taliban have been waging war to regain power by brutal means, it is important in this situation to look at the critical roles played by Pakistan and America in this long-- drawn Afghan quagmire.
Interestingly, Pakistan a country that was reprimanded by US President Donald Trump in 2018 for its “lies and deceit” joined as the third key player in the historic US-Taliban peace talks. This has even despite Washington cutting security assistance to Islamabad.
Since the signing of the peace deal in February 2020 amid the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, Pakistan’s fortune has started changing. Some strategic experts say the Imran Khan Government is trying to shed its image of a state associated with terror and terror financing. Pakistan has been criticised by world leaders for not uprooting anti-India terror forces on its soil.
As Pakistan has involved itself in the Afghan peace talks, it is vital for New Delhi to approach the Afghan dilemma afresh. Taliban is now in a position of strength. New Delhi, Islamabad and Washington need to tackle the monster very cautiously. For the Ghani regime, the durability of peace depends on limiting Taliban’s influence in small pockets. Allowing the Taliban to regroup for seeking a role larger than its usual strength would herald full-scale disaster to Kabul.
Further, the arrival of the Taliban cadre to the heart of Afghan politics once again might jeopardise the democratic institution building taken up by the previous Karzai regime and the current establishment in the country.
Is there any hope that there would be lasting peace in Afghanistan? It seems unlikely. Resting on the most unpredictable Taliban might be another misstep in the lexicon of peace building in Afghanistan. However, the resilience demonstrated by the group this time is extraordinary. They are working hard to project themselves as a pan-Afghan identity. However, this expedient tactic would not offer sizeable dividends to them as their brutality and antipathy towards the Afghan minorities like the Hazras and Sikhs are entrenched in the memory of the persecuted.
Hence, the enormity of challenges faced by the current Ghani regime is more than a reality. Practically speaking, the US support in the form of aid, advice and supervision must continue. Whether Trump or Biden, whoever comes to Washington in January, without a second thought, America must back any democratic regime that comes to Kabul. Else the hope of building a civil society and grassroot democratic institutions would be completely destroyed.
It is unlikely that Pakistan will learn from its past mistakes of aiding and abetting terrrorism. No one knows how long the Imran Government can survive. As long as the Pakistan Army calls the shots, no democratic leader or regime would have a free hand in political affairs of the country. And for sure, a country like Pakistan can best be safeguarded only by the Army. It’s a notion deeply entrenched in power corridors of the country and among the public.
Its people have rarely had the experience of governed by strong civilian leaders in the history, except one like late Benazir Bhutto. She ruled Pakistan during a tumultuous time. But then till her assassination in 2007, she was always regarded by the country’s military a “security threat” simply because she was working hard to promote peace in South Asia and voicing for a broad-based Government in Afghanistan.
It is fair to say military in Pakistan is an omnipotent institution. Its influence in politics is here to stay. So whatever is convenient to it, accordingly, the future roadmap of Pakistan will be drawn. Afghanistan has always been viewed as a playing ground and a zone of influence by the Pakistani Army. Thus its proxies, rather than Islamabad’s, have a major say in Kabul for years. Whenever this equation does not match, such regimes in Kabul find it too difficult to sustain. Experience says Pakistan never wants a strong Indian presence in Afghanistan. Considering its traditional rivalry with India, Islamabad would not allow Delhi to be in good terms with Kabul. Though India’s continued outreach to Afghanistan has mostly been received positively, the complex power structures in that country has hardly left any role for New Delhi, except as an aid partner.
The root cause for this dilemma is no other than Pakistan, and to some extent the US. Washington knows pretty well that without taking Islamabad into confidence, peace in Afghanistan would not last long.
Currently, the Modi Government is advocating that the talks must be Afghan owned and Afghan led. This is fine. But then, will Delhi be ready to forge a deal with the Taliban if it comes back to power? This must be made clear to the world that Delhi would be forging a new normal with the Taliban if it forms a legitimate Government in Afghanistan. Can anyone think that Taliban will have trust in the democratic process? Will it be ready to contest elections in case it takes place?
What will happen if its candidates are outright rejected by the common people? The Taliban is an experienced player. Its Government from 2001 to 2006 led by Mullah Omar was barely recognised by one or two countries around the world. Afterwards, the Taliban regime tasted defeat from the powerful force led by the US and its allies.
Since then, Afghanistan is virtually under the occupation of NATO forces even though democratically elected Governments have reinforced a new sense of security and peace in the country.
In the last two decades, the way the Taliban has intervened in several pockets of the country has demonstrated how brutal it could be. Its complete disregard for basic rights, particularly of the minorities, children and women, have only brought fear and darkness to the civilians in Afghanistan.
In such circumstances, the only possibility for the Taliban is to charter a new peace course to be acceptable as a Afghan government. It could be a smart power-sharing deal that may make the group a partner in the legitimate Government of the country. Then the question comes, will these radicals be accepted by the democratically elected leaders? Will there be a working relationship among them that could survive for some time? Will these warlords simply accept a rule-based order? It all looks topsy-turvy.
They may not be acceptable by either Ghani or any other popular leaders in the country. Accepting them is simply a big blot on the fragile democratic set-up of the country. Neither would they accept a system that offers an order wherein one needs to be responsible and delivering goods to the people. So the road ahead in Afghanistan is murky.
To conclude, the Taliban is to be handled carefully. It’s good that they are back to a peace table. Pakistan has finally realised that its willingness to back the peace process may mean a lot to the making of peace in its neighborhood. The US role is inseparable from a durable peace process in Afghanistan. Other critical players such as India, China and Russia need to see that they are all engaged in any peace deal that brings stability to a legitimate government in Kabul.
When the Taliban representatives and the delegates of the Ghani Government meet in Doha, they would find it hard to resolve many critical issues. The two parties are showing visions that could hardly meet at any point, particularly in regard to how Afghanistan would be governed in future. Many hardline Taliban commanders demand that Ghani be replaced and an interim government should come to Kabul.
Many of these militants are not ready to work with the Ghani Government. They even view the Ghani Government as not a legitimate representative of the Afghan people. They all have referred Ghani as a puppet. How will they work with such a leader now?
Way back in June, Ghani said during a virtual conference: “I serve at will of the Afghan people, not to the will of the Taliban.” Such conflicting statements from both the Taliban and Ghani might put hurdle in the ongoing intra-Afghan talk. Ghani also said any discussion of an interim government is premature. He is absolutely right as there are many other critical issues to be sorted out with the Taliban. Only, time will tell us, what could unfold for the war-ravaged Afghanistan.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)
