Ball is in China’s court

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Ball is in China’s court

Monday, 06 July 2020 | Anil Gupta

Ball is in China’s court

After the June 15 drubbing, if Beijing wants to test the water further and is willing to go to war, New Delhi is prepared and determined not to budge

The third Corps Commander-level talks held on the Indian side at Chuhsul to resolve the border stand-off with China also ended without yielding any tangible result. Though nothing substantial was expected at the military-level talks, yet the hopes of the “de-escalation” process commencing were being entertained, but to no avail. In fact, rather than de-escalating, the forces of both the nations have begun “posturing.” Analysts feel this may result in a long-drawn haul till the winter.

 India and China have a lot of history together and signed five agreements between 1993-2013 to maintain peace and tranquility on the borders. The aim was to avoid war between the two nations. No doubt, the agreements have succeeded in their purpose but at what cost?  A close scrutiny would reveal that we bought peace at the cost of our national sovereignty.  While China continued unabated with its strategy of “walk in at will” to alter status quo and continued its salami-slicing technique to strengthen its territorial claims and expansionist intent, we failed to respond adequately and overlooked it under the notion of a varying perception of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In fact, the first cardinal mistake was done in accepting the unresolved border as a LAC. That, too, without exchange of any marked maps. It obviously suited the evil intentions of China but we failed to read between the lines.

The Chinese on the other hand were creeping forward to the areas they believed to be theirs with no regard to the Indian claims. The Group of Ministers in 2001 had suggested construction of roads in border areas for better connectivity and asserting our claims. Even though road-building work began soon after, the network was not improved significantly till 2014.

While China developed not only the road network but also the allied military infrastructure to abet its war fighting potential all along the LAC, including extension of railway lines, oil pipelines and airfields apart from housing and storage facilities, we totally neglected our borders with China. As a result, China succeeded in creating a huge asymmetry along the entire LAC giving it the advantage of controlling the LAC and ensuring rapid build-up in case of hostilities. China is now exploiting this advantage and preventing us from taking measures to minimise the asymmetry.

China may even be preparing to convert the LAC to the Line of Control (LoC) because of the terrain advantage it enjoys. Though Indian troops are better trained and acclimatised to fight at such altitudes, it would be a logistics nightmare to maintain the troops at those heights if the posturing continues beyond winter. The Indian Army is mentally and physically prepared for this but will the Chinese soldiers be able to withstand the harshness of weather is a question for the Chinese to ponder. Meanwhile, the Indian Army should induct more locals. Ladakhis are not only hardy but also know the terrain well, especially when covered with snow.

Ladakh Scouts should not be viewed merely as an extension of an infantry battalion but be employed as “Alpine” troops, using their advantage of being locals and trained in special skills like skiing, mountaineering and the ability to live off the land. As in the “home and hearth” concept, they should remain permanently deployed in areas close to their homes and not be subjected to usual transfers like infantry battalions.

Over the years, China also built new villages and habitation centres close to the LAC to settle the civil population there. However, it objected vehemently to any construction or development related activities in the villages situated on the LAC on our side. However, in 2016 and 2018, India continued with construction of a lift canal in Demchok and construction of the road north of the Pangong Tso right up to Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO).

While the Chinese continued to defy the provisions of the peace agreements at will, we did not object strongly or seek review of the agreements to prevent repeated Chinese incursions. We remained happy by adding provisions to avoid clashes but ignored the central issue of wilful salami-slicing of our territory, resulting in reduction of grazing grounds and pastures for our inhabitants in the border areas. Every time the Chinese withdrew, they had a demand, to which we submitted meekly. This emboldened the Chinese next time and continued till India established a new normal of challenging the Chinese at Galwan this time.

The Chinese have perfected the art of “grab first and negotiate” but before negotiating create a situation of hopelessness for the adversary so that it is left with no option but to submit to the Chinese terms. However, the Chinese leadership has failed to do it this time and is irked by India’s firmness and resolve.

The Chinese plan to “teach India a lesson” also met its Waterloo at the icy heights of Galwan on June 15 night when the Indian Army gave them a major drubbing. As a result the morale of Chinese soldiers is so low that they are being taught Unarmed Combat.

It is this loss of face, both domestically and globally, that is compelling China to delay the de-escalation. Any hurried withdrawal of forces will further sully the Chinese image. Gradual, delayed and un-noticed withdrawal suits the Chinese game plan. If China wants to test the water further and is willing to go to war, India is prepared and is determined not to budge.

In a hard-hitting article titled New twist in dispute with China. Never ignore India’s strategic interests, General VP Malik, former Chief of Army Staff, states, “It is becoming obvious that on India-China boundary discussions, India seems to have given up its claim to Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, Shaksgam and Aksai Chin; China has knocked off almost the whole of the Western sector boundary; and by reducing nearly 1,600 km from its definition of border with India and questioning Indian sovereignty over Jammu & Kashmir, it has added a new twist to the India-China boundary dispute.” He further says, “India, on the other hand, is perceived as a soft state. Our leaders and governments, more often than not, have lacked strategic thinking. There is a sense of self-righteousness and singular faith in words without looking for underlying falsehoods and incompetence.” The last line is truly prophetic. India somehow had kept quiet for several decades on the Aksai Chin and Shaksgam, which encouraged China to move up.

Now that India has constructed a road up to DBO and operationalised/constructed airfields in the region, China is annoyed. China is surprised as to how India is now demanding Aksai Chin as was clear in the Home Minister’s statement in the Parliament. India’s new posturing at political and diplomatic levels has rattled China, which, therefore, decided to “teach India a lesson” militarily. What further surprised China was India’s response to military aggressiveness. India matched China brick to brick and responded to its military posturing in equal measure.

The recent news of Pakistan moving two divisions worth forces opposite Northern Ladakh in Gilgit-Baltistan is yet another attempt by China to coerce the Indian leadership by posing a threat of a two-front war. The reported resurrection of Al Badr, a defunct terrorist outfit, is also part of the same ploy. But India is determined and prepared to meet the challenge.

China has to accept the blame for its current misadventure in Ladakh. Instead of doing that, it continues to blame the Indian Army and harp about the growing Indo-American bonhomie for the deterioration in Sino-Indian relations. In a recent article published in its mouthpiece Global Times, it says, “The US, in particular, is seducing India to counterbalance China and the concept of Indo-Pacific strategy is turning into a reality. For quite a number of Indian elite, they are more inclined to work with the West strategically. They believe that by joining the US camp to contain China, they are now a world power on equal footing.” It’s an attempt to warn India to stay away from the US without realising that India reserves the option of maintaining strategic autonomy. But if needed New Delhi would not hesitate to seek assistance, not necessarily military, from other friends as well. The Chinese arrogance is also evident in the same article. “No matter from history or reality, elements of India’s politics and society are fertile for growing anti-China sentiments. It is understandable that India views the 1962 Sino-Indian war as a historic humiliation. But it would be dangerous if New Delhi resents Beijing and launches anti-China waves from national education and strategic levels,” writes the Global Times.

India wants to resolve all disputes through peaceful bilateral negotiations but would resist every attempt to challenge its sovereignty. India would prefer China to honour various border agreements signed by it to maintain peace and tranquility and also revisit or modify them if needed. But if China wants war, let it be. India will not relent. The ball is entirely in China’s court.

(The author is a Jammu-based veteran, political commentator, columnist, security and strategic analyst.)

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