China provokes, again

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China provokes, again

Wednesday, 17 June 2020 | Pioneer

China provokes, again

Colonel and two soldiers killed in Ladakh assault amid talks; India must scale up diplomacy now and avoid another front

It is not just the violent face-off between Indian and Chinese troops at Ladakh, the first since 1975 and one where both sides lost troops, that is worrisome but the gruesome nature of it and the relentless baiting and provocation by our eastern neighbour. Apparently, no firearms were shot during the fight on the Indian side as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) used stones and batons to literally bludgeon each other, an indication of the ferocity of the aggressor. An Indian colonel and two soldiers were killed while the Chinese reportedly lost five of their own during a massive escalation at Galwan Valley. And coming as it does when official level efforts are on to simmer down tension in the middle of a pandemic that has not spared either nation, it clearly shows some kind of extreme desperation on the Chinese side than just browbeating India in the neighbourhood. It clearly wants its way and some territory that is not happening through the talks. Enough to stage a limited incursion at the cost of its own men and resources. For more than six weeks, soldiers from both sides have been engaged in eyeball-to-eyeball manoeuvres at two places along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the 3,488 km de facto boundary between India and China. The confrontation took place at Galwan river, which was one of the early triggers of the 1962 India-China war, and at the Pangong Tso, parts of which have been claimed by both. But these are quite distant from the LAC and have barely caused any flare-ups except at the diplomatic levels. So this is undoubtedly extreme provocation. Yes, China has been uncomfortable about the way India has gone about neutralising its strategic edge in the region ever since the trifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir, conversion of Ladakh into a Union Territory and strengthening border roads that can help us replenish troop supplies and movement like never before. But considering the PLA reports directly to the Communist Party of China (CPC) headed by President Xi Jinping, one wonders whether this muscle-flexing is about convincing a home audience on its capability to protect them from an increasingly hostile world. Post Wuhan, and now with a new uncontrollable virus surge in Beijing, Xi has been under immense pressure for his handling of the crisis. The West, tired of the ceaseless lies about the contagion, is pulling out its investment and offices out of China as millions of young people are jobless with millions more waiting in the wings as graduates. The Chinese leadership is finding out ways and means of engaging a relatively qualified generation, lest it becomes frustrated and takes to the streets. For years, it has promised a better life in exchange for a lack of political freedom and now that currency isn’t holding. Besides, the world is no longer in awe of the Chinese market and though dependent on sourcing, is planning rearguard action to stop this over the next decade. At the same time, heaving down on a beleaguered India, whose economy is plunging to unknown depths, yet which has the West’s favour now for future business, would seem like an easy ploy to divert attention and make an example of. Besides, India has quite a bit of Chinese investment to be overtly militarist, and ironically Great Wall Motors inked a massive deal with the Maharashtra Government despite the attack. But India is no more a soft target though Xi seems to be repeating Doklam to appear invincible before the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Process (CPCC) begins. Doklam, too, had happened before such a session. India should scale up diplomatic intervention to restore status quo ante and publicise this effort globally, knowing full well that both nations cannot afford another front during the pandemic war.

Will that tame Chinese exasperation? With the Modi Government committing itself to improving connectivity by 2022, about 66 key roads will be skirting the Chinese border. One of these roads is near the Galwan valley that connects to Daulat Beg Oldi air base. This is what has been upsetting the PLA, which realising its edge in the region is gradually being blunted, is wary of Indian ambitions in the Aksai Chin. At the same time, if China rakes up the long Himalayan boundaries to rein us in, we should also pose a counter-weight by tying up with Southeast Asian nations and build a pressure against Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea. India should discuss shared threats in the Indian Ocean region with Vietnam, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia and Malaysia. Diplomatically, we could circle China by galvanising the threat perception from it in the region and building a security alliance. India can do this without appearing too aggressive or going beyond the rulebook. In fact, we must be prepared for more Chinese hostilities as we build self-sufficiencies. India has stalled it from ambushing our economy by amending its foreign direct investment (FDI) rules to mandate Government approval for all investments from “border” countries. We cannot ignore its manufacturing heft for now but China will not sit easy either with the discomfort over 5G trials and a future shrinkage of its market in India.

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