As the Kejriwal Government has redeemed its promises of freebies, it has already got certain credibility among the Delhi voters, most of whom comprise the poor and the lower middle class for whom financial concerns are paramount. However, the vote swing also hinges on how Kejriwal’s strategic silence on the anti-CAA protest is perceived by the Muslim voters
The pretext (Holocaust) for the creation of the Zionist regime (Israel) is false. It is a lie based on a mythical claim,” so had proffered Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the then President of Iran, about ten years ago. To bolster his constructed narrative, global experts were invited to a seminar to enlighten an “august” symposium on the subject and to attest to the veracity of Ahmadinejad’s protestation, much to the elation of the gathering. Ironically, the conference ensured that none of the Holocaust survivors attended the assembly, neither as a resource person nor as a member of the audience.
Cut back to India, there has been a new bid to create a narrative to discredit the historical facts about the ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Pandits, with stories cropping up about their mass migration from their homeland “at their will”. These stories started appearing soon after some eminent Kashmiri Pandits narrated their agony last month on the 30th anniversary of the tragedy, with a few experiencing the vicarious fear of the 1989-1990 from the similar “azadi” slogans of the anti-Citizenship (Amendment) Act protesters.
These two examples are not the work of futile efforts; they itch to weave suitable narratives that can culminate in creating new perceptions at the appropriate time. As perception drives passion stronger than facts, vested interests subtly indulge in management of the public perception. Seen in this perspective, electoral politics is more about war of perceptions which keep on changing.
Therefore, the Government’s firm stance on the CAA, and the “democratic” protests against the Act and the proposed NRC (National Register of Citizens) are feeding two competing perceptions. In the electoral battle for Delhi, the anti-CAA protest in Shaheen Bagh, some say, has left Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) at its wits’ end. Those who claim so believe that any statement on the Shaheen Bagh protest is pregnant with risks of being seen on one or the other side of the political binary. Perhaps, the AAP too considers it safe to stay clear of the anti-CAA protest, fearing it to be a polarising topic. The view posits the existence of two preconceived dangers: first, there is a communal streak among the Hindu voters of Delhi; second, the freebies do not hold paramount importance even for the poor and the lower middle class.
Though there is no foolproof mechanism to discern how voters’ preference for a party or a candidate is shaped at the time of voting, prevailing perceptions and the analysis of the last three elections in the national Capital can throw light on the outcome of the February 8 Assembly elections. In the December 4, 2013, Delhi Assembly polls, the AAP rode on the Anna Hazare-led anti-graft movement and cashed in on the pent-up frustration among the common man against the alleged corruption under the Congress Government, both at the Centre and Delhi. The AAP offered a new brand of “clean” politics, and the idea was received warmly by the voters. Five months later in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the voters chose Narendra Modi as a “strong” Prime Minister after the BJP-led NDA was successful in managing a public perception about “PM” Manmohan Singh being a rubber stamp sitting on a corrupt Government. In Delhi, all the seven seats were bagged by the BJP as perception about the need for a strong PM dominated all other concerns. However, seven months later in 2015, voters’ preference changed again and they picked up Kejriwal as the Chief Minister of Delhi with a brute majority.
A national election and an Assembly poll present different aspirations in the minds of the voters as they are now intelligent enough to distinguish the defined scope of the local and national governments. Moreover, the AAP Government has already redeemed its poll promises of freebies. When even a hike in onion prices blights the prospects of a political party, few among the Delhi voters, most of whom comprise the poor and the lower middle class, can afford to forego Rs 2,000-Rs 3,000 freebies every month. For only a small number of the voters — affluent class among non-Muslims — the national issues like CAA and NRC may hold more importance for voting purpose.
Also, as the challenger BJP has angered the Muslims with the CAA, the community is likely to vote en masse for the AAP as the Congress, with its subdued poll campaigning, has either given up the hope of regaining ground in Delhi or has tacitly lying low to make its vote swing in favour of the AAP to defeat its arch national rival BJP.
Therefore, the AAP seems to have a bright chance to retain power in Delhi, but its electoral prospects also depend on the success of its strategic political postures in order to reinforce the desired public perception about the paramountcy of “freebies”. More so, because the AAP has got formidable challenges from the convinced ideologists spreading the word of correcting historical injustice and providing succour to the persecuted non-Muslim minorities in the neighbouring Islamic countries.
In such a tense atmosphere, considering the firing incidents on anti-CAA protesters in Jamia and Shaheen Bagh on January 30 and February 1 respectively, the perception among the Muslim voters about Kejriwal’s strategic silence on anti-CAA protests will also determine the poll outcome.
(The writer is Associate Editor & News Editor, The Pioneer)
