The IATA is estimating that over 25 million aviation sector jobs could be lost globally as a result of the pandemic

It was the golden age of aviation when flights connected cities like Delhi to the unlikeliest of places on the planet. Thanks to the latest generation of fuel-efficient aircraft with smaller passenger loads as well as travellers, who were keen to explore new destinations, cities across the world saw air travel explode over the past decade. But the spread of COVID-19 pandemic has brought all this to a screeching halt. In fact, had growth come to a standstill, the sector would have dealt with it. But what has happened now as a result of the pandemic is even worse. As nations across the world shut both their external and internal borders, passenger flights have come to a virtual standstill. With only vital cargo flights and the occasional repatriation ones operating, commercial air travel has declined, almost overnight, by over three quarters. This is a sort of shock that the aviation industry will find it difficult to recover from. A report by the airline industry body, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has estimated that airlines across the world will have to lay off over 25 million people if Governments do not intervene, adding that about a third of 2.7 million direct jobs in the airline sector had either been lost or were furloughed. The industry’s representative body also said that airline finances were so fragile, they could not afford to refund customers. Other reports have come out estimating that the industry will lose upwards of $35 billion this year. All such reports leave little doubt that when the world does emerge from the crisis, global aviation will not be the same again. That said, with much air travel being dependent on passenger confidence and that likely to remain extremely low in the aftermath of the pandemic, passenger numbers could take two-three years to recover. And that is if the world is not tipped into a recession, which could make the entire decade a lost one for the industry.

In India, not only have airlines announced pay cuts across the board, stories are emerging that some have furloughed their latest hires, leaving hundreds of newly-hired cabin attendants stuck far from home and without money. All thanks to the lockdown, they are unable to get back home. The aviation sector had been a rare beacon of hope for the Indian economy, creating both jobs and wealth.  Yet, as of today, airlines are as clueless as an average Indian as to when the lockdown will be lifted and when they can get flying again. With restrictions on travel likely and several nations unlikely to open up their borders until May at the earliest, getting even a limited schedule going might be extremely complicated with the current staff numbers. There are likely to be hundreds of job losses at airlines and some suspect that one or even two firms in India might not survive the crisis. But the knock-on impact to the economy and jobs will not be restricted to the airlines alone. Across the world, almost a quarter of application-based taxi services such as Uber and Ola survive on airport pick-ups and drop-offs. A decline in airport traffic, therefore, will hit that sector, too. Even at airports, lower passenger numbers will mean less retail and security staff. The indirect job losses in the country alone can be in millions. And with no social security net, this will put huge economic pressure on families. The Government will not be able to do much to influence the sentiment on the flying Indian public and across the world. But it should not leave the millions of those unemployed, directly or indirectly, in the lurch.