Modi’s Ladakh move

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Modi’s Ladakh move

Monday, 06 July 2020 | Pioneer

Modi’s Ladakh move

By touring frontline posts and calling out China’s expansionism, PM tries to cover up his early remarks, says India means business

For a man who crafts his moves in such a manner that they appear the only truth that obfuscates others, Prime Minister Narendra Modi did slip up on the narrative that he sought to build on the Chinese ingress in Ladakh. Worse, he completely denied that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had ever entered our territory. A costly error considering he made this claim at an all-party meeting even as contrary versions came from his own office, the MEA and satellite images. So he had to do something dramatic to wrest his credibility, something which had been emaciated badly by the Chinese with whom he stepped up bilateral engagements only to make the fatal flaw that somebody he likes to disown frequently did — Jawaharlal Nehru. Quitting the Chinese Twitter, Weibo, was hardly resonant. So he surprised everybody and definitely spooked the Chinese, too, by flying into Ladakh, visiting a forward position, encouraging frontier soldiers and significantly calling out Beijing’s expansionism. He abandoned the diplomacy of caution and underplaying, one that had so far left quite a bit of legroom for both India and China to negotiate in private, and came much closer to calling a spade a spade. It was also his most reactive gesture to domestic criticism, from opinion makers of all shades wondering whether our nationalism and militarism were good enough against Pakistan, itself a pawn in China’s game, while we were pusillanimous about the latter. And, of course, to silence Rahul Gandhi, who has consistently been attacked for the follies of his great grandfather in fostering Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai and who accused Modi of surrendering our territorial integrity to Chinese suzerainty. Internationally, too, he is indicating he is ready to make common cause with other nations against China. As the PM with the most number of visits to Beijing and summitry with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he has only helped China get a deeper access to our markets while fuelling its territorial ambitions and heightening its asymmetrical equation. One that has allowed China to scoff at our boycott of its goods as inconsequential. Modi certainly wouldn’t like to be remembered for Doklam and the Ladakh standoffs. No matter what the rhetoric on de-escalation, both episodes have shown that while the PLA retreats a few steps, it fortifies just beyond the lines or asks for territories in return. By choosing to visit Ladakh when the disengagement talks between India and China are still on, Modi has conveyed that he wouldn’t yield to territorial pressure or tradeoffs. And our soldiers would not back down from taking on the PLA if provoked. Modi’s big signal is that the “face-off vs trade-off” formula is out and no territory will be conceded to buy peace. Or that claimed positions in Aksai Chin and PoK will never be legitimised. Nor will India shift its positions or stop developing its border infrastructure. For some time now, the local Army commands have been insisting that cowering down had not given India any advantage and Modi seems to be coming round to the view that it is high time we stand up to the Chinese wherever we can. Particularly in Ladakh, where troop positions and mountain warfare strategies are in our favour. China had not bargained for an upgraded infrastructure on the Indian side and had hoped that its geo-strategic domination in the region could be achieved at a very low cost. But with Modi personally taking stock of frontline positions with the Army chief, he has sent a message that India is willing to bear the costs once and for all to restore status quo. That China wasn’t prepared for such an offensive position is clear from its quick reaction to the “expansionism” remark and dire warnings that India can never match its defence budget. But the PM has clearly gone past such warnings. And though we may not be able to boycott all things Chinese, given their intrinsic worth in supply chain management, cost competitiveness and compliance of international standards, the Government is certainly wiring out wherever it can. While the loss of trade volumes may not be a dent to China’s export basket, it would definitely be sore about not having a stake in India’s infrastructure projects or consumption market.    

Modi’s assertive stand on the border also means that he has international endorsement of some sort and is clearly veering further to the West. The US, which has been hard-hit by the virus, won’t be giving up on China easily in an election year and is deploying strengths in the South China Sea to stare it down. Officially, it said its decision is influenced by the Indo-China tension along the LAC. By referencing India almost as its proxy, there seems to have been some confabulation on the subject. France has offered help too. The UK and Australia are offering citizenship to Hong Kong residents following a new Chinese law usurping their rights. Interestingly, even Myanmar has been calling out China for abetting rebels within its territory and seeking international help. Clearly, there must be some sort of consensus on encircling the dragon. Modi seems to have based his strategies on this post-pandemic understanding between nations. But will he be bolder to talk about Tibet and Xinjiang? Maybe India could begin by supporting resolutions on these. We have to come out of the cocoon syndrome and go for China’s Achilles heel.

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